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219 Media Analysts Made Predictions for the Packers game...20% picked the Bucs to win.
Hey Bucs fans! We analyzed all the picks made from the sports media industry. Here’s what the experts at outlets like ESPN, The Athletic, and NBC have for the game: Vegas Odds:
80% of analysts picked the Packers to win straight up
68% pick GB to cover the spread
70% pick OVER 52 points
Notable analyst take:
Rob Demovsky, ESPN“If there has been anything to gripe about in Matt LaFleur's highly successful two-year run as the Packers' coach, perhaps it is being a step slow to adjust. When these teams met in Week 6, the Bucs played zone coverage on 61% of quarterback Aaron Rodgers' dropbacks, and Rodgers had his only multi-interception game this season. And in general, the more teams have played zone against Rodgers over the past two years, the better they have fared. LaFleur and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett know what's coming in terms of coverage, and how they plan for it will dictate their level of success against a tough Tampa Bay defense."
My 2021 NFL Mock Draft after the Divisional Round - 1/17/21
The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs are now over, and there's a lot to really think about. In this mock draft, I have a few trades, including a block buster to help find the successor for a QB headed for Canton, as well as a blockbuster deal in which a team that is currently at dumpster fire status get's their lost draft capita back. Here's the mock draft. 1 - Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson Nothing to say here. They didn't call this season 'Tank for Trevor' for nothing, now did they? 2 - New York Jets - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU TRADE - Dolphins send 3rd overall pick to the New Orleans Saints, in exchange for 28th overall pick in 2020, Saints' 2nd round pick in 2020, Saints' 3rd round pick in 2020, Saints' 1st round pick in 2021, Saints 3rd round pick in 2021, and Saints 4th round pick in 2021, and maybe more... 3 - New Orleans Saints - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State The Drew Brees era has ended in New Orleans after a long, and impressive run. At 42 years of age, Brees walks away from the game as 13x pro bowler, a two time OPOTY winner, a super bowl champion (2009), and many other accolades and accomplishments under his belt. With the greatest QB in Saint's history now gone, it's time for New Orleans to fill in the big shoes left by the legend. The Saints are in no position to blow up their roster and tank in the wake of Brees' apparent retirement. They've got a 20+ million dollar WR in Michael Thomas, one of the highest paid RBs in Alvin Kamara, a star-studded OL, a great defense featuring Cameron Jordan, the breakout Trey Hendrickson, Demario Davis, Marshon Lattimore, and Malcolm Jenkins. This team really can't afford to tank for a top QB in 2022 like Sam Howell, or Spencer Rattler. What they can afford, is to give up a lot to receive a lot in Justin Fields. While his 2020 season wasn't anything to ride home about, Justin Fields is still more than likely going to have a great career in the NFL, and frankly what better place for him to go than the Big Easy, which will have a fantastic team around him unlike many other high end QBs in the draft. New Orleans will most certainly be giving up their first round picks for this year, and next year in order to land the coveted college football superstar, and set up their franchise for possibly another 12-15 years. 4 - Atlanta Falcons - Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama QB is at the top of Atlanta's wishlist, but if they are unable to land neither Wilson, nor Fields, then Atlanta could target one of the biggest receiving talents in CFB history, in Devonta Smith to create the best WR core in the entire NFL. Reportedly, Julio Jones has been the center of trade discussions with the Falcons, as they enter a new era after firing coach Dan Quinn. If Julio goes, then Smith, who is wickedly talented at route running, & separation, could provide the Falcon's receiving department with more than enough insurance if Jones departs. If Jones doesn't leave, then you've still got a ridiculous WR trio for at least the next two years, until Calvin Ridley hits free agency. 5 - Cincinnati Bengals - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon Sewell is a generational talent at OT, and if the former Outland Trophy winner were to fall to the Bengals at #5, then it's a no-brainer to get him to protect Burrow. Sewell is just 20 years old, he has plenty of room to improve, and with his youth, he could have a 15+ year career barring any injury. 6 - Philadelphia Eagles - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU Jalen Hurts has some promise in Philly, but he needs some targets. Neither Desean Jackson, nor Alshon Jeffrey can stay healthy, and all you have left is Greg Ward, who is becoming a free agent, and Travis Fulgham who fell off hard after a pretty impressive four game stretch earlier this year. It's time for Philadelphia to get a new WR1, and LSU's Ja'Marr Chase has all of the makings to be the next big thing in Philly. Chase's ridiculous 2019 campaign was so good, that he didn't even need to play in 2020 in order to cement his status as a top 10 pick. It's universally agreed that he is a top 10 level prospect, and his rookie year in Philly should be special. 7 - Detroit Lions - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama The three top receivers for Detroit will become free agents. While the Lions will likely retain at least one of them (probably going to be Golliday), they will need to reload in this department in order to keep their offense up. Jaylen Waddle was on pace for a ridiculous 2020 season, up until he broke his ankle last October, but in the games we did see him, he was arguably just as unguardable as Devonta Smith. While Smitty was the precise tactician in that stacked Bama receiving corps, Waddle was the dynamite playmaker, who was one of the top downfield threats in the country. Waddle will most certainly make Detroit explosive upon arrival. 8 - Carolina Panthers - Micah Parson, LB, Penn State I originally had Carolina taking Isaiah Simmons last season, but they passed on him for Derrick Brown instead. Ever since the departure of Luke Kuechly, the team has been in dire need of a leader at LB, and Penn State's Micah Parsons is the one to do it. Parsons can play the Panthers system, and his quickness, and instincts are incredible for the position. TRADE - Denver Broncos send 9th overall pick + more to the Houston Texans in exchange for QB Deshaun Watson, + a late draft pick. 9 - Houston Texans - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida The second big shocker of the night. In this scenario, Denver wins the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes, and in return Houston gets its lost draft capita from the O'Brien era. Houston could use this pick to get a lineman like Slater, or a DB like Surtain or Farley, but Kyle Pitts at this point is the best overall player on the board, and he's one of the best TE prospects to come out in a good while. Pitts will likely be the top receiver for Houston, even as a rookie, Deshaun Watson gets an acceptable trade for his sake, and Denver FINALLY gets its QB of the future. This was my favorite move on this mock draft. 10 - Dallas Cowboys - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama Completely unrelated, but I just wanted check in and see if y'all were still them boys...nah I'm just kidding. But in all honesty, the Cowboys need some help in their secondary, since they just lost Byron Jones a year ago, and Chidobe Awuzie, plus a few others enter free agency, leaving just 2nd year man Trevon Diggs by himself. Reunite him with his former college teammate, Patrick Surtain II, the son of Patrick Sr, who was a 3x pro bowler as a DB during his time in the league. Surtain is a smooth operating corner, whose efforts with the Tide in 2020 earned him SEC DPOTY honors. 11 - New York Giants - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame I think that the G-Men will get some pass rushing help in free agency, by way of someone like Haason Reddick or Matt Judon. If they do that, which they probably will, then they can go after the stud LB prospect of Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who had a huge 2020 season, winning the Butkus award, and helping Notre Dame make it to the College Football Playoff. JOK has some fantastic instincts, and some frightening closing speed to attack the backfield, and make plays. Not to mention, he is small enough to where he can drop back into coverage, but big enough not to get pushed around. 12 - San Francisco 49ers - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama It's become evident that Jimmy G just isn't the guy to hold the reins for the 49er offense in the coming years. He's pretty average as an NFL QB in general, and he's well below average for a QB that has a nine figure contract, and on top of that, he has played only one full season as the starter with San Fran, missing 13 games in 2018, and 10 games in 2020. While I expect Jimmy G to start next year, I think it's time for San Fran to get the next guy for the job. Mac Jones, a Heisman finalist this past season had just about as perfect of a season you could have for a college QB. Jones has pinpoint accuracy, and terrific decision making. I think that Jones will stew behind Garoppolo, and get coached up in his rookie season, then he will eventually get turned lose, in the 49ers offense. 13 - Los Angeles Chargers - Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern Slater has risen up draft boards from 2nd round status, to early 1st round status without even playing game during 2020. Many scouts highlight his brilliant performance against Ohio State in 2019, in which he stifled current NFL star edge rusher Chase Young in their showdown. Slater is versatile enough to play at OG as well, which is really where the Chargers could use some help at right now. 14 - Minnesota Vikings - Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech Minnesota's ability to protect Kirk Cousins was not too good in 2020. Cousins was sacked 39 times last season. Christian Darrisaw is one of the best offensive tackles in the class with good size for the position, and a ton of praise from scouts around the country. 15 - New England Patriots - Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama The Patriots could use some help up front for their DL. They allowed the 7th most rushing yards in the entire league across all of last regular season, allowing around 131 yards per game. When you compete in a conference that has runners like Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, the entire Ravens backfield, Josh Allen when he feels dangerous, and even Kansas City who isn't really bad at the run themselves, then you need to do what you can to slow that down. Meet Christian Barmore, the massive Alabama defensive lineman who gained a ton of positive attention thanks to his dominant performance against Ohio State in the national championship game. Barmore, in my opinion has ascended to the top of the IDL big board, thanks to his disruptiveness, his shocking quickness, and his ability to rush the passer, as well as a disrupt the running game make him a great get for the New England Patriots at 15th overall. 16 - Arizona Cardinals - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson Now while I did say that Najee Harris was the best RB in this class, I just feel that Travis Etienne fits the Cardinal's system more than Najee. Etienne reminds me a lot of Kenyan Drake, who hits free agency this spring. He's a long built, yet quick runner with a keen ability to catch the football. Etienne could make Arizona's defense a legit threat in the coming years. 17 - Las Vegas Raiders - Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami When it comes to drafting in the first round, the Raiders do their own thing. They've always been one to reach with their first round selection, showing this with picks like Kolton Miller, Karl Joseph, Damon Arnette, and most infamous as of recent, Clelin Ferrell, who they picked over Josh Allen, which I am still frustrated about to this day. I don't see the Raiders leaving this odd, and borderline comedic trend behind in Oakland, and as a matter of fact, I can see history repeating itself year after year. Jaelan Phillips, who used to play for UCLA, and was a 5 star prospect in high school, finally seemed to hit his stride after dealing with many injuries, and transferring across the country to Miami. Phillips athletic ability, and natural pass rushing tools were on display in the latter half of Miami's 2020 season, and while Phillips currently has a 2nd round grade, I don't see this stopping the Raiders from passing on him over other players projected to go in round 1 (however I think there is a lot more upside to Phillips than past 1st round picks by the Raiders). 18 - Miami Dolphins - Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa I've become extremely impressed with Nagurski Award winner, Zaven Collins, a defender that combines a staggering amount of size (6'4", 260 lbs), and a surprising amount of speed, and mobility in coverage that makes Collins such a difficult player to face. Collins can be an excellent addition to the Dolphins defense. 19 - Washington Football Team - Trey Lance, QB, ND State Washington is one QB away from being a legitimate contender in the NFC; not a 7-9 division leader, not fringe wild card team, a legit contender. Do I think this happens within a year? No. If Washington ends up with Trey Lance, they must use him right. He needs to be brought up in the shadows of a veteran QB for at least a season, before getting on the field, similar to what Kansas City did with Patrick Mahomes. The starter for that KC team with rookie Mahomes was Alex Smith. The potential starter for this team with a rookie Trey Lance: Alex Smith. Of course with the depletion of Smith's career because of that brutal leg injury in 2018, Smith may not be playing for Washington despite an inspiring comeback season, potentially the greatest comeback season ever for any NFL player. 20 - Chicago Bears - Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama The Outland Trophy winner for Alabama has moved around the entire line like many linemen do under coach Nick Saban. The Bears need some help up front, and Leatherwood is an extremely versatile option who is as good of a run blocker as they come. 21 - Indianapolis Colts - Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State T.Y. Hilton, who has really fallen off recently, as well as Zach Pascal, are both free agents for Indy. The only guy they've got is Michael Pittman, who they drafted just last year. While I expect big things from the former USC standout in his sophomore season, this WR group needs a ton of assistance due to it's lack of diversity. Ohio State's Chris Olave was one of Justin Fields' favorite targets across the QB's two year career with the Buckeyes. Olave is sound route runner, with good hands, and solid ability in getting separation. 22 - Tennessee Titans - Azeez Ojulari, LB, Georgia My team, the Tennessee Titans is probably the most desperate team for a franchise pass rusher. Seeing this pass rush week in, and week out was painful. They recorded the 3rd least sacks, and opposing QBs averaged a 97.5 passer rating (9th highest), when facing Tennessee. The weak pass rush gave QBs more time to make throws downfield, thus tiring the secondary, and making the defense slower. Azeez Ojulari is one of the better LB prospects in this draft class, showing the ability to play standup, but also along the edge, which is where he did really well at in his last season with the Bulldogs. Check out his games against Tennessee, and Alabama, and you will see how he was able to outclass many offensive linemen in those two games. TRADE - New York Jets send 23rd overall pick to the Cleveland Browns in exchange for the 26th overall pick, as well as a mid round pick in either 2021 or 2022. 23 - Cleveland Browns - Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan The Browns could be looking for a complementary edge rusher for Myles Garrett with Olivier Vernon departing in free agency. Vernon surged late in 2020, but a very unfortunate achilles injury derailed his hopes to make some more noise in the post season. Kwity Paye, who was projected to go 2nd-3rd round after 2019, exploded thanks to a chaotic performance against Minnesota, in which he had 3 sacks in a row on a 4th qtr drive. While Paye may have small stature, he has enough upside that should make Cleveland want to roll the dice on him. 24 - Pittsburgh Steelers - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama Pittsburgh has struggled to run the football. They were dead last in total rushing yards as a team, with the 5th least total rushing attempts, and the least YPC (3.6). James Conner and Benny Snell just don't seem to have the answers. But my solution is for Pittsburgh to dip into the pool known as RBU, aka Alabama. Najee Harris was the Doak Walker winner for a reason, becoming a wrecking ball bruiser, that just so happens to be able to catch the ball really well, and jump over defenders that are standing straight up. Najee can help make Big Ben, or the next Steeler QB's job easier with his versatile skillset for the position. 25 - Jacksonville Jaguars* - Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame The Fighting Irish have provided some of the best linemen in the NFL, like Ronnie Stanley, Zack Martin, and Quenton Nelson to name a few. Liam Eichenberg made the first team all ACC, and was a consensus All-American in 2020. He has overall very sound fundamentals, and I actually think he has the potential to be a legitimate lineman in the NFL. 26 - New York Jets* - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota As previously mentioned, the Jets will be selecting Zach Wilson with the 2nd overall pick. With Breshad Perriman entering free agency, the Jets need a receiving facelift in order to provide Wilson with the much needed tools for success. Bateman appears to have the potential to be a WR1, and help give the Jet's atrocious offense something to be excited about. 27 - Baltimore Ravens - Terrace Marshall Jr, WR, LSU The latest product of LSU, Marshall has been regularly playing since last year, getting reps alongside Ja'Marr Chase, and current pro bowl WR Justin Jefferson. The Ravens offense will get jolt of energy from Marshall, who is impressively built for the position, and who has a keen ability to run routes well. 28 - Miami Dolphins* - Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas The Dolphins use their second 1st round pick of the draft to help protect Tua. Samuel Cosmi has the positional versatility of a Bama lineman, with the build of the ideal OT. His large stature towers at 6'7", over 300 lbs. He'll add some legit experience points. 29 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Joseph Ossai, LB, Texas Thanks to the Buccaneers, I was right about TB (both the team and the player) pulling the upset in NOLA. Regardless, at the end of this season, the Bucs need to fill some much anticipated holes this offseason, and many players are likely gone. If Shaquil Barrett is one of those, then Tampa needs an edge rusher, and they need one pronto. 30 - Kansas City Chiefs - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC The Chiefs are about as perfect as you can get on offense, but some help up front won't hurt at all. Vera-Tucker from USC showed that he has the skill to play at IOL, and OT. While he is built for OG. 31 - Buffalo Bills - Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri A draft pick like this could be a steal for Buffalo, with Nick Bolton providing several bolts of energy, and momentum into these nights. Bolton is a quick, powerful linebacker, and one of the SEC's finest. 32 - Green Bay Packers - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue If your name is either Green Bay, Buffalo, or Kansas City then you can really get under the skin of defensive coordinators by taking this guy. Rondale Moore when healthy, is a juggernaut, who is one of the best receivers after the catch. If the Packers decide to finally take a WR in round1, then the earth could shatter. THANK YOU FOR READING, COMMENT WHAT YOU THINK, GOOD NIGHT
219 Media Analysts Made Predictions for the Bucs game...80% picked the Packers to win.
Hey Packers fans! Good luck today. Wanted to share our analysis on all the picks made from the sports media industry. Here’s what the experts at outlets like ESPN, The Athletic, and SI have for the game: Vegas Odds:
80% of analysts picked the Packers to win straight up
68% pick GB to cover the spread
70% pick OVER 52 points
Notable analyst take:
Rob Demovsky, ESPN“If there has been anything to gripe about in Matt LaFleur's highly successful two-year run as the Packers' coach, perhaps it is being a step slow to adjust. When these teams met in Week 6, the Bucs played zone coverage on 61% of quarterback Aaron Rodgers' dropbacks, and Rodgers had his only multi-interception game this season. And in general, the more teams have played zone against Rodgers over the past two years, the better they have fared. LaFleur and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett know what's coming in terms of coverage, and how they plan for it will dictate their level of success against a tough Tampa Bay defense."
NFL teams most likely to go from worst to first in 2020
We have talked a lot about the draft, biggest remaining needs for every NFL team, some breakout candidates and other stuff, so let’s now get back to more of a big picture and look at some teams from an angle of where could they go next season. In this article, I am analyzing those teams that finished fourth in their division this past year and why they could win it in 2020 or land at the bottom once again, plus an outlook where I actually see them. Of course much of this is about these eight teams and how much better or worse I feel about them than the general public, but it was heavily dependent on their three division rivals as well. The top half I could certainly see earn a playoff spot and surprise some people if everything goes right. After that a lot of my faith is more built around the lack of great competition and giving some hope to these respective fan bases. As the cliché goes – everybody is 0-0 right now. https://preview.redd.it/rs90lt6ckf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ddfc8945862472b52b5ef8c69076acde904c44c
1. Arizona Cardinals
Why they can win the division: Let’s just start with the main point here – this Cardinals squad has all the ingredients to make a big jump in 2020. I expect Kyler Murray to enter the superstar conversation in year two, after impressing with his arm talent and ability to extend plays in a (somewhat controversial) Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. Steve Keim managed to unload a bad David Johnson contract and basically acquire an elite receiver in DeAndre Hopkins for a second-round pick. Kenyan Drake now has a full offseason to learn this offense and make himself a major factor once again, following up an outstanding second half of the season once the Cardinals traded for him with Miami. He perfectly fits into this offense with a lot East-West based rushing from shotgun sets and his involvement in the pass game, including those quick throws as an extension of the rushing attack. Arizona’s defense should be a lot better with run-stoppers being added in the draft that fit their 3-4 base front with Utah’s Leki Fotu and LSU’s Rashard Lawrence, since they can stay in those packages against the other teams in their division running a lot of 12 and 21 personnel probably. Add to that a do-it-all player with ridiculous range and overall athleticism in Isaiah Simmons at eight overall, plus all the other guys being in their second year under DC Vance Joseph. I love Budda Baker as a missile from his safety spot and I think some of the other young guys on that unit will take a step forward, like second-year corner Byron Murphy, who I talked about last week. Now let’s get to rest of the West – every other team in that division has some issues. The 49ers are facing the objects of a potential Super Bowl hangover and some limitations with Jimmy G at the helm. The Seahawks have question marks on the edge on either side of the ball with Cedric Ogbuehi and Brandon Shell fighting for the starting gig at right tackle and Jadeveon Clowney still on the open market, with a bunch of draft picks these last couple of years having to step up. And the Rams had one of the worst O-lines in football last season and they lost some pieces on defense. The Cardinals already gave all these teams issues in 2019 and have now added pieces that were clearly missing when last matching up against each other. Why they could finish last again: Most importantly, I am still not completely sold on the Cardinals offensive line, with D.J. Humphries being signed to a rather expensive deal as a below-average left tackle, third-rounder Josh Jones – while earning a late first-round grade from me – still needing an overhaul on his footwork before he can slide in at right tackle and guard Justin Pugh finally having played a full 16 games for the first time since 2015 last season. NFL coaches had a lot of time to study Kliff Kingsbury’s Air-Raid offense, which when you break it down is pretty simplistic in the amount of schemes they run. Yes, he diversified it a little as last season went along, going under center and running some pro-style rushing plays, but at its core, you can learn how to create some issues for all those mesh concepts and spread sets. As far as the Cardinals defense goes, it is more about pieces than proven commodities. Patrick Peterson is seemingly on the decline, they are thin in the secondary and could Chandler Jones follow soon, after he has been one of the most underrated pass-rushers in the league for a while now? You are staring the reigning NFC champs in the eyes, a team that was a few inches away from earning a playoff bye and another squad that went to the Super Bowl just two years ago. This is probably the best division in the entire league. Bottom line: I still believe the 49ers have done enough to repeat as division champs, re-tooling for all the losses they have suffered this offseason. However, I’m feeling pretty good about the Cardinals earning a wildcard spot. While I believe in the Seahawks quarterback and the Rams head coach respectively to not allow their teams to not have throwaway seasons, I also see enough issues with those squads to make me believe the Cardinals could have the second-best year of anybody in the West. To me they are pretty clearly the best of these eight teams, because they have a young phenom at quarterback, stars at pretty much every position, a different type of system around them and what I’d like to call “juice” coming into 2020. https://preview.redd.it/anrr9erfkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=5655b4452baff2691a0e060e8d70918d58801a4c
2. Detroit Lions
Why they can win the division: Matt Stafford is back healthy and when he was in the lineup last season, this was a team that defeated the Eagles, Chargers and only didn’t finish the job against the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs because of some crazy stuff going on late. The veteran QB stood at 19 touchdowns compared to five picks and was playing at a near-MVP type level. However, Detroit’s identity will be built on the run game with re-investments in the offensive line as well as adding D’Andre Swift to form a dynamic one-two punch with him and Kerryon Johnson. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones may be the most underrated receiving duo to go with Danny Amendola as a tough guy in the slot and T.J. Hockenson coming into year two as a top-ten pick a year ago, having shown flashes when he was healthy. The defense is finally starting to take shape with third-overall Jeffrey Okudah as an elite corner prospect being added to an underrated secondary, Jamie Collins being a chess piece in the front seven after already having worked well with Matt Patricia and some young guys up front trying to prove themselves to go with the versatile Trey Flowers. Maybe more importantly than the Lions themselves – Nobody else got that much better and none of the other three really stand out to me. Other than the Vikings probably – who had the advantage of making a record-breaking 15 selections – the Lions might have had the best draft within the division. Thanks to that last-place schedule, they get to face the Redskins in the East (instead of Eagles & Cowboys) and Cardinals in the West, who I just talked about taking a step forward, but are still a better draw than the reigning conference champions or possibly having to travel to Seattle. I believe that new regime in Detroit has finally built an identity on both sides of the ball with the heavy investments in the run game and back-seven on defense. Winning ten games might earn you a division title, if everybody plays each other tough. Why they could finish last again: Can these guys finally stay healthy? Matt Stafford to my surprise played a full 16 games in eight straight years before last season, but a lot of that had to do with his toughness to fight through pain and he had major issues with that shoulder early on in his career before basically breaking his back after putting the team on it for the last decade. Kerryon Johnson has missed 14 of 32 possible starts and he has never carried the ball more than 118 times a season. Their receiving corp has been banged up quite a bit too. More glaring even – how will all these additions of former Patriots players work out? Can Matt Patricia build a New England 2.0 in Michigan or is he just bringing in players he knows will listen to him and the way he wants things to be done? Detroit could also rely on a lot of rookies to be immediate impact players – possibly two new starting guards on offense, running back D’Andre Swift probably sharing the load with Kerryon, Jeffrey Okudah having to immediately become their CB1 and Julian Okwara being asked to become a much more consistent player if they give him major snaps. And I recently talked about how their uncertainty at punter could be an issue for their ball-control, defense-minded style of play. They also have an early bye (week five), which I’m never a big fan of, after facing the Bears, Packers, Cardinals and Saints, which probably includes three playoff teams. If Chicago can get any competent QB play, all these teams should be highly competitive. Bottom line: I don’t think any team in this division wins more than ten games. Unfortunately I don’t see the Lions go over that mark themselves either. The Packers won’t come out victorious in so many close games (8-1 in one-possession affairs), the Vikings have lost a few proven commodities and look for young talent to immediately replace those and the Bears still have a quarterback competition going on. So if Detroit can do any better than just split the season series with those three teams, I see them finishing above .500, but ten wins is the ceiling for me. In terms of the competition inside the division, the Lions may be my number one team in this conversation, but I see a much clearer path to things crashing down for Matt Patricia and them having another disappointing season than I do with the Cardinals. No team in this division may finish below that 8-8 mark. https://preview.redd.it/7ivo914ikf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=d029ddd274b78e78f5bc932d00086b8c697a466e
3. Miami Dolphins
Why they can win the division: When you ask the general public, the Buffalo Bills right now are the favorites to win the AFC East, but they haven’t done so since 1995 and they still have to prove they really are that team. The Patriots lost several pieces on defense and Tom Brady of course, which probably leads them to starting a quarterback, who over his four career pass attempts has thrown more touchdowns to the opposing team than to his own. The Jets are still building up that roster, with GM Joe Douglas trying to plant seeds on burnt earth, and they face a BRUTAL schedule. So Miami has a lot of things going in their favor for an organization that I believe in what they are trying to build. Depending on what happens at quarterback, you could have a veteran in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was by far the best inside the division in several key categories last season and/or Tua Tagovailoa, who had one of the most prolific careers we have seen from anybody in the SEC. They added at least two new starters on the O-line, they now have one of the premiere cornerback trios in the league with the all-time highest paid player at the position in Byron Jones and first-round pick Noah Igbinoghene to go with Xavien Howard and with some added beef up front, they are finally looking a lot like what Brian Flores had in New England. DeVante Parker really broke out over the second half of 2019 and Miami should have a much better rushing attack because of the additions up front and two quality committee backs in Jordan Howard and Matt Breida being added. They have two other young pass-catchers ready to break out this upcoming season in tight-end Mike Gesicki and a UDFA receiver from a year ago in Preston Williams. Whenever Tua’s name is called upon, he will be a perfect fit for Chan Gailey’s horizontal passing game. Why they could finish last again: As much as I like what I see from this entire organization, it is probably just a year too early for Miami. So many young players could be thrown into the fire and a lot of them I look at as needing that experience – 18th overall pick Austin Jackson (USC) is more of a developmental tackle still with his footwork and hand-placement issues, 30th overall pick Noah Igbinoghene (Auburn) has only played cornerback for two years and was bailed out by his athletic tools at times, third-rounder Brandon Jones has to develop more of a feel in deep coverage and at least one more rookie lineman will likely start for them. Even outside of this year’s draft class, they already had several players on their roster that are still moving towards their prime. Whether you look at last year’s first-rounder Christian Wilkins, a lot of second- and third-year pass-catchers or their young linebackers outside of Kyle Van Noy. The Bills are entering year four of that turn-around under Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane, the Patriots still have the greatest coach of all time and will be a tough matchup solely based on that and the Jets at least have people playing for their jobs, plus a very talented young quarterback I still believe in. As much as I doubt Adam Gase, as long as Sam Darnold doesn’t get mono again, the offense should at least be competent, and the defense could potentially have a top-five player at every level with All-Pro Bowl safety Jamal Adams, an 85-million dollar linebacker in C.J. Mosley and my number one prospect in last year’s draft on the interior D-line with Quinnen Williams. Bottom line: As I mentioned before, the Bills are the front-runners in this division for me. As much respect as I have for Bill Belichick, I haven’t seen enough from Jarrett Stidham to make me a believer and he shrunk in some big moments at Auburn. The Jets to me could be a lot better than they were in 2019 and still go 6-10 just because of the type of schedule they are up against. So the Dolphins to me could easily finish anywhere from second to fourth, depending on how some of the players on that roster progress. I wouldn’t bet on them actually making the playoffs, but they could absolutely be a pain in the butt for some of the better teams in the AFC and in 2021 they might be the pick here. https://preview.redd.it/nme3explkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=3998c6026125c1b9b48438e3fc9afaf9601b116e
4. Los Angeles Chargers
Why they can win the division: First and foremost, this Chargers defense is absolutely loaded with no real hole that you can point to. Derwin James is back healthy after a first-team All-Pro rookie campaign, Chris Harris Jr. comes in to make this secondary one the elite units in the NFL to go with two more Pro Bowlers among it and they have some guys I expect to break out like Jerry Tillery, Drue Tranquill and Nasir Adderley. In terms of having matchup pieces and a versatile pass rush to challenge Kansas City, nobody in the league may be on the same level as these guys. Offensively, Ihave talked about how the left tackle spot is concern for L.A. with a battle between Sam Tevi and Trey Pipkins for the starting job, but the other four spots are as good as they have been in a while, acquiring Pro Bowl guard Trai Turner via trade, signing a top five right tackle in Bryan Bulaga and getting Mike Pouncey back healthy. Tyrod Taylor can steer the ship and even if Justin Herbert is thrown into the fire – which I wouldn’t recommend – they have the skill-position players and willingness to run the ball to take pressure off those guys. While the Chiefs return 20 of 22 starters from a year ago, this wouldn’t be the first time we saw a Super Bowl champion have some issues the following season and as much as we want to hype up the Broncos and Raiders, both their quarterbacks (and other players of course as well) have a lot to prove still. Outside of KC, the Chargers likely have the smallest changes to what they do other than moving on from Philip Rivers and we saw that formula work the year prior, when they challenged Kansas City until the very end for the division crown and the conference’s top seed potentially. While they probably would have liked to bring in Tom Brady over the offseason, the fact they decided against signing Cam Newton to a roster that is ready to win right now, shows you the confidence they have in that quarterback room. Why they could finish last again: I’m not a huge fan of Derek Carr, but the Chargers will probably have the worst quarterback in the division in 2020. And their starting left tackle could be the worst in the entire league. As good as their defense will probably be, you can not consistently win games in which your offense doesn’t put up 20+ points in the league today – especially when all these teams in their division have spent so much on acquiring offensive firepower these last couple of years. I believe all three of their division rivals got better this offseason and the Chargers spent their top draft pick (sixth overall) on a young quarterback, who might not even help them win games this season. As I already mentioned, Kansas City brings back almost their entire starting lineups and they went 12-4 despite Mahomes seemingly having his knee cap facing the sideline while laying on his back. I have uttered my thoughts on Denver several times now, which you can read up on later. As for Las Vegas’ new team, they did start last season 6-4 and just heavily invested into their two major issues – wide receiver and linebacker. And while I don’t like to talk about it – injuries have been a huge issue for this Chargers team in recent years and I don’t really know what it is even, but I can’t assume that they all of a sudden can stay healthy. Bottom line: In terms of talent on the roster outside of the quarterback position, you could make a pretty compelling argument that the Chargers are ahead of all the other teams on this list. That’s the reason they have a pretty high floor of finishing around .500 and if everything works out, they could absolutely be a playoff contender. However, for this exercise in particular, I believe their upside is capped by what they have under center. Tyrod Taylor can be a top-20 quarterback in the NFL this season and in terms of upside, Justin Herbert has all the tools to become a difference-maker once he steps on the field, but they don’t have the explosiveness the Chiefs or the Broncos have for that matter. With so much continuity on a team that has the best player in the entire league, I can’t go against the Chiefs and in the end we are evaluating the chances to actually win the division. https://preview.redd.it/rywropjokf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed77a7303af810b862abb2100c4f0b86841a2d38
5. Washington Redskins
Why they can win the division: These guys are very reminiscent of the 49ers with their defensive line, in terms of having invested a lot of high draft picks into the unit these last couple of years and now with that second overall pick bringing in a true stud from Ohio State – this time in Chase Young. When you look at all those guys up front – with the Bama boys patrolling the middle, Matt Ioannidis capable of moving around the front, Montez Sweat looking to break out in year two and Ryan Kerrigan still being there as a productive veteran – they will wreak some havoc this season. Ron Rivera could finally bring some structure to this organization and help them turn it around on defense with the addition of an old companion in Thomas Davis, plus some high-upside players like Reuben Foster and Fabian Moreau looking to prove themselves. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins had a very underwhelming rookie campaign, but he clearly wasn’t ready to be out there and found himself in a bad situation in terms of the support system around him. I like a lot of their young skill-position players the front office has surrounded him with, when you look at Terry McLaurin trying to become a young star in this league, who produced despite shaky quarterback play last season, Kelvin Harmon and Antonio Gandy-Golden being two big-bodied targets I liked these last two drafts, Derrius Guice hopefully finally being able to stay healthy to lead this backfield and this year’s third-round pick Antonio Gibson being a chess piece that you can manufacture touches for. Somebody I forgot to mention in this discussion recently is Steven Sims Jr., who is a jitterbug with the ball in his hands. New offensive coordinator Scott Turner will implement a system that should make life easier on his second-year signal-caller as well, while relying heavily on the run game. Why they could finish last again: Haskins is by far the least proven QB of the bunch, with Daniel Jones even being head and shoulders above him in their respective rookie seasons. No pass-catcher outside of Terry McLaurin had any major production to speak. Counting on a 37-year old Thomas Davis to not only be a leader for them, but also make plays on the field, could create issues, and Washington lost some pieces in the secondary. This offseason is a challenge for any team, that is looking to implement a new system on each side of the ball, but I think especially for a motivator like Rivera, who can give his squad a heartbeat and push them to success, not being there in person with those guys will hurt. Most importantly however, this division to me will be a two-man race between the Eagles and Cowboys – as it has been for a while now. They both will likely have top ten quarterbacks, better receiving corps, better offensive lines and more experienced defenses. The Giants may not blow anybody away coming into 2020, but looking at the two matchups from last year between them and the Redskins, Big Blue beat them 24-3 the first time around, when Daniel Jones threw one touchdown compared to two interceptions and then he diced them up for five TDs and no picks in week 16. The one area Washington would have had the clear upper hand was with their front-four, but New York just invested a lot of draft capital into their O-line to prevent that. Just go through the Redskins’ schedule and show me more than six wins. I dare you. Bottom line: These last two sentences really say it all. Even if Philly and Dallas split the season series and Washington can get a game off either one of them, it will be tough to turn around this squad as quickly as this season – with reduced practice time and team activities – to a point where they can finish above both of them. Both of them could easily win double-digit games in 2020 and while I think the Redskins are on the right track if Haskins looks more like the Ohio State version of himself, other than their defensive line, no unit for them is ready to compete for the division quite yet. Just going through their schedule in an objective manner, it is tough to find any lay-ups and say Washington has some baseline of wins they count on. To not have them any lower than this is more due to the respect for Riverboat Ron and how high I was on a lot of the guys they drafted recently. https://preview.redd.it/szpawv9rkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=62ca5fe882d8155d83eb3328e9bf1f1681a17384
6. Jacksonville Jaguars
Why they can win the division: I was going back and forth between my number six and seven teams, because the Jaguars are projected to pick first overall come next April for a reason – they did lose a lot of pieces. However, to me it came down to the fact that the AFC South might be won at 9-7 or 10-6 and this coaching staff actually has to win to keep their jobs. There is a lot noise about the Colts, but when you go back to last season, Philip Rivers was a turnover machine with serious questions about his arm strength. Bill O’Brien made some very questionable decisions for Houston and Tennessee is counting on a formula that is built on a 250-banger running the ball 25+ times and Ryan Tannehill finally repeating a career year, as they are coming off an AFC title game appearance. As far as Jacksonville goes, Gardner Minshew was the highest-graded rookie quarterback according to PFF and altogether I would have put him second only behind Kyler Murray. D.J. Chark broke out as one of the young star receivers and I had a first-round grade on Colorado’s Laviska Shenault if he can be healthy, because his talent is off the charts. I think the O-line would have benefitted from another tackle to kick Cam Robinson inside to guard, but those guys are some road-graders to make the run game work. Defensively the only real contributor from that Sacksonville group a couple of years ago who actually wants to be there is Myles Jack, but I really like their young duo off the edge in first-rounders Josh Allen last year and now K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU). There are some questions about the back-end, but they were built front-to-back with a lot of zone coverage behind it and depending on the development of ninth overall pick C.J. Henderson, they can roll away from him matching up with the opposing team’s number one receiver. Avoiding some of the better AFC squads altogether is pretty sweet as well, to go with facing no playoff team from last year outside their division until the middle of November. Why they could finish last again: I’m just not sure if all of these players are ready to fight for that coaching staff and organization. Two of their remaining veterans (Leonard Fournette and Yannick Ngakoue) have openly talked about how they want to be traded, they only have a few actually proven commodities on that entire roster and with the way they have unloaded big cap numbers, they have set themselves up for a true rebuild potentially, as they are expected to be in the Trevor Lawrence-Justin Fields sweepstakes come next April. Even if they can get a few breaks and the division is up for grabs, does this organization even want to win this season? If not for the injury to Jacoby Brissett in the middle of the season, all three other teams in that division would have almost certainly finished above .500 and the Colts are actually the team that improved by far the most among them. That Texans, who have actually won the South four of the last five years, including last season, may be the smallest challenge and still sweep Jacksonville. Vegas rarely misses completely and the Jaguars right now are the odds-on favorite to pick first overall come next April, with an NFL-low OveUnder of 4.5 wins on the season. And as favorable as the early portion of their schedule looks like right, check out this eight-game stretch after their week seven bye – at Chargers, vs. Texans, at Packers, vs. Steelers, vs. Browns, at Vikings, vs. Titans, at Ravens. Ouch. They might go winless over that period. Bottom line: The Jaguars to me are a very interesting team, because I believe they have accumulated a bunch of young talent, which gets lost a little when you see all the names that aren’t there anymore. There is a lot to like about this roster, when you look at what these players could develop into, but that doesn’t mean they will have success this year already. The Colts have the best 53 currently in the division (or 55 now), the Texans have the best quarterback and the Titans are coming off an AFC Championship game appearance. Gardner Minshew could make this kind of a tough decision if they end up picking anywhere after first overall and I think some of those other kids will put up pretty good numbers, but they are still pretty clearly fourth in the South as for now. https://preview.redd.it/5myv276vkf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=7fb25f47d0759e9b5a07876ea01787898c6cc817
7. Carolina Panthers
Why they can win the division: Nobody knows for sure what Matt Rhule and his new coaching staff will throw at them. Joe Brady gets to work with Teddy Bridgewater once again, who he already coached in New Orleans – so there will be familiarity for him in this system and they already “speak the same language”. That young receiving corp with D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, free agency addition Robby Anderson and even an up-and-coming tight-end in Ian Thomas is pretty underrated actually, plus of course they have one of the truly elite weapons out of the backfield in Christian McCaffrey, who is probably set to break his own RB reception record once again. The Panthers defense-only draft has brought them a monster in the middle in Derrick Brown (Auburn), a really talented edge rusher in Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State) on the opposite of last year’s rookie stud Brian Burns, a super-rangy safety with linebacker size in Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois), what I think is a starting corner in Troy Pride Jr. (Notre Dame) and some other pieces in the secondary. The talent is clearly there and now you bring in a scheme that is probably going to be unique for the NFL level as well, when you look at that 3-3-5 Baylor ran under Rhule and defensive coordinator Phil Snow. As much as we want to praise our legends of the game, the quarterbacks of the two front-runners in this division will be 41 and 43 years old respectively and let’s not forget that Atlanta started out last season 1-7. Why they could finish last again: Especially this offseason, without certainty if there will be anything like training camp or even a real preseason, that completely new staff with new systems they are trying to teach will certainly have some growing pains. Bridgewater has been a top-20 starting QB maybe one year of his career and even when he was applauded for the way he filled in for Drew Brees last season, he finished dead-last in intended air yards among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts. How will that mesh with a lot of vertical targets around him? When he has those guys running free on slants and dig routes, the ball will get there, but will he be willing to throw that deep post or give his guys a chance on go-balls? Defensively they are counting on a lot of young players and they have nobody to even come close to replacing Luke Kuechly, as well as making the switch to an unproven scheme possibly, if they actually use some of those 3-3-5 looks coming over from Baylor. When you look at Rhule’s track-record, it always took him until year two to show improvement and then in that third season is when those teams can really make some noise. And that was in the AAC and Big 12 respectively. Now he is in the NFC South with a team that just went 13-3 in the Saints and a Bucs squad that already was 7-9 and lost six of those games by one score, only because despite finishing fifth in takeaways, they ranked in the bottom five in turnover differential due to easily leading the league with 41 giveaways. That should get a lot better with Tom Brady coming in, who has never even quite thrown half of Jameis Winston’s 30 interceptions in any of his 20 years in the league. Even the Falcons – for as poorly as they started last season – went 6-2 after really coming together and making some changes in their bye week last season. Bottom line: The Panthers are clearly the most unproven team in this division. While new systems that haven’t been scouted yet certainly have an advantage in terms of game-planning early on, especially in this offseason with heavily limited live reps most likely, that might equal a net minus. You have to root for a guy like Teddy Bridgewater and the way he has worked his way up to a starting spot again, but I just don’t look at him as a surefire franchise signal-caller. The other three teams in the South all have top ten quarterbacks in the league in my opinion and much more continuity around them. Until the Panthers finally get to their bye week at the start of December, I don’t see them winning more than four of those twelve games. At that point they may have their eyes on a different goal already, if Teddy B isn’t the clear answer under center. https://preview.redd.it/y7agj2n2lf751.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=221af0a1f689d3b19d5e250fac0b58a35877edad
8. Cincinnati Bengals
Why they can win the division: We’re not that far away from 2015, when the Bengals won the AFC North with a 12-4 record as the fifth year in a row making the playoffs. Since then this is the first time I feel like there really is change happening with this team. Marvin Lewis was replaced by a young Zac Taylor, trying to prove himself to the league, they drafted Heisman trophy winner Joe Burrow first overall to replace as average a quarterback as we have had over the last decade in Andy Dalton and the front office finally spent some money in free agency. While you would think a quarterback going first overall usually comes into a situation, where he is devoid of talent around him, Cincinnati suddenly has one of the better group of skill-position players in the entire league, assuming A.J. Green is back healthy. Tyler Boyd is a stud in the slot, who will be Burrow’s version of Justin Jefferson, a 50-50 ball specialist in second-round pick Tee Higgins (Clemson) matches perfectly with Burrow’s expertise of winning with ball-placement and if they get anything from former first-rounder John Ross at least as a decoy with his speed, that’s a plus. I expect Joe Mixon to be among the league leader’s in running back receptions and be more effective in space with those receivers around him as well. The signings the Bengals have made on defense gives them a lot more talent and complements very well what they already had. D.J. Reader is one of the most underrated defensive linemen in the league and frees everybody up along the front, they completely overhauled that linebacker group, which was a major issue these last couple of years, they brought in a starting CB2 and nickel from Minnesota to pair up with William Jackson III, who is ready to announce himself as one of the best corners in football, and Von Bell is a great match with the rangy free safety Jessie Bates. Why they could finish last again: As talented as all those guys throwing, catching and running the ball may be, it all starts with what’s happening up front and the Bengals offensive line is still in transition. They could have two of the worst starters in the league at both guard spots and right tackle once again, with the prior ones close to reaching that bust status and Bobby Hart still somehow having a starting job. As great as Joe Burrow was last year at LSU and how clean his evaluation was, how much better than Andy Dalton will he be right away, especially going up against those scary defensive fronts inside his division? Defensively they could easily have six new starters, which obviously can be looked at as a positive sign, considering they allowed 20+ points in all but two games last season, but there is also a lack of continuity and reduced time to fit all those pieces together. Cincinnati’s coaching staff hasn’t really proven anything yet and they will be facing a massacre of a schedule, with three occasions of back-to-back road games and while three of their final four games of the season are at home, they will face the Cowboys, Steelers and Ravens, to go with a trip to Houston in-between. If they don’t beat the Chargers in the season-opener, they probably don’t get that first W until week four against the Jaguars and then they have to hope they can sneak out another one until their bye week. Baltimore is tied with Kansas City for the highest projected win total with reigning MVP coming into just his third season, Pittsburgh is favored to make the playoffs with Big Ben back under center and Cleveland was the offseason favorite in 2019, while fielding an even better roster this year. Bottom line: I feel bad for putting this team last, because I thought Joe Burrow was the top quarterback and definitely worthy of that number one pick and the Bengals finally spent big money in free agency to retool the defense. To me this is less about them than the Ravens, who just were the number one overall seed in the playoffs at 14-2 and haven’t done anything other than get better themselves, a Steelers team that made a run at the playoffs with the worst quarterback play in the league now getting Ben back and a Browns roster that is among the top ten league-wide in most people’s opinion. Still, there is a lot to like about this team at the skill-positions, which is probably behind only Cleveland in terms all the weapons they have, some young standouts on defense and hope that all of this brings a fresh breath of air. If you enjoyed this content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece (with video clips) - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/06/16/nfl-teams-most-likely-to-go-from-worst-to-first-in-2020/ You can also listen to my breakdown on Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9kCcuPobNU
Division: NFC West Record: 9-7 (3rd in Division, 7th in Conference) After a wildly successful 2019 season, the Los Angeles Rams had high hopes for 2020. It was truly Super Bowl or bust for the team, and unfortunately as high as the expectations were the end result was disappointment almost as high. Despite the shortcomings (and media doubt), the team is still in great shape to have another great year and playoff hopes are completely within shooting distance. Here's a brief summary of some of the positives and negatives on the 2019 season. Positives
Over half of our draft class showed real signs of being potential starters for 2020. Bobby Evans and David Edwards stepped in due to injuries and had success. Taylor Rapp was one of the leagues best rookie defenders, and will definitely start in 2020. David Long Jr filled in due to injury occasionally through the year and showed a glimpse of the player he could be after some development.
Cooper Kupp emerging as a potential top 10 WR. I'm just going to lean into the joke, because the dude is honestly the scrappiest WR we've had in a long time, and he puts in serious work. He can make a decent argument for being in the conversation as the best route runner in the NFL.
Despite the season being a disappointment as mentioned above, the fact that as a Rams fan I can look at a year where we went 9-7 and narrowly missed the playoffs as a disappointment has to be viewed as a positive. I've been a fan for my entire life, and wallowing in the years from 2006-2016 has been pretty rough. To have expectations again is nice.
Negatives
Jared Goff, the most frustrating QB next to Jameis Winston. His rookie year can hardly be counted against him, so after seeing him have a pretty successful 2017 and then a flat out great 2018 was tremendous, and really set the bar high in 2019. To be frank, Jared Goff managed to disappoint in many games this year. Almost off of this disappointment can be attributed to overconfidence rather than bad decisions. Goff doesn't have an issue reading defenses consistently rather he has an issue with thinking he can fit throws in tight windows that he can't consistently place. Taking what the defense gives him has been a problem for Goff throughout his career and in 2019 it was on full display.
We had one of the most predictable defenses in 2019, and having star players like Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey would rightfully make fans think some level of razzle dazzle could be drawn up. We never really saw that in 2019 and teams took advantage.
Our run game never could be consistently established. Our offense starts with the OL and the zone blocking scheme, and with the decline of Todd Gurley, and many injuries sustained on the OL, the run game could hardly ever get established.
2020 Coaching Staff/Changes
Position
Name (* indicates new coach)
Notes
Sean McVay
Head Coach
Total babe
Joe Berry
Assistant Head Coach/Linebackers Coach
Thad Bogardus
Assistant Defensive Line Coach/Defensive Quality Control
Dope name
John Bonamego
Special Teams Coordinator*
Previously with the Detroit Lions
Thomas Brown
Running Backs Coach*
Previously with the South Carolina Gamecocks
Liam Coen
Assistant Quarterbacks Coach
Previously WRs coach
John Cooley
Defensive Quality Control*
Previously Akron CBs Coach
Andy Dickerson
Assistant Offensive Line Coach
Ejiro Evero
Safeties Coach
Dope name
Eric Henderson
Defensive Line Coach
Aaron Kromer
Run Game CoordinatoOffensive Line Coach
Zak Kromer
Offensive Quality Control
lol nepotism
Bill Nayes
Assistant to the Head Coach
insert The Office joke here
Kevin O'Connell
Offensive Coordinator*
Previously with the Washington REDACTED
Wes Phillips
Tight Ends Coach
Aubrey Pleasant
Cornerbacks Coach
Zac Robinson
Assistant Wide Receivers Coach
Was Assistant QB coach in 2019
Chris Shula
Outside Linebackers Coach
Brandon Staley
Defensive Coordinator*
Previously with the Denver Broncos as OLB Coach
Shane Waldron
Pass Game Coordinator
Eric Yarbor
Wide Receivers Coach
Key Changes
The loss of Defensive Coordinator Wade Phillips is a bummer, but something that was absolutely needed. This series I believe was the nail in the coffin for Wade's tenure with the Rams. And while the man has a historic legacy as a coach, ultimately he has a noticeable trend of running the same schemes and without much adjusting throughout the season, and opposing teams inevitably catch on to what he's doing and they counter. This same trend seemed to happen Denver as well. There is no doubt that the son of Bum will be missed, but ultimately I think Wade's hire was primarily to serve as a mentor for McVay while he figured out what it was like to be a head coach in the NFL. Now that McVay has three full seasons under his belt, that need is no longer there. Brandon Staley can be the energy the Rams defense desperately needs, and he could provide a similar spark that McVay set off when he first arrived.
The bigger bummer is the loss of Special Teams Coordinator John "Bones" Fassell. I know what you're thinking, how can a STC possible be more valuable than the legendary Wade Phillips? Coach Bones had been our STC since 2012, as well as serving as interim head coach in 2016 after the firing of Jeff Fisher. Bones was a true leader of men, and is in the conversation of the best STC in the league. In memorandum of this loss, I want to share my all time favorite Coach Bones moment
Free Agent Signings and Departures
Key Signings
Player
Position
Former Team
Contract Details
Michael Brockers
Defensive Tackle
LA Rams
3 y31.5 million
Andrew Whitworth
Offensive Tackle
LA Rams
3 y30 million
Austin Blythe
Offensive Guard/C
LA Rams
1 y3.9 million
A'shawn Robinson
Defensive Tackle
Detroit Lions
2 y17 million
Leonard Floyd
OLB/Defensive End
Chicago Bears
1 y10 million
Key Departures
Player
Position
New Team
Contract Details
Greg Zuerline
Kicker
Dallas Cowboys
3 y7.5 million
Todd Gurley
Running Back
Atlanta Falcons
1 y5.5 million
Dante Fowler Jr
OLB/Defensive End
Atlanta Falcons
3 y30 million
Cory Littleton
Linebacker
Las Vegas Raiders
3 y36 million
Marquis Christian
Safety
New York Jets
1 y2 million
Jojo Natson
PKR
Cleveland Browns
1 y1 million
Clay Matthews
OLB/Defensive End
Free Agent
n/a
Eric Weddle
Safety
Free Agent
n/a
Nickell Robey-Coleman
Cornerback
Philadelphia Eagles
1 y1.35 million
Lets start our discussion with the departures, because we lost a lot of key starters. Dante Fowler, Cory Littleton, Clay Mathew, and Eric Weddle were four starters on our defense, with NRC being our primary slot DB. Weddle was more of a leader than an anchor on defense, and did a remarkable job mentoring his replacement in rookie Taylor Rapp. Clay Mathews had a nice season but at his age is certainly replaceable. What isn't going to be replaceable is Cory Littleton, who might be one of the most underrated linebackers in the NFL. His coverage ability is going to be sorely missed and leaves the linebacker room, which was already weak, almost defunct. The strategy regarding our free agent signings is a little mysterious. In early free agency we signed Floyd and Robinson, which filled two holes left by Fowler and Brockers, who had originally signed with the Baltimore Ravens. A few weeks afterwards Brockers offer was rescinded by the Ravens, and he resigned at a lofty amount. This effectively leaves the team with a log jam at defensive tackle, with two DTs that do virtually the same thing to be paired with Aaron Donald. I'll explain later in this post how I think our defense might look, but it's certainly a puzzling signing. Resigning Whitworth, in what should be his final contract, is a nice bonus even if it was for another larger than anticipated deal. It gives our numerous young OL talent a wonderful vet to learn from, and despite media reports our offensive line room actually isn't bad. It's just incredibly young, and we have many sophomores who look to make jumps this year.
2020 Draft Class/Undrafted Free Agents
Round
Pick
Player
Position
College Team
2
52
Cam Akers
Running Back
Florida State
2
57
Van Jefferson
Wide Receiver
Florida
3
84
Terrell Lewis
OLB/DE
Alabama
3
104
Terrell Burgess
Safety
Utah
4
136
Brycen Hopkins
Tight End
Purdue
6
199
Jordan Fuller
Safety
Ohio State
7
234
Clay Johnston
Linebacker
Baylor
7
248
Sam Sloman
Kicker
Miami (OH)
7
250
Tremayne Anchrum
Offensive Line
Clemson
Cam Akers and Van Jefferson are the only players on offensive who should make an immediate impact. Akers could battle for the starting position with Gurley out, and Jefferson could battle Josh Reynolds for WR3. The intriguing pick is Terrell Lewis, who could have been a 1st rounder if healthy. He fills a major need at EDGE for the team, and if he works out will be a massive value pick. Brycen Hopkins will battle with Johnny Mundt for the final TE spot, which may be a tall order given Mundt's proficiency on special teams. But he's a good prospect to replace Gerald Everett, who will demand a larger contract next year. Tremayne Anchrum is probably a longshot to make the team, especially with no preseason games considering we have a logjam of OL prospects with Bobby Evans, David Edwards, Joe Notebloom, among others. For more information on the UDFA list, check out this link. The interesting choices are Easop Winston, Josh Love, and Bryce Perkins. Easop I think may have a decent shot at making the roster, while Josh Love and Bryce Perkins may be able to battle it out for the backup position. The Rams will look to shed future salary cap space where ever possible, and both players have decent ceilings and could be a cheap backup alternative for Goff, but both will have to usurp AAF legend John Wolford who is the leader in the clubhouse.
Projected Depth Chart/Scheme Changes
Offense (* indicates rookie)
Position
1st
2nd
3rd
QB
Jared Goff
John Wolford
RB
Malcom Brown
Cam Akers*
Darrell Henderson
WR
Cooper Kupp
Van Jefferson*
WR
Robert Woods
Nsimba Webster
WR
Josh Reynolds
Easop Winston*
Trishton Jackson*
TE
Tyler Higbee
Gerald Everett
Brycen Hopkins*
LT
Andrew Whitworth
Bobby Evans
Tremayne Anchrum
LG
Joe Notebloom
David Edwards
C
Austin Blythe
Brian Allen
RG
Austin Corbett
Coleman Shelton
RT
Rob Havenstein
Jamil Demby
The first thing that I envision changing for this Rams offensive is to break out of our traditional 11 personnel into more 11 or 22 based packages. Sean McVay has made no secret about our change to a running back by committee team, which makes sense given the different types of backs we have on the roster. Malcom Brown probably gets the start due to his veteran presence, and because he's a traditional runner of the football. But Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson are both Alvin Kamara-like backs and can open things up for McVay to get more creative. An interesting camp battle will be to see who makes it at wide receiver. Kupp, Woods, Reynolds, Jefferson, and Webster are all locks to make the team, but we will probably carry 6-7 on the roster. I'm partial to Easop Winston and Trishton Jackson to fill those voids but other guys like JJ Koski could also impress and camp and make an impact. As the season goes on, the Rams are going to hope that at least one of these rookies can manage to impress enough to replace Josh Reynolds, as both him and Cooper Kupp are in contract years and we probably won't be able to afford to resign both. On the offensive line front, I'm really excited to see the development that Bobby Evans, Joe Notebloom, and David Edwards show. Make no mistake, if our team is to have flexibility moving forward it is absolutely vital that one, if not all three, of these guys pan out. Luckily, due to injury Bobby Evans and David Edwards were given starting jobs and performed really well all things considered. Evans in particular was given the task to block Jadeveon Clowney and Khalil Mack and really held those guys to minimal impact. As a quick update, the only member of the team to opt out of the 2020 season is OL Chandler Brewer, who was probably a good bet to make the team as a backup OL. In his place I slot Jamil Demby who's been a prospect on the team for what seems like a decade. In any other year, I'd slot a rookie to take over that slot but given the lack of a structured offseason I think the team stays with someone familiar for another year. Defense (* indicates rookie)
Position
1st
2nd
3rd
DE
Leonard Floyd
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo
DT
Aaron Donald
Sebastian Joseph-Day
Greg Gaines
DT
Michael Brockers
A'shawn Robinson
DE
Samson Ebukam
Justin Lawler
LB
Micah Kiser
Kenny Young
Travin Howard
LB
Terrell Lewis
Clay Johnston*
CB
Jalen Ramsey
Darious Williams
CB
Troy Hill
Donte Deayon
CB
David Long Jr
Adonis Alexander
S
John Johnson III
Jordan Fuller*
S
Taylor Rapp
Terrell Burgess*
Our biggest change in identity is going to come from the defensive side of the ball. Losing Wade Phillips is a huge blow to the leadership of the team, but newcomer Brandon Staley may be able to provide a McVay-like spark in ingenuity that provides results. The way that the Rams targeted safeties in the draft, and avoided a massive need in linebacker, makes me believe that we are transitioning to a DB let system similar our neighbors in the LA Chargers. If you do film study on the Chargers, you can see them run a package that consists of 7 DBs occasionally, which works well when you have physical safeties like Derwin James. Luckily for us, we have two incredibly physical guys in Johnson and Rapp, and with the team clearly focusing on DBs I think its in the cards for us to roll this package out in 2020. One area that might be a struggle for us is going to be our defensive line, and generating pressure via the pass rush. Luckily again, we have the greatest defensive player in the NFL and the greatest defensive tackle of all time on our team. Another fortunate circumstance is that we no longer will be marred by Wade Phillips conservative play calling, and in fact may be able to use DC Brandon Staley's expertise as an OLB coach to get improvement out of guys like Okoronkwo and Ebukam, In free agency we signed A'Shawn Robinson, who paired with Michael Brockers can be a force against the run, but neither player is a threat to rush the passer. Leonard Floyd, another free agent signing, is another guy who is strong against the run but struggles in pass rush. This area of defense will be key to the success of the team, and these guys are gonna have to find ways outside of relying on Aaron Donald to generate pressure. Special Teams (* indicates rookie)
Position
1st
K
Sam Sloman*
P
Johnny Hekker
LS
Jake McQuaide
PR
Trishton Jackson*
PR
Nsimba Webster*
Losing Greg Zuerline is going to hurt, and he will always have a place in Rams history for making clutch kicks in the 2018 NFC Championship game. But he grew inconsistent especially inside the 40 yard line, and struggled with injuries since 2017. We drafted Sam Sloman in 2020 but also have two decent UDFA that will compete for the starting job..
Projected Game Results
Week 1: Win (1-0) Dallas Cowboys @ Rams - NBC Sunday Night Football Opening the season at the new SoFi stadium, with potentially no fans is going to be an odd experience. The last time the Rams beat dem boyz was in the 2018 Divisional round of the playoffs. Both teams will struggle early to find continuity, and I'd expect a relatively low scoring, run heavy game. In the end I think the Rams will get the season off to a good start with a win. Rams 24 Cowboys 17 Week 2: Win (2-0) Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles - FOX 10am PST We should finally get to see Goff vs Wentz healthy in full game for the first time. The Eagles have beat the Rams both times they've played Sean McVay, and I think they get things back on track in 2020. I believe our strength at the DL and DBs will be able to effectively manage the weaknesses of the Eagles WRs and aging OL, though the key will probably be Zach Ertz. Rams 30 Eagles 28 Week 3: Loss (2-1) Rams @ Buffalo Bills - FOX 10am PST Our first stumble will come against an underrated team in the Bills. I think having two close games in a row to open the season will leave the team waiting for a crash, and how else to crash than by facing what might be the best defense in the NFL. I expect Tre White and the rest of the secondary to handle Goff and company in a convincing loss. Bills 23 Rams 10 Week 4: Win (3-1) New York Giants @ Rams - FOX 1:05PST Home sweet home, the Rams get back on track with a convincing win over a struggling Giants team. I'll predict an offensive explosion from Goff, somewhere around 400 yds and 4 TDs in a blow out win. Sorry Giants fans, nothing personal. I'm expecting an early struggle for this Giants team as it adjusts to new coach, young QB, with little prep time.Rams 42 Giants 16 Week 5: Win (4-1) Rams @ Washington [REDACTED] - FOX 10amPST I think this gsme is much closer than most might expect. The [REDACTED] are my surprise pick of the year, I have them winning the NFC East. An already tenacious defense led by Ron Rivera and gaining a bona-fide star in Chase Young is going to be fun to watch. I think the key to this game will be quick passes to avoid that ferocious defensive line as much as possible. Rams 24 [REDACTED] 21 Week 6: Loss (4-2) Rams @ San Fransisco 49ers - NBC Sunday Night Football As much as I want to win this game, I think Shanny and those fucks take this one from us. Divisional games tend to be unpredictable and chaotic, and while I do think we split the series with them, being on the road for this one isn't going to favor us. Its going to be interesting to see how DC Brandon Staley chooses to defend Kittle. I dont think shadowing him with Ramsey is the best play, perhaps it's a combination of jamming him at the LOS and covering him in zone. Either way, its a tall order for whoever gets that assignment. 49ers 31 Rams 25 Week 7: Win (5-2) Chicago Bears @ Rams - ESPN Monday Night Football As it stands, McVay will be 1-1 on the year in prime time games. His record as a coach is , which leads me to believe he'll have an edge in winning this one. Of course the Ram fucker Foles might be in at QB, which could spell disaster for our team. I think that our offensive prowess will shine during this long week, and we win in convincing fashion. Rams 36 Bears 20 Week 8: Win (6-2) Rams @ Miami Dolphins - FOX 10am PST We continue this offensive success against a team that will probably be pretty good defensively. HC Tom Flores is a Bill Belichek disciple who learned something important from his former mentor; acquire as many great DBs as you can. The improved secondary will make things tough for Goff and gang, but ultimately working with a rookie QB is going to be hard against a defense with all pros scattered around it. Rams 17 Dolphins 0 ' Week 9: BYE Week 10: Win (7-2) Seattle Seahawks @ Rams - FOX 1:25PST And entering the second half of the season we have our first three game winning streak. Coming off a bye week will give McBae ample time to prepare for a Seahawks team thay frankly will have a struggling offensive line and holes on its defense. Even with Jamal Adams, I expect this team to take a step back in 2020. Rams 31 Seahawks 17 Week 11: Loss (7-3) Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers - ESPN Monday Night Football Facing the best offensive weapons in the league is going to be a tough order for any team this season. Now that they have a QB that will make effective, eccifient decisions this Bucs team should take off. I dont think its particularly close, this is a complete team on both sides of the ball. Bucs 28 Rams 10 Week 12: Win (8-3) San Fransisco 49ers @ Rams - FOX 1:05PST The winning continues as the team really clicks into high gear. A brutal NFC West game will likely be a repeat of Week 6, but with a few more bounces going our way. Being at home will be a helpful factor. Rams 26 49ers 24 Week 13: Win (9-3) Rams @ Arizona Cardinals - FOX 1:05PST If there is any team in the league that McVay can be relied on to spank, its the Cardinals. McVay has yet to be beat by the team in his tenure with the Rams and I expect that to continue at least through this week. Despite a huge game from future MVP Kyler Murray, the Rams prevail, improving to 9-3 Week 14: Loss (9-4) New England Patriots @ Rams - FOX/NFLN/Amazon Thursday Night Football A short week against Belichek spells doom for almost every team, and McVay will continue his struggles against the GOAT. The Pats defense was able to throw Goff off his game on the Super Bowl a few years ago, I expect we see more of this on Thursday. Week 15: Loss (9-5) New York Jets @ Rams - TBD Every team had one puzzling loss, and this matchup with the Jets is ours for the year. I dont expect the Jets to have a grest year but I do think Sam Darnold is universally underappreciated and will have a great game against us. Week 16: Loss (9-6) Rams @ Seattle Seahawks - CBS 1:05PST And we are really ending the year on a slump. Losing to the Seahawks this late in the year isn't great for our playoff hopes, but its always a tall order to go into Seattle and leave with a W. This game may he one of the most important games going into the playoffs and I wont be surprised to see it get flexed. Week 17: Win (10-6) Arizona Cardinals @ Rams - FOX 1:25PST Luckily for us we end the season against our little cousins, and use this opportunity to get our chakras realigned. This game will move us into the 6th seed and bounce Arizona into the 7th seed, becoming the first division in history to have every team make the playoffs.
Conclusion
I think people have forgotten that the Rams were a mkssed field goal away from making the playoffs last year, and thats with playing very sloppy through most games. The only thing holding this team back is the fact that they play in the toughest division in football. I think that Goff has a bounce back year and ends up a top 10 QB for the season. This season will be critical for McVay to really show the new coaches and players that he's capable of not only calling proficient offense but leading an entire team of players. It will be an interesting season, so make sure to wear your damn mask so it actually happens. Thank you for reading, and bless all the knees and keep them healthy!! Thanks for reading!! Bless all the knees and keep them healthy. Link to hub
Will the Tennessee Titans win OVER/UNDER 8.5 games? By University Stats Prof!
1. Introduction
Tennessee’s season completely turned around once they benched quarterback Marcus Mariota in favor of Ryan Tannehill. After a 2-4 start, the Titans won seven of their final 10 games to sneak into the playoffs as the 6th seed in the AFC. Fun fact: it was the fourth straight season that the Titans finished with a 9-7 record! In the playoffs, they knocked off the defending Super Bowl champions New England Patriots, as well as the top seed in the conference, the Baltimore Ravens. Derrick Henry ran like a mad man in those games, becoming the first player in NFL history to rack up at least 175 rushing yards in two games in the same postseason. In the AFC Conference Championship Game, Tennessee grabbed a 17-7 lead in the second quarter, but couldn’t hold off the Chiefs any longer in a 35-to-24 defeat.
2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs) Ryan Tannehill was clearly one of the best Cinderella stories in 2019. After taking over as the starting QB over Marcus Mariota, he led the league in QB rating. He crushed his previous career-high in completion percentage with as astounding 70.3%; his personal best was 66.4% in 2014. During his first six years in Miami, he posted a 123:75 TD:INT mark. That equates to a 1.64 ratio. In 2019, he threw 22 TD passes versus 6 interceptions, which amounts to a 3.7 ratio. As you can see, once again he obliterated his past numbers. The team thinks he can keep playing at that level after handing him a hefty contract. I do believe he’ll do a good job in 2020, but not at the 2019 levels, obviously. As of now, the backup QB is Logan Woodside since Mariota signed with the Raiders. Woodside was drafted in the 7th round of the 2018 draft out of Toledo. During preseason games, he completed 46-of-76 passes (a 60.5% completion rate) for 539 yards with 4 TDs and no interception. It’s hard to tell what he can bring to the table. 2.2 Running Backs (RBs) Derrick Henry was a true beast last year. He won the rushing title with 1,540 rushing yards and 16 TDs on the ground (he added two more as a receiver). His 5.1 yards-per-carry average is mind-boggling considering the high volume. He didn’t slow down in the playoffs. After rushing for 182 yards in New England, he single-handedly destroyed the Ravens with 195 rushing yards. He was quieter in K.C. by accumulating 69 yards on the ground. Few people remember how he finished the previous year on a high note as well. In the final four meetings of the 2018 season, he averaged 146 rushing yards and 1.75 rushing TDs per contest. Obviously, he followed up with a season to remember. Henry’s numbers have steadily increased every single year since he joined the league in 2016. Now 26 years old, defensive coordinators must be getting up at night to game plan against him. Dion Lewis was a nice change-of-pace back, even though he didn’t have a great year. At least he had NFL experience, which is not the case of the remaining potential backup backs. Both Dalyn Dawkins and David Fluellen are undrafted guys who have combined for 19 rushing attempts in the league. Tennessee filled a need by drafting Darrynton Evans in last April’s draft. The third-rounder complements Henry’s skillset well, as Evans can spell him on passing third-down situations (a role that used to be played by Dion Lewis). Also, he isn’t great running inside the tackles due to his small size, but he is more of a change-of-pace runner who has home-run hitting capacities. 2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs) Rookie A.J. Brown was hyped as a big-play guy, and he did not disappoint. He didn’t catch that many balls, but when he did he made the most of it. The Mississippi product led all receivers that caught at least 50 passes with a jaw-dropping 20.2 yards-per-catch average. He scored 8 TDs, while also topping the 1,000 receiving-yard mark (he had 1,051). Will former #5 overall pick Corey Davis live up to his draft status? It seems unlikely after watching his first three years as a pro. He raised hopes by posting a 65-891-4 receiving line in 2018, but he regressed to 43-601-2 last year. Talent and youth play on his side, though. He may not be a true No. 1 wideout, but he can clearly do the job as a number two or three receiver. Adam Humphries is an efficient, yet not explosive player. He is good to pick up key first downs. He caught more than 70% of his targets in his final two years in Tampa, and he reached that goal once again in his first season in Tennessee. Was he worth a four-year deal worth $36 million? Probably not, but having him as your slot receiver is a bonus. His numbers were down last year, but he will be a useful tool as a 27-year old this year. Tajae Sharpe also made a nice contribution last year with 25 receptions, 329 yards and 4 TDs. He was a nice luxury to have on your roster, but he signed with the Vikings during the offseason. 2.4 Tight Ends (TEs) Jonnu Smith and Delanie Walker received the most playing time at tight end. Walker did a decent job, but father time seems to have caught up to him. After being very durable for 11 years, he stayed healthy for just one game in 2018 and seven games last year. Accordingly, the team cut ties with him as he was going to enter his age-36 campaign. Walker’s absence gave more room for Jonnu Smith to shine. The 2017 third-rounder has seen his numbers increase every year. His 35-439-3 receiving line is nothing to write home about. He could make a jump in 2020, but don’t expect huge steps. Anthony Firkser will be back with the squad. He doesn’t have the size and speed to become a great TE, but he does a fine job for a guy that was never drafted. MyCole Pruitt will be the #3 TE. He has never caught more than 10 passes in any of his five years in the NFL. Enough said. 2.5 Offensive Line (OL) Ben Jones has done a great job at the pivot throughout his entire eight-year career. He raised his game to a higher level last year by finishing at the second-best center in the NFL according to PFF grades. He’s been an awesome pickup when acquired from the Texas a few years ago. Right tackle Jack Conklin broke the bank in Cleveland, which left a glaring hole in Tennessee. He was a very solid player, and Dennis Kelly or Isaiah Wilson will try to fill his shoes. Kelly has received his two best PFF grades of his seven-year career in 2018 and 2019, which is a good sign. However, he doesn’t play at the same level as Conklin. The organization figures to have a better chance at replacing Conklin adequately with Isaiah Wilson, who was taken late in the first round of this year’s draft. This guy weighted close to 400 pounds coming out of high school! He is a mauler. The rookie needs work for both his footwork and technique, which led to uneven play in college. He has exceptional physical traits and high potential, but may not be great right from the start. At left tackle, Taylor Lewan is a cornerstone of this offensive line. He’s been good his whole career, never receiving a PFF mark below 76.4, which is remarkable! Rodger Saffold is the starting left guard for the Titans. He ranked as the sixth-best guard in the NFL last year; needless to say he’s been a valuable piece of the puzzle for this franchise. The weakest link is Nate Davis at right guard. The third-round rookie struggled big-time last year. 2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE The Titans did not make a single free agent acquisition on offense. They lost some depth with the departures of RB Dion Lewis and WR Tajae Sharpe. The team hopes 3rd round pick Darrynton Evans can spell Henry appropriately. The backup QB will also be weaker due to Mariota leaving for Vegas. And despite his advanced age, Delanie Walker was a decent TE, although he only appeared in seven games last year. The biggest loss occurred on the offensive line. Seeing Jack Conklin go to the Jets hurts the team. Rookie Isaiah Wilson will do his best to hold the fort, but he is unlikely to play at the same level as Conklin in his first year as a pro. Finally, how could we expect better production out of Ryan Tannehill in 2020 as opposed to his 2019 heroics? In conclusion, I am tagging the Titans offense with a moderate downgrade in comparison to 2019. Final call (2020 vs 2019): Moderate downgrade
3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown
3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs) Jurrell Casey is a strong run stuffer, while also averaging 5.7 sacks per year over a nine-year period. He was traded to Denver for cap reasons, which will hurt Tennessee’s interior of the line a lot. With Casey gone, the team will hand a much heavier workload to Jeffery Simmons. After missing the first seven games due to a knee injury, he showed fairly good promise as a #19 overall pick from the 2019 draft. His sophomore year will be critical. The team will also rely on DaQuan Jones to step up his game. He is an above-average DL, whose main strength is defending the run. He only has seven sacks in six years. The Titans lost some depth as Austin Johnson went to the Giants. 3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED) Harold Landry played twice as many snaps in his sophomore year as his rookie season, and he doubled his sack total (going from 4.5 to 9 to lead the team in that category). He graded as the 62nd-best edge defender in the league out of 107 players. He has the potential to take a leap. The team hopes to improve its pass rush by adding Vic Beasley, formerly of the Falcons. His numbers are a bit puzzling. He led the league with 15.5 sacks in his second season back in 2016. Since then, he has posted 5, 5 and 8 sacks. Those are not bad numbers, but they are clearly below expectations coming from a fellow that was the 8th overall selection in the 2015 draft. Also, he is a liability in run defense. In other words, he’s been more name than game recently. Kamalei Correa racked up five sacks despite playing 39% of the snaps. He had just 3.5 sacks over his first three years as a pro. He’s not a game breaker. Reggie Gilbert is a role player. The undrafted guy has 4.5 sacks in three years is no more than depth. 3.3 Linebackers (LBs) Jayon Brown and Rashaan Evans are the leaders of this group. Based on draft status, Evans is supposed to be the superior player, but that wasn’t the case at all last year. Evans received poor marks from PFF with a 47.6 grade; he obtained spot #74 out of 89 LBs. He struggled a lot in coverage and wasn’t that great rushing the passer. He does a fine job defending the run though. As for Brown, his 68.8 PFF grade allowed him to finish as the 20th-best linebacker in the league. His sack total went from 6 in 2018 down to just one a year ago. The former fifth-rounder will try to bring that number back up this season. Wesley Woodyard’s career is clearly on the decline. He lost his starting job, his PFF grades are falling, he’s 34 years old and he is now a free agent after the Titans failed to re-sign him. 3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs) Adoree’ Jackson is the team’s number 1 CB. He was the 18th overall pick from the 2017 draft. Even though he has only two career interceptions, he is still a fairly solid coverage guy. He constantly ranks among the upper tier. Logan Ryan played almost all defensive snaps last year and he filled the scoresheet more than ever in his seven-year career. He had career-highs in tackles (113), sacks (4.5) and forced fumbles (4). He also picked off four passes, his second-best performance. Yet, he graded as an average corner by taking the 62nd rank out of 112 CBs because of ordinary run defense and coverage skills. The Titans couldn’t meet his salary demands, so he left via free agency. Malcolm Butler finished once again in the middle of the pack among all NFL cornerbacks last year. The Super Bowl XLIX hero has seen his PFF grades decrease in each of the past three seasons, but he still manages to intercept 2-4 passes every year. He missed seven games last year with a broken wrist. LeShaun Sims played 30% of the snaps, while producing poor play on the field. He’s never been a good corner, but he still found a new home in Cincinnati when the Bengals signed him in March. The Titans took Kristian Fulton late in the 2nd round this year. Many reports suggest he’ll be an average NFL starter. He is best in man coverage due to his physicality. He lost the entire 2017 season when he was caught trying to tamper with a PED test sample, where he submitted a friend’s urine. 3.5 Safeties (S) Kevin Byard is one of the league’s highest paid safety and he deserves it. He has 17 interceptions over the last three years. In those seasons, his PFF rankings were 4th, 3rd and 10th among close to 90 qualifiers. Byard turned out to be a huge bargain as a former third-round pick out of Middle Tennessee State. Now 27 years old, there is no reason to believe his play will deteriorate in 2020. Kenny Vaccaro is well known among fans, even though his play is not great. He probably gets recognition due to his former first-round status, but his best PFF grade was 66.7 back in 2013. Just to give you an idea, such a mark would have yielded him the #48 spot out of 87 safeties last year. And that was his best season. Amani Hooker played 30% of the snaps last year as a rookie. The Titans had actually traded up to secure his rights during the 2019 draft. He did a decent job, but the jury is still out about the fourth-rounder’s future. 2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE The Titans allowed the 12th-fewest points in the league last year. Should be expect better or worse play in 2020? Jurrell Casey’s presence will be missed in a big way on the interior of the line. Also, not getting CB Logan Ryan back is hardly good news. Overall, he was an above-average corner who was constantly on the field and has been very durable in his career. The only good addition is Vic Beasley. I feel like he’s overrated since his sack numbers are lower than what most people think and due to poor run defense, but he still has valuable pass rushing abilities. Based on this information, I anticipate a small downgrade from this unit. Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small downgrade
4. Regular Season Wins
According to sportsbooks, the Titans are expected to win 8.5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”? Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:
Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
Count the proportion of seasons where the Titans won more or less than 8.5 games.
Here are the results:
Estimated Probability
Sportsbook
Odds
ROI
OVER 8.5 WINS
50.9%
FanDuel
-110
-2.8%
UNDER 8.5 WINS
49.1%
Pinnacle
+129
+12.4%
Tip: Bet UNDER 8.5 wins Return On Investment (ROI): +12.4% Rank: 22nd-highest ROI out of 32 teams Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): +104 Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Titans’ 16 regular season games:
HOME: -2 vs BUF, -3 vs CHI, -4 vs CLE, -6 vs DET, -4.5 vs HOU, -2.5 vs IND, -11 vs JAX, -2 vs PIT.
Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020. I hope you found this article informative, I've got every NFL team covered so check out my other posts! Have a nice day! Professor MJ
The NFL schedule finally came out and it is time to discuss it. To be honest, this kind of came at me as a bit of surprise until a few days before it happened, just because of how COVID-19 threw the timeline off, but it is here now. We don’t know for sure how everything will look like – if we even seen all 16 games, if some of them may be postponed or whatever, but I tried to look at the schedule as it is set right now and point out my favorite matchups to watch. I look at certain coaching staffs facing each other, rematches from last season, historic significance to some degree and of course individual players going up against each other. There are so many great quarterback matchups this year and I don’t want to hear any of that bullcrap about how quarterbacks don’t play versus each other, but rather against the respective defenses – you see them go back and forth trying to put points on the board and their play simply is the biggest factor in the outcome of the game. I tried to pick ten out of 256 total games that stick out to me the most and I already have circled on my calendar, plus I have quite a few honorable mentions before I get into the actual list.
Honorable mentions:
Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints (Week 3 – SNF 8:20) Why I considered it: Pretty obvious one here. You have Aaron Rodgers versus Drew Brees, who have battled for league MVP in multiple years, and these are two teams that both went 13-3 last season. This year, even though both teams have tight competition to defend their division crown, the result of this matchup could have influence on the playoff seeding ultimately, also in terms of tie-breakers. Why I left it off: First of all, I would have liked this game to be a little later in the year – which is a theme throughout the schedule. More importantly, this is a matchup I remembered as a more glorious one. We actually haven’t seen them go up against each other since 2014 and that was a 21-point victory for the Saints. Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers (Week 9 – TNF 8:20) Why I considered it: The Packers are seeking revenge after they were blown out by a combined score of 74-28 in their two matchups against the eventual NFC champs. Can the Packers run defense finally slow down that bludgeoning ground attack of the Niners? Can Aaron Rodgers make big plays versus this stingy defense? Why I left it off: We saw this story twice now – When San Francisco gets rolling and the Packers can’t match them physically, these games become very one-sided. Green Bay didn’t give Rodgers any help in terms of wide receivers this offseason and they didn’t add any beef to their D-line. I’m not looking for potential blowouts. Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins (Week 13 – 1:00) Why I considered it: These are two rebuilding teams and while the Dolphins are certainly ahead in that process, at that point of the season both of them will want to ensure they aren’t picking in the top five again. More importantly however, this could be the rematch between Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa, which we saw last season in a 46-41 shootout between LSU and Alabama. Why I left it off: First and foremost, both these teams could be pretty bad once again, as Vegas has their OveUnder at 5.5 and 6 respectively – two of the five worst marks. In addition, we don’t even know for sure if Tua will be playing at that point, as Miami may want to redshirt him a full year. Kansas City Chiefs @ New Orleans Saints (Week 15 – 4:25) Why I considered it: Unless they find a way to meet each other in the Super Bowl, this is basically the only time we will see Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees battle it out. Both these offenses should rank in top five at that point of the season and secure their spot in the seedings of either conference. It will be interesting to see how much interior pressure the Chiefs defense can put on Brees, while that retooled Saints secondary will try to stick with KC’s track team of pass-catchers. Why I left it off: Pretty simple. I think there are three better games the Chiefs will be part of than an interconference matchup without any tie-breaker implications, when you have another great game right after it on Sunday Night and week 16 & 17 filled with so many meaningful division clashes. It hurt not putting this game up there, but I just couldn’t quite fit it in. San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys (Week 15 – SNF 8:20) Why I considered it: This is just a classic playoff rivalry from the 80s and 90s renewed. While these teams were not on the same level last season, they have two of the most talented rosters in the entire league. Kyle Shanahan is the game’s premiere all-around offensive mind, while we have yet to see how Mike McCarthy has changed his approach in a year out of the league, after being labelled an uncreative play-caller. To me this may come down to how much Dallas’ defense can improve from 2019. Why I left it off: These teams can absolutely put points on the board, but the Niners had one of the elite defenses last season, while the Cowboys could not stop anybody when they needed and they lost Byron Jones and Robert Quinn. While Dak Prescott & company did put up big numbers in 2019, they also struggle to score in big spots and I can’t give them the benefit of the doubt at this point. Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Week 16 – 1:00) Why I considered it: I really don’t know why the schedule-makers didn’t have more confidence in this matchup to make this a 1 pm kickoff. You obviously have the two remaining quarterbacks from that 2004 draft class going up against each other, with Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger, but you also have what many consider the best offensive line going up against the best defensive line in football. Why I left it off: Do we really know Big Ben will be healthy in week 16? Are we sure Rivers can rebound from a horrendous 2019 campaign? I personally see them both as part of the playoff picture for now, but there are some question marks surrounding these teams and we aren’t guaranteed a matchup between two contenders. Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (Week 16 – 4:25) Why I considered it: These games just seem to always decide the winner of the NFC East and last season we had everything line up to perfectly to determine who will make the playoffs and who won’t. Vegas has them both sitting at 9.5 wins and I believe it will be a tight race for the division crown, with both teams having reloaded. Why I left it off: As always, this should be an intriguing game with high stakes, but when was the last time one of these matchups was actually a quality watch? When I look at the history of this series in recent years, either one of the teams always seems to come out flat. In the seven matchups over the last three years plus, only two games have been decided by fewer than seven points. Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (Week 17 – 4:25) Why I considered it: This was one of the best series we saw in all of 2019. In week 10 we had overtime field goal drama in a 27-24 win for the Hawks and in week 17 they came a couple of inches short on a goal-line stop in Seattle to win the Niners the West and the conference’s number one seed. Russell Wilson against that defense is just a pleasure to watch. Why I left it off: I personally just don’t believe this game will decide the winner of the NFC West. I feel like I underrate the Seahawks every single year and am amazed at the rabbits Russ pulls out of his hat to will this team to double-digit wins, but unless Jadeveon Clowney comes back, I just don’t believe in their defense and their O-line only got worse. I’m much more interested in the up-start Cardinals.
The top ten:
10. Week 16 (MNF) – Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Week 16, Monday Night football with everybody watching, you have a team that hasn’t been in that primetime slot much over the last 20 years going to an organization that has dominated not only them, but pretty much the entire league during that stretch. Since 2001, when the Patriots won their first Super Bowl, they have lost to Buffalo just four of the 34 times they have met, while in the two most recent ones Tom Brady was suspended and played only one half in a meaningless game respectively. Even without Brady, the Patriots are slight favorites to win the division as for right now according to Vegas odds, with Bill Belichick and “Stid the Kid”. I have plenty of questions about this New England team, but they should still be around the .500-mark at the very least and Buffalo is fighting some demons. A lot of this will be about how Josh Allen can mature in year three, because he has shown stretches of brilliance, but he also tossed three picks in their first matchup versus New England last year before he got knocked out and he made some stupid decisions late in the second half of their Wildcard game in Houston. GM Brandon Beane has surrounded the young signal-caller with more weapons via the Stefon Diggs trade and in the draft, after his receivers were plastered last season by those Patriots DBs. On the other side you have a first-year starter going up one of the most well-coached defenses in the league under Sean McDermott, which gave them some trouble already and has now retooled as well. Can the Bills snatch the crown off the head of Belichick and possibly mark the end of that dynasty he has sustained over the last two decades at Gilette Stadium?
The NFC West might be the most intriguing division in football. You have the reigning champs in the 49ers who have that mantra of a Super Bowl hangover looming over them, the Seahawks being a couple of inches away from winning the West and looking to take that next step, the Rams trying to recapture what catapulted them to an NFC title just a couple of years ago and the Cardinals entering year two with Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray, looking to revolutionize the league. This was an interesting series last season, as the Seahawks stomped them 27-10 in week four in Arizona, but then the Cardinals came back in week 16 and gave their high-flying divisional foes a reality check in form of a 27-13 upset. You have Russell Wilson versus Kyler Murray, who are often compared to each other and I believe could both be part of the MVP race. They will be going up against somewhat questionable defenses, ranking bottom ten in both yards and points allowed respectively. The Cardinals I thought really improved on that side of the ball, with number eight overall Isaiah Simmons as an incredible chess piece and a lot of beef on the D-line day three, after struggling to stop the run last season. They Seahawks did go defense-heavy in the draft, but they also likely lost their second-best player in Jadeveon Clowney. With DeAndre Hopkins added to the mix, the Cards could give that secondary a lot of trouble, while I could see Simmons spy on Russ quite a bit to take away those scramble plays with his ridiculous closing speed. You obviously still have the 49ers as reigning division champs, but this could kind of be a passing of the torch for that second team competing for the West.
First of all, this is a Friday night special on Christmas Day – so I already love an extra day of football. There have only been ten games on a Friday since the league merger in 1970, so that is something unique and it kicks off an awesome NFL weekend. Even better – this is actually great matchup. The Saints are seeking revenge after two ugly playoff exits on the hands on the Vikings. They did win their regular season meeting in 2018, but we all remember the “Minneapolis Miracle” and the Kyle Rudolph push-off controversy in overtime of their most recent Wildcard meeting. In that game you saw Mike Zimmer put Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen over the Saints guards and make Drew Brees uncomfortable with that interior pressure, while you could argue that Taysom Hill was the best player on the field that day. Well, Griffen is still a free agent and it looks like the Vikes are counting on some young D-linemen to recreate his production. Hill on the other hand just signed maybe the biggest contract ever for a QB3 on the depth chart, but that probably also means Sean Payton could utilize his skill-set even more in 2020. I’m also looking forward to seeing how the offensive mastermind and Drew will try to slice up that inexperienced secondary with basically three new starters at the corner spots, with Mike Hughes really being the only one with any experience to speak of (45.7 percent of the snaps in 2020). Another thing I’ll be looking at are Minnesota’s personnel groupings. The Vikings used 12 or 21 personnel on 53 percent of the offensive snaps last season (second-most in the entire league) and the teams that gave New Orleans trouble last season, were the ones that could run those sets.
7. Week 10 (4:25) – San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints
Man, that might have been the best matchup all of last season. The 49ers went into the Superdome tied with the home team at 10-2 and the game delivered what it promised. While San Francisco’s defense had been wreaking havoc for pretty much the entire year, this duel was about two offensive masterminds in Kyle Shanahan and Sean Payton trying to best each other with creative designs and trick plays, but also some great individual performances, highlight by George Kittle literally dragging three defenders to set up the game-winning field goal. We got to see reverses, wide receiver passes and even fullbacks playing option QB. What stood out to me about the Niners offense in last year’s matchup was how often Shanahan found ways to open up the middle of the field for Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel, while routinely created favorable matchups for Michael Thomas, working against Ahkello Witherspoon & company. Jimmy G also had his best game of the season and he will have to defeat some demons this year after not being able to come through at the end of the Super Bowl. Coming off a devastating loss in the Super Bowl, the Niners seem hungry to get back there, as they have basically replaced all the players they lost this offseason. The Saints have a bitter taste in their mouths themselves, after exiting in the first round of the playoffs on the hands of the Vikings. Many people thought these were the top two teams in the NFC last season and it looked like they might be on pace to meet in the conference championship. This will be a huge test for both of them and a potential preview of this year’s playoffs. For the Niners it is nice to head into their bye week right after that.
6. Week 12 (4:25) – Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
While the Patriots-Chiefs matchups these last two seasons to me were more about Bill Belichick playing chess against Patrick Mahomes, you can’t deny that Brady-Mahomes is a very intriguing storyline and we are lucky that the year Brady finally leaves New England, we still get this battle of all-time legend and young phenom. Brady & New England came away with the victory in their two showdowns in 2018, including an epic AFC Championship, but last year it was the Chiefs trying to avoid the comeback. Brady went 19-36 for under 200 yards and one TD compared to one pick against KC’s defense. Obviously the Bucs are a completely different team however. While the Patriots were devoid of talent at the wide receiver position last season, Brady now has what may be the premiere duo with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, to go with a talented group of tight-ends, which now includes his old buddy Rob Gronkowski. While the Tampa Bay defense wasn’t even comparable to New England’s last season, as they ranked 29th compared to first respectively, I think this may be an underrated unit. They pretty clearly finished number one versus the run and they bring back everybody from last season now at full strength in their second year under DC Todd Bowles. While Tyrann Mathieu looks to be a thorn in the sight of Brady, the Bucs might found their version of that player in the second round of the draft in Antoine Winfield Jr., to surprise Mahomes & company. I think Bowles could use him in a multitude of ways, similar to what he had in Jamal Adams with the Jets. I also love the matchup of two of the most aggressive play-callers on offense going up against two creative defensive coordinators trying to give them different looks to decipher.
This AFC North clash has been one of the great rivalries in the league over the last decade plus, It doesn’t quite feel like these two teams are in the same tier right now with the Ravens earning the number one overall seed in the entire playoffs at 14-2, while the Steelers lost their final three games of the season to take away hope for that final Wildcard spot due to the worst quarterback play in the league. However, Ben Roethlisberger returns from injury and if he is back to his usual self, there is a lot to like about this team. Their defense is elite, with a ferocious pass rush, a dynamic young linebacker in Devin Bush and Defensive Player of the Year candidate Minkah Fitzpatrick really brought that secondary around when he came over from Miami. They will have to play at their best to slow down reigning MVP Lamar Jackson and that downhill rushing attack the Ravens present. Offensively the Steelers still have one of the better O-lines in the league, some interesting young backs and several talented receivers around Juju Smith-Schuster. They will be challenged by what I think is the premiere trio of cornerbacks and Baltimore has retooled that D-line with Calais Campbell and Derek Wolfe to keep first-round Patrick Queen from LSU clean to run around and make plays. Lamar did have his worst game of the season at Heinz Field, but the Ravens still pulled off the W in overtime thanks to nothing in the passing game from Mason Rudolph. Baltimore has added some quick-strike weapons around the reigning MVP, while Pittsburgh also goes from incapable backups to a Hall of Fame-level QB. The Ravens should certainly be considered the favorites, but the Steelers could make some noise this year. To get such a physical, scrappy brawl to finish up Thanksgiving is better than any sweet potato pie.
4. Week 9 (SNF) – New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
You could be looking at this matchup in week one already and it will be very interesting to see Tom Brady for the first time in that Bruce Arians offense, but I think their rematch in the middle of the season will make for an even better game. Both teams will have caught their rhythm at that point and we have a better idea of who they are. The Bucs already were the number one passing offense and ranked third in points scored, but thanks to Jameis Winston’s famous 30 interceptions, they only finished 7-9. While Brady won’t push the ball down the field quite the same way, the offense should be much more successful in situational football, as they lost just two games by more than one score (one thanks to a pick-six). Even outside the quarterback position, their offense improved. However, the Saints did reload themselves in terms of their defensive backfield and receiving crew. Obviously the quarterbacks will be the main attraction, but I also love seeing that elite Saints O-line trying to create holes against last year’s top-ranked run defense as well as reigning sack leader Shaqil Barrett & JPP rushing against their stud tackles. With all the moves both teams have made in free agency and the draft, I just see them as double-digit win squads, which will be right there in the mix for the NFC. Whoever manages to sweep the series or if they tie it up here, that will have huge stakes in the race for the South and who needs to go on the road in the playoffs. It will also be interesting to see how the surrounding games will influence this matchup. The Saints will be coming off a trip to Chicago and host San Francisco the following week. For the Bucs on the other hand this is right in-between more manageable trips to New York and Carolina.
I really believe these Broncos-Chiefs matchups will be some of the best on the entire schedule. Yes, I might be a little higher on Denver than most people coming into 2020, but when you look at this roster, they are going to surprise some people with how good they actually are. That group of skill-players is so damn talented now with wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler via the draft and they really upgraded the interior of the offensive line with free agent Graham Glasgow and LSU center Lloyd Cushenberry. The Broncos D gave Patrick Mahomes some trouble in 2018 and they could be even better this year. Yes, they lost Chris Harris and Derek Wolfe, but they also acquired Jurrell Casey, A.J. Bouye and some interesting rookies, while getting back Bradley Chubb from injury, who looked to be in line for a monster season. The Chiefs on the other hand kind of try to run it back, with 20 of last year’s 22 starters being brought back. Both these teams have so much firepower and it will all come down to how much Drew Lock can grow in his second year in the league. If he can take that next step like a Carson Wentz did in year two, look out for these Broncos. The Chiefs are the reigning Super Bowl champs for a reason, but I could see Denver seriously challenge them for the AFC West. This will be a huge clash to kick off December and the Broncos will look to make a statement to the league as they travel to Arrowhead and try to prove they are for real. And both squads will leave it all out there, as the Broncos go into their bye after the game and the Chiefs host the Jets and Panthers the two following weeks.
2. Week 6 (4:25) – Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Very seldom have we gotten the treat of Aaron Rodgers versus Tom Brady. We have actually only see them go up against each other twice in their careers, with Rodgers taking over in 2008 and missing their meeting two years later. The Packers got the best of the Patriots in Green Bay in 2014 and the home-team equaled evened the series in Foxborough. Now in the NFC, Brady is looking to win those battles against other great quarterbacks without Belichick coaching the defense. While one team has done everything to make things as comfortable as possible for the incoming legend, the other one just drafted the eventual replacement of their 36-year old star and didn’t select a single receiver in a historically great class. Brady definitely has the upper hand in terms of weapons around him and we could see Rodgers get upset in that game if his receivers outside of Davante Adams don’t show up. With a film junkie like Brady, Packers DC Mike Pettine will have to get away from of the tendencies he showed last season in certain down & distances and against certain personnel packages, to not see them get taken advantage of. The Bucs massive front on the other hand likely won’t allow Matt LaFleur to get his zone-rushing attack going, putting more pressure back on the quarterback. However, Tampa also has a very young secondary, that could receive a lesson from the uber-talented Rodgers. A lot of this will depend on if Green Bay’s Smith Brothers can influence Brady and if anybody outside of Kenny Clark emerges for them to push the pocket on the inside. The one advantage Green Bay will have is the fact they are coming off a bye at that point, while Tampa is in the middle of a three-out-of-four game road stretch.
Only a couple of weeks into the season, we get to see the AFC Championship that never was last year. Baltimore was riding high at a league-best 14-2 record, but suffered a disappointing loss to the Titans in the Divisional Round. Kansas City on the other hand needed to some help down the stretch to finish second behind the Ravens for the conference’s number two seed and went all the way to a Lombardi trophy. Once again this year, this could absolutely be a preview of the AFC title game, with both teams locked and loaded. You have the two most recent league MVPs battling it out. Patrick Mahomes stands at 2-0 versus Lamar Jackson. This time around the Chiefs travel to M&T Bank Stadium, where the Ravens have lost just once over these last one-and-a-half seasons with their dynamic young QB at the helm. Kansas City’s defense really turned it on late last season with timely stops and takeaways. That’s what cost Baltimore a chance at the AFC title, as they were stopped twice on fourth-and-one by Tennessee after being almost perfect in those spots over the course of the regular season and they turned the ball over three times in that matchup. I don’t think that was an appropriate representation of the Ravens offense and I didn’t think Lamar had a horrible game, as several of his passes were badly dropped. They have added some game-breakers around him in the draft, but KC’s first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire could be the X-factor as well, because he will give them more of a physical presence in the run game and help them convert in crucial situations. This matchup should give us an idea early on who the conference’s front-runner could be. Can Mahomes pull a rabbit out of his hat once again, even though the Ravens are all over him with those different pressure looks, or can Lamar put his stamp on that series?
Reimagining the playoffs. 32 teams. 7 rounds. And introducing...The Draft Kings Pepsi Co #1 Draft Pick Tournament
With the new CBA approaching, I found myself day dreaming about the PERFECT NFL PLAYOFFS. How could we extract even more fun and excitement out of an already gripping league? How could we extend the playoffs into TWO whole months of nail biting, every touchdown matters football? How could we include EVERY TEAM IN THE LEAGUE to whip up a maximum fervor from sea to shining sea?! Well in my fever dream, I found a way. Welcome to the future of football. First things first, lets talk about the big changes and highlights.
All 32 teams makes the playoffs.
3 preseason games
14 week regular season
7 rounds of playoff football
An additional holiday bye week, right before playoffs.
The bottom 8 teams compete for the #1 draft pick in The Draft Kings Pepsi Co #1 Draft Pick Tournament, held at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
Now how does all that work in practice? After several feverish hours scribbling on paper... After digitizing my feverish notes. I can show you... 32 Team 7 Round NFL Playoffs Awesome right? Now lets break it down week by week to really get a feel for how the season would shake out in this new format. For the sake of timing, I'll map it out as if the 2019 season was played this way. Regular Season Opening weekend remains unchanged, with the first game being played on Thursday, September 5th. The regular season is shortened to 14 games played over 15 weekends. The last game is played on Sunday December 15th. Every team gets 1 bye week. Every team's record will factor into their playoff seeding, but no one is eliminated from the playoffs in the regular season. League Bye Week In preparation for a long and arduous playoffs, we give the whole league the week off to rest up, and spend time with their families over the holidays. It's a merry time across the world, as each and every NFL fan still holds out hope that their team can win the super bowl. We watch the NBA and are truly happy one last time. We have achieved the dream of a second bye week. Round 1 - Opening Weekend It's Sunday December 29th and every team in the league is playing. 32 teams. 16 games. 16 winners and 16 losers. Teams play other teams in their conference based on their seeding. No one is eliminated today, but if you lose here, you have to win 6 straight games to reach the super bowl Round 2 - Making the cut The second round of playoffs is played over two days. Saturday January 4th and Sunday January 5th. The 16 winning teams from round 1 duke it out to enter the elite 8, with winners earning a bye in round 3. The 16 losing teams duke it out to stay alive. The winning 8 teams survive, while the losing 8 teams are eliminated from Super Bowl competition and relegated to fighting for their chance to play in the Draft Kings Pepsi Co #1 Draft Pick Tournament. Round 3 - Elimination Weekend The weekend of January 11th and 12th is the end of the road for 12 NFL teams. Lose now and you're done for the year. The elite 8 takes the weekend off with a well earned bye while the other 16 teams in Super Bowl competition duke it out. Winners advance, losers are done for the year. The 8 winless teams are out of the playoffs, but the fun is just beginning. The 8 teams play each other, with winners advancing to the The Draft Kings Pepsi Co #1 Draft Pick Tournament in Las Vegas. Because these teams are no longer in super bowl competition, we'll be spicing things up with lots of rewards and exciting twists from here on out! Round 4 - The real tournament begins Some say if you don't make it to Round 4, you didn't even make the playoffs. From here on out, things get real in a single elimination tournament as the elite 8, freshly rested off their bye, battles the 8 surviving teams. Played over two days on Saturday January 18th & Sunday January 19th. Winners advance. Losers are done for the year. The 4 teams headed to Las Vegas for the Draft Kings Pepsi Co #1 Draft Pick Tournament have the weekend off. They head to Vegas early where the NFL has arranged accommodations for all 4 teams to stay at the same hotel. NFL media is on hand to capture all the kooky hijinks. Round 5 - The competition thins / The Draft Kings Pepsi Co #1 Draft Pick Tournament The single elimination tournament continues on January 25th and 26th. The eight surviving teams square off. 4 advance. 4 are done for the year. Meanwhile The Draft Kings Pepsi Co #1 Draft Pick Tournament kicks off in Las Vegas. The four teams play in back to back games at the freshly christened Allegiant Stadium (it was magically completed ahead of schedule in this timeline). Fans from all 4 teams flood the arena for a unique experience where 1 ticket gets you 2 games, plus an exhilarating between game show featuring every washed up musician currently playing a residency in Las Vegas. This years show features Aerosmith, Rod Stewart and Mariah Carey fighting over a single microphone. The The Draft Kings Pepsi Co #1 Draft Pick Tournament also gives the NFL a unique opportunity to lean into sports betting in a controlled environment. Real time betting odds are integrated into the game as fans at the stadium and at home can gamble and cash in on every play. As an added incentive to players and a nod to fantasy football, individual player stats are rewarded in real time with cold hard cash. Players who score a touchdown even receive a briefcase full of cash in the end zone. Not surprisingly, ratings for the The Draft Kings Pepsi Co #1 Draft Pick Tournament handily surpass the actual playoffs. Round 6 - Championship Weekend It's Saturday February 1st and we start off the weekend in Las Vegas as the The Draft Kings Pepsi Co #1 Draft Pick Bowl kicks off. Joe Burrow is himself in attendance as the Cincinnati Bengals play The Miami Dolphins for the coveted #1 draft pick. At the coin toss the captain of each team hand delivers their teams requested #1 draft pick to Roger Goodell, who then flips the coin himself, a move that immediately sets off wild conspiracy theories on twitter. After the game, the winners pick is revealed and they immediately receive the player of their choice for the #1 draft pick. Joe Burrow runs onto the field and proudly puts on a Miami Dolphins cap, as he joins the team for a night of revelry and debauchery on the Las Vegas strip. On Sunday February 2nd, the 4 surviving teams in the actual NFL playoffs compete for 2 spots to the super bowl. Bye / Media / Pro Bowl Week It's Sunday February 9th and you're at home depot, because you've got a lot of shit to catch up on after 6 weeks of playoffs. Remember to grab flowers on your way home. The Super Bowl So there's only one improvement being made to the super bowl, and oh boy are you going to like it. We're moving the Super Bowl to Sunday February 16th on President's Day Weekend. America rejoices as we rightfully get the holiday we truly deserve, and an excuse to go even harder on the super bowl, and a national hangover day. You're welcome America. You're welcome. Edit: Updated to replace my fevered scrawlings with a real diagram!
Stop predicting the Saints Rams Patriots and Chiefs as the top 4 teams in 2019
The top two seeds in each conference rarely stay the same, and everyone in the preseason seems to forget that, and then they come around by like Week 6 of the regular season. Power rankings and fans like to predict the championship game teams are just gonna be the same 4 teams in the championship game next year, which is almost never the case. Here’s a Microsoft Paint illustration of playoff berths since realignment: https://m.imgur.com/a/R6tqW3I As you can see, the only times the top 2 seeds in a conference stayed the same was when Peyton Manning and Tom Brady were in the same conference (they did it 4 times in a row). People might argue Mahomes is the next coming of Jesus and will match Tom Brady in record and performance, and by all means I can agree with that, but it is definitely against the probability. Vegas Odds on the same 4 teams is definitely a scam, especially if you are a hopeful fan of one of the 4 teams. The AFC and NFC Championship games have seen 68 teams in 17 years. How many make it back to the CG the next year? Well to answer this question let’s go up the line... 39/64 CG teams make the playoffs the next year. That’s right, there’s a 40% chance the Chiefs Rams Saints or Patriots miss the playoffs altogether. Of course this won’t happen with the Patriots but just saying. This happened to both the Jaguars and Vikings in 2017 who missed the playoffs this year. 25/64 CG teams win their division the next year. A surprising amount of wild cards in here, which may result from a championship push in a previous year to barely in contention the next. The most recent example I can think of is the 2017 Eagles. 17/64 CG teams get a first round bye the next year. This is the one I’m trying to highlight. There’s about a 25% chance that any of the Saints, Rams, Chiefs, or Patriots get a 1/2 seed, or only 1 of the 4 teams will be a top seed again, which means the Patriots are just gonna keep their first round bye streak alive. 17/64 CG teams make the CG again the next year. I found it surprising that this was the exact same number as the first round bye, but it makes sense - averaged into 17 years, exactly 1 of the 4 teams will appear in the 2020 Championship Games, and it will probably still be the Patriots. 10/64 CG teams make the SB the next year. About a 15% chance that one of the top 4 2018 teams will be in next year’s SB. Power rankings and Instagram polls are so 2018-biased and make it seem like there’s a 50% chance the Rams make the SB, and the other 50% goes to the Saints. This is not true and will never be true as the NFL is a changing landscape every year and history cannot be ignored. 5/64 CG teams have won the SB the next year. The Steelers once in 05 and the other 3 were the Patriots soooo yeah. Keep in mind I’m not a Patriots fan I’m a Chiefs fan. I’m just being cautiously pessimistic and generally realistic. Power rankings may overrate these teams because their current team circumstances give no reason to doubt them, but statistics definitely give a reason to doubt. Have a good preseason folks.
The Green Bay Packers (-3.5) and Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) are favored in the 2021 NFL Conference Championship games. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills are in their path to Super Bowl LV. As a result, their AFC Championship odds did improve from +2325 to +1400, but they still have the worst odds in the conference [ January 4, 2021 ] The Chiefs enter the 2021 NFL playoffs as the odds-on favorites to win the AFC Championship, though their odds have worsened slightly each of the last two weeks with Baltimore and Buffalo looking like quality competition. NFL Conference Championship Betting Odds - Do Oddsmakers expect Mahomes to Play? SI Gambling Insider Frankie Taddeo reviews the opening lines for the conference championship round of the NFL Playoffs. NFL Conference Championship odds, with opening lines and insights from oddsmakers on why NFL lines are moving and where the sharp money is betting. Odds to win the 2020-21 NFC Conference according to BetOnline Sportsbook. Updated on April 22, 2020. Conference Futures Odds to Win the NFC Championship New Orleans Saints +600 San Francisco 49ers +600 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +600 Dallas Cowboys +1000 Philadelphia Eagles +1100 Seattle Seahawks +1100 Green Bay Packers +1200 Here are our over/under picks for both of Sunday's conference championship games, which will determine the Super Bowl LV matchup. NFL Conference Championship Betting Odds and Predictions; NFL Conference Championship Betting Odds and Predictions. By Ryan Knuppel; in NFL — January 17, 2019; Shutterstock.com / PHOTOCREO Michal Bednarek Alright folks, here we are. Just three days away from playing the two games that will ultimately decide who plays in the Super Bowl! NFC: #2 Rams @ #1 Saints (NO -3.5) (O/U: 57) This will Examples seen on the NFL Vegas Odds pages could include -08, -12, If you wager $100 on Green Bay to win the NFC and they capture the championship, then you would win $800 (8 ÷ 1 x 100). Your online betting account would then credit your account $900, which includes your win and stake ($100). The American Format would see Green Bay listed at +800 and for the Decimal Format, the Packers
Early Action: NFL Conference Championship Odds & Bets ...
Patrick Everson brings you the NFL Conference Championship odds, with opening lines and insights from oddsmakers on why NFL lines are moving and where the sh... NFL Conference Championship Odds, Picks and Predictions: NFL Conference Championships kick off on Sunday, January 24th, as the field of competition begins to... Check our expert’s predictions and best odds for the 2021 NFL Conference Championships. Gift card giveaway coming on the next show. Subscribe, and stay tuned... Get our free mobile app: https://myaction.app/youtubeMore news here: https://www.actionnetwork.com/The Action Network Facebook: http://facebook.com/actionne... NFL Expert Picks Conference Championship 2021 Best Bets, Spreads, Vegas OddsHypeCheck Social MediaTwitter https://twitter.com/HypeCheckTwitter https://... NFL Conference Championship Round Vegas Spread Picks + Bonus Picks (Betting Advice) In this video I talk about the NFL Conference Championship Round. I give ...
