How Many Numbers Should You Bet In Roulette ...

can i bet on all numbers in roulette

can i bet on all numbers in roulette - win

Old fart advice for young investors

There seems to be a lot of interest in stocks from young investors. I imagine that many will make their way from WSB to this sub because WSB is a bunch of monkeys flinging poo. You may have lost some money and now you want to explore stocks from less of a Meme and emotional perspective.
There is nothing wrong with Meme stocks. Meme stocks can be fun. I have had fun with it. I am also a 42-year-old man with rental properties, commercial properties, and a few small businesses. BB, NOK, AMC, and even GME are all fine. The DD is fine behind all of them. The issue is that if I lose $1,000 then I can write myself a check from one of my businesses for $10,000 to make myself feel better. That is not a brag...it is simply sharing that people come from different places in life.
You are just starting off life and probably have far fewer resources and every dollar matters more.
I challenge anyone to CMV but I am not a big proponent of stocks as a core investment strategy. Here are my reasons why.
  1. Information has a time-decay of value. Meaning that information becomes less valuable over time. Data is what is mined to often produce new Information. You are at a disadvantage when it comes to both data and information. The information that you get on a retail level has already lost much of its value. This is where the saying "if you read it in the news you are already too late"
  2. You have no power. You simply cannot compete with whales and whales don't become whales by letting people glean the crumbs that are leftover. They have the power to move markets, you don't.
  3. You have no control over outcomes. You have no control over the success of a company. You have no control over other investors. You have no control over anything.
  4. The odds on options are not that great. Even compared to blackjack our betting the outside of a roulette table they are just not that good.
  5. Many people that are far more intelligent than you are, lose money at stock investing.
  6. Your emotions and FOMO will be a hindrance and problematic.
  7. Most stock investors are too young to understand the market cycles
I like stocks as a small part of an overall investment strategy for young people for the following reasons.
  1. Time is valuable and you have the most time
  2. Compound interest is the "force" behind all investing and compound interest compliments the stock market very well
  3. Certain strategies can complement long-term wealth building
Building wealth through stocks is like trying to build a house one brick at a time...just you, and you are gathering the straw, digging the mud, and pressing each brick by hand. When it rains many of your bricks will wash away. If the sun shines for enough days then you will make good progress.
The problem is that all markets cycle. The housing market cycles. Petroleum and natural gas cycles. The stock market cycles. I believe that a full market cycle is around 18 years with around 7-12 years in an up cycle and 6-11 in a down cycle. In the stock market, they call these bull and bear markets. We are currently in one of the longest bull markets on record due to interest rates and the feds printing money. No one has a crystal ball but sooner or later the market will peak. When this happens Boomers will be the first to pull money out and put it into bonds or CDs. Boomers are as big of a whale as retail can get. Anyone and I mean anyone could have made money in the current market. If ten years ago you had asked a five-year-old to pick five of their favorite things and invested in their choices you would have made money. That could be Barbies, YouTube, Pizza, Sprite, and their Dog. They would have made money on any stocks you picked around those five things.
There will come a day sooner or later when Boomers and GenX will see trends in the market that they don't like. Boomers own multiple houses and are deep into retirement. GenX is a small but powerful generation that is now on the back Nine Holes of life. Gen X will largely inherit the wealth of the Boomers. There will come a shift towards mitigating losses and that shift is not far away. When they move their money from markets so goes the market.
Is it fair to say that one of the longest bull cycles on record could transition to one of the longest bear cycles?
Let's look at Millenials...a generation that is struggling to just buy a home. Boomers own a few. GenX may own a couple and Millenials that are now entering into their forties struggle with one. Millenials are a massively sized generation that I believe is now bigger than both GenX and Boomers combined because Boomers are dying at a rapid pace. Millenials are the generation that were adults starting life and careers in 2008 and full-blown families with Covid-19. Maybe one of the unluckiest generations.
GenZ is this very talented and intelligent generation. Y'all are creating disruptions in culture, in politics, and in Wall Street. You are savvy and demanding. Giving billionaires the finger while pissing on the front door of their mansions.
But you need to be careful.
Stocks are not the key to your success. They are just a single tool in your toolbox. A better tool may be early homeownership or owning a small business. Life is about options...and I am not talking about the gambling options of Wall Street. I am talking about the options of having equity in a home to adapt to economic swings. I am, talking about the options of owning a small business where your day to day decisions make you smarter and more valuable. Where you own assets that make you money. Most importantly you have control over your own destiny.
I am not telling you not to invest in stocks. I am just telling you that it should be a limited part of your overall strategy in life. Unless someone has been through two complete cycles of the stock markets then I would take their advice with a grain of salt.
General advice:
  1. Don't sell stocks that you have taken a loss on
  2. Buy when everyone is selling and sell when everyone is buying
  3. Invest in stocks with a strategy based on your knowledge and experience
  4. Invest only what you can afford to lose
  5. Stocks work best with time. Leave them alone
  6. Be a value investor
  7. Invest with a purpose
Number seven is important. For example, I like Robotics, AI, and Automation. I like these is two specific areas....transportation and mining. I operate in the Transportation industry. I know that very soon human drivers will be eliminated and self-driving trucks will take over. Trucks will be loaded, driven, and unloaded without a single human being doing any of that work. With that will come an entire supporting industry. Tow trucks will need to be automatically dispatched when trucks break down or in accidents. AI will need to be involved in decision making. I will see these changes before I am dead and I am 42.
I like underwater mining. Our oceans are the next frontier and the next gold rush. We have areas of sea bottom that has very little life but is rich in gasses, minerals, and thermal energy. Automation, AI, and robotics will play a huge role in underwater mining. I will see this transition start in my lifetime and I am 42.
Beyond that, once we have machines that are capable of underwater mining then we have the basics for machines that can mine inner-system planetary objects. From nearby asteroids to the moon, to thermal energy collection closer to the sun, to Mars and beyond. The wealthiest person in existence will be the person that is able to start the first off-planet mining operation. Where there is no EPA, no taxes on land, where we are not building sub-divisions next to mines. Where we don't have to worry about the ecosystem. Where gasses and pollutants are not pollutants because there is nothing of consequence to pollute. The largest land-owners in existence will be the owner of off-world mining operations. That may not happen in my lifetime...but it may in yours.
I like investing in Meme stocks because they are fun. But I also invest in Robotics, AI, and automation with one-single question....is this company taking humanity one-step close to automated transportation or underwater mining? I invest with a purpose.
Sure I will grab up some value stocks every now and then. People are going to be flying more than ever in a few years. People are going to be more social than ever in a few years. Shoot Condom manufacturers are a buy right now because people will be..........you get the idea.
The whole reason that I wrote this excessively long post is to maybe get you into thinking about your strategy....what is it? And to caution you on being "all-in" on stocks.
Stonks don't always go up.
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THE TIMES (Full Article) - Jordan Peterson on his depression, drug dependency and Russian rehab hell

THE TIMES (Full Article) - Jordan Peterson on his depression, drug dependency and Russian rehab hell
INTERVIEW

Jordan Peterson on his depression, drug dependency and Russian rehab hell

The superstar psychologist, scourge of snowflakes, and his daughter, Mikhaila, explain how he unravelled — and their bizarre journey to find a cure


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📷 Jordan Peterson
SHALAN AND PAUL FOR THE SUNDAY TIMES MAGAZINE
Interview by Decca Aitkenhead
Saturday January 30 2021, 6.00pm GMT, The Sunday Times

I thought this was going to be a normal interview with Jordan Peterson. After speaking with him at length, and with his daughter for even longer, I no longer have any idea what it is. I don’t know if this is a story about drug dependency, or doctors, or Peterson family dynamics — or a parable about toxic masculinity. Whatever else it is, it’s very strange.
Peterson, a clinical psychologist, is a conservative superstar of the culture wars. Born and raised in Alberta by a librarian and a teacher, he spent the first three decades of his career in relative academic obscurity, churning out papers and maintaining a small clinical practice. All that changed in 2016 when he challenged, on free-speech grounds, a new Canadian law he argued would legally compel him to use transgender people’s preferred pronouns. Practically overnight the Toronto professor became a YouTube sensation, posting videos and lectures attacking identity politics and political correctness, and dispensing bracing advice about how to be a real man. His 2018 self-help bestseller, 12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos, has made him arguably the world’s most famous — and certainly its most controversial — public intellectual.
For three tumultuous years wherever Peterson went uproar and adoration followed. His explosive confrontation with Cathy Newman on Channel 4 News in 2018 resulted in the network calling in security experts after some of his supporters posted abuse and threats online. To the millions of young men who idolise him, the erudite, unflappable 58-year-old is a kind of fantasy father figure. Life is tough, he warns them; they need to stop whining, tidy their room, stand up straight and deal with it. He accuses the “neo-Marxist radical left” of trying to “feminise” men, and defends traditional masculine dominance. According to Peterson men represent “order”. To his critics he represents the respectable face of reactionary misogyny, and a dangerous gateway drug to online alt-right radicalisation.

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📷 Jordan Peterson and his daughter, Mikhaila - SHALAN & PAUL FOR THE SUNDAY TIMES MAGAZINE
If his rise to fame was dramatic, what has happened since he disappeared from public view 18 months ago sounds fantastical — in his daughter’s words it is “like a horror movie”. A movie in which her father gets hooked on benzodiazepines, becomes suicidal, is hospitalised for his own safety and then diagnosed with schizophrenia. Against his doctors’ advice she flies him to Russia to be placed in an induced coma. He emerges delirious, unable to walk, and ricochets from one rehab centre to another, ending up in a Serbian clinic where he contracts Covid-19. Back home in Canada at last, from where he speaks to me earlier this month, he breaks down in floods of tears and has to leave the room. When I ask if he feels angry with himself for taking benzodiazepines, his daughter jumps in, arms waving — “Hold on, hold on!” — and tries to bring the interview to a close.

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📷 Russian roulette: Jordan and Mikhaila in Moscow, where he tried an unorthodox form of drugs detox@MIKHAILAPETERSON / INSTAGRAM
If this was a movie, its director would unquestionably be the 28-year-old Mikhaila Peterson, CEO of her father’s company. She and her Russian husband appear to have assumed full charge of his affairs, so before I am allowed to speak to him I must first talk to her. Unrecognisable from the ordinary-looking brunette from photos just a few years ago, Mikhaila today is a glossy, pouting Barbie blonde, and talks with the zealous, spiky conviction of a President Trump press spokeswoman.
According to her website she has suffered from juvenile rheumatoid arthritis, an autoimmune disorder, since early childhood, which necessitated a hip and ankle replacement at 17. Other symptoms — chronic fatigue, depression, OCD, nose bleeds, restless legs, brain fog, itchy skin, the list goes on — forced her to drop out of university, “and it finally occurred to me that whatever was happening was likely going to end in my death, and rather soon. After almost 20 years, the medical community still had no answers for me.” So she decided to cure herself.
In 2015 Mikhaila began to experiment with food elimination. Starting with gluten, she removed one food group after another from her diet, until for the past three years she has eaten literally nothing but red meat — almost exclusively beef — and salt. This has, she claims, cured everything. She now makes podcasts and blogs about her “lion diet”.
Needless to say the medical profession does not endorse this diet. Nevertheless, in 2018 her father adopted it and within months declared it had cured his depression, anxiety, psoriasis, snoring, gingivitis, gastric reflux, even the floaters in his right eye. He stopped taking the SSRI antidepressants that he had been on for 14 years. He was, he proclaimed, “intellectually at my best”.

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📷 Delivering a lecture in Ljubljana, Slovenia, on his 12 Rules for Life book tour in 2018 REX
Like every medical autodidact I’ve ever met, Mikhaila rattles off pharmacological jargon at 100 miles an hour, sweeping from one outlandish tale to another with breathless melodrama that becomes increasingly exhausting to follow. She wants to give me the “nitty-gritty nasty details” of the past 18 months herself, “because Dad is still not fully recovered, and he’s still extremely prone to anxiety, so any recounting of the story knocks him out for a couple of days”. After 80 minutes on Zoom, the one thing of which I’m certain is that, were I as close to death as she assures me her father repeatedly was, this is not the person I would entrust with saving my life.
The problems all began, according to Mikhaila, in October 2016. By then she, her husband and her father were consuming only meat and greens — the full lion diet would come later — and ate a stew that contained apple cider, to which all three had a violent “sodium metabisulphite response. It was really awful — but it hit him hardest. He couldn’t stand up without blacking out. He had this impending sense of doom. He wasn’t sleeping.” Peterson himself has said he didn’t sleep for 25 days, a claim that has been widely disputed, given that the longest period of sleeplessness recorded is 11 days. Mikhaila brushes this away impatiently. “He was in really bad shape, right.”
Peterson had plenty of reasons to be unsettled. His book 12 Rules would be coming out a year later; his job at the University of Toronto was in jeopardy due to the transgender pronoun controversy. “So that was incredibly stressful,” Mikhaila agrees. “And then just going from not being known to being known was stressful. But our entire family agrees, the main problem here was this weird health thing.” They consulted doctors, “who didn’t really know what was going on”, until the family GP prescribed “a really low dose of benzodiazepine”, the family of sedative drugs that includes Valium. It seemed to help. “And we were, like, OK, whatever.”

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📷 Peterson’s wife, Tammy, was diagnosed with a rare form of kidney cancer in early 2019DANIEL HAMBURY / STELLA PICTURES
By early 2019 Peterson was a household name, his book a global bestseller, when disaster struck. His wife of 30 years, Tammy, was diagnosed with kidney cancer. “We did a whole bunch of research and it was this extremely rare cancer that is extremely deadly.” Tammy suffered all kinds of surgical complications, and Peterson spent months at her hospital bedside, terrified she would die. That summer his doctor raised his benzodiazepine dose, but instead of soothing him it seemed only to make matters worse. “Dad started to get super-weird. It manifested as extreme anxiety, and suicidality.”
On another psychiatrist’s advice he quit the drug and started taking ketamine, but cold turkey sent him into benzodiazepine withdrawal. Another psychiatrist, a family friend, told him to resume the benzodiazepine and check into a rehab clinic to help wean him back off it slowly. After six weeks in rehab in Connecticut he was in a worse state than ever, still on the benzodiazepine plus now additional drugs, unable to stop pacing or writhing with agitation. Frightened he would kill himself, Peterson transferred to a public hospital in Toronto in November, where he was diagnosed with schizophrenia.
The hospital wanted to treat him with electroconvulsive therapy, but Mikhaila and her family were having none of it. “It’s not like we’re uneducated in these things, right?” she says. “We kept telling them, no, the problem was his medication. But they wouldn’t listen to us. So we started calling rehab clinics around the world. We rang 57 of them. And this one place in Russia was, like, ‘Yeah, we do detox.’ So we thought, what do we do? It’s got to be dangerous because no one else will do it. But my family agreed, let’s give it a shot.”
The Toronto doctors “were not OK with it. We had to sign papers taking responsibility for whatever happened. And they were annoyed about it enough that they wouldn’t give us his discharge papers. Which is not even legal, right? It was a complete mess.”
In January last year, with the help of her husband, a nurse and a security guard, Mikhaila put Peterson on a private plane to Moscow. The clinic there was more familiar with detoxing patients from opiates than benzodiazepines; they took one look at Peterson and said he’d been deliberately poisoned. “And I was, like, no, it’s the meds!” To complicate matters further, the clinic intubated him for undiagnosed pneumonia. Did she feel her father was in safe hands? “Well, my husband was translating everything, which was terrifying. But the clinic looked really modern. It didn’t look sketchy.”
The medics administered propofol, the drug that killed Michael Jackson, to induce an eight-day coma, during which they “did something called plasmapheresis, which takes your blood and cleans it. Benzodiazepines have such a long half-life, there’s a theory that maybe some of the withdrawal is because you still have benzodiazepines in you. So the plasmapheresis got rid of everything.”
When Peterson regained consciousness, it became clear that they were not out of the woods yet. “He was catatonic. Really, really bad. And then he was delirious. He thought my husband was his old roommate. Oh, it was horrible.” Did she panic? “Yeah! I lost a whole bunch of hair. I’ve never been that stressed in my entire life. We’d brought Dad here and it was, like, what did the detox do? Was it too hard on his brain? I thought, I’m f***ed if this goes badly. The entire world is going to blame me, because who brings somebody to detox from these medications in Russia? It’s, like, this is really bad.”
Peterson was transferred to a public hospital near Moscow, “for people with severe head trauma, basically. It was like a Soviet-era hospital from a movie. But it was full of really — thank God — really, really, really, really skilled doctors. So I went the next day, and Dad was back!”
The doctors had put him on new drugs; he was alert. By now it was February and Peterson had no memory of anything since mid-December. He had even forgotten how to type. Over eight days he learnt to walk again, and was then transferred to another clinic to convalesce. In late February his family flew him to Florida, rented a house in Palm Beach, hired nurses and thought he would recover. But ten days later all the old symptoms came back. Unable to stop moving, in pain, Peterson was suicidal again. “And I was, like, what is going on?”
Mikhaila contacted a clinic in Serbia — “this, like, top-of-the-world private hospital” — and flew her father to Belgrade, where he was diagnosed with akathisia, a condition of restlessness classically linked to benzodiazepine withdrawal. Finally Mikhaila had found doctors who corroborated her own theory. They prescribed further sedatives and antidepressants and an opiate; her father seemed “stoned” but “at least started to relax”. Father and daughter released a podcast, updating fans on his recovery. And then Serbia went into lockdown, so she moved into her father’s clinic with her husband, their nanny and three-year-old daughter — and all five of them promptly contracted Covid.
By now my head is spinning. The blizzard of obscure pharmaceutical terminology keeps on coming, as Mikhaila reels off the names of more antibiotics and antidepressants and antipsychotics prescribed to her father, recounting her objections to this one and that one until it all becomes a blur.
The long and the short of it is that late last year Peterson flew home to Canada. His akathisia — the intense agitation and restlessness that makes him suicidal — has improved significantly but not disappeared. No one can understand why it still plagues him. He still isn’t free of meds. Having gone through several more doctors in Toronto, Mikhaila is currently corresponding online with “thousands” of akathisia sufferers, who are “telling me what worked for them”.

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📷 Christmas Day, 2020, in Toronto. Clockwise from left: Jordan, Mikhaila and husband Andrey, Julian (Jordan’s son) with son Elliott and wife Jillian, Tammy with granddaughter Scarlett ---- ELLIANA ALLON
Has she ever, I wonder, felt perceived by the medical profession as the problem? “Completely, yes. Hundred per cent. I’ve been problematic for a while.” She starts to laugh. “I’m pretty pushy when I think something is wrong.” She doesn’t have any actual medical training, though, I point out. Doesn’t she worry about the responsibility she has assumed for her father’s treatment? “But because of my experience of being ill, I’ve done a lot of research. There’s this trust people have of doctors that I don’t have. Because doctors are just people, right?”
This opinion is not uncommon in North America, where surprising numbers regard YouTube as a viable substitute for medical school. Whatever your opinion of Peterson, however, his scrupulous deference to scientific data is indisputable. His public image is defined by scholarly precision; “There’s no evidence for that,” is practically his catchphrase.
I am dying to ask him why he submitted to this medical circus, orchestrated by his daughter against his doctor’s orders, when we speak the following day. But at the end of this long and often bewildering account from his daughter, I still can’t tell if her father will be cogent or incoherent. I don’t know what to expect. And Mikhaila will, of course, be monitoring our conversation.
Peterson is as impeccably groomed, composed and meticulously courteous as ever when he appears on Zoom a day later. He looks gaunt and pale, though, and I’m struck by an overwhelming sense of his vulnerability.
As the professor is famously data-driven, I ask what medical evidence was so compelling that it persuaded him to detox in Moscow. He looks slightly blank. “I don’t remember anything. From December 16 of 2019 to February 5, 2020,” he says, “I don’t remember anything at all.” He reassures me that he did, nonetheless, consent to being treated in Moscow, so again I ask why.
“Well, I went to the best treatment clinic in North America. And all they did was make it worse. So we were out of options. The judgment of my family was that I was likely going to die in Toronto.” Why would he put his life in the hands of his family and not the medical profession? “I had put myself in the hands of the medical profession. And the consequence of that was that I was going to die,” he repeats blankly. “So it wasn’t that [the evidence from Moscow] was compelling. It was that we were out of other options.”
I’m curious about the extent to which his mental health was troubling him in the months and years leading up to the crisis. On his book tour he’d delivered a different lecture each night at 160 cities in 200 days, addressing crowds of many thousands. Feted as a psychological authority in possession of all the answers — busy dispensing advice to fans about their mental health — how worried was he about his own? “Well, I don’t think it’s a mental health issue. I think it’s a physical health issue. I have an autoimmune disorder of some sort, and much depression is autoimmune in nature.”
Now I’m confused all over again. Throughout all his medical ordeals there wasn’t ever a formal diagnosis of an autoimmune disorder, was there? “Yeah, there was,” Mikhaila jumps in. “In Russia and in Serbia. Fibromyalgia.” That isn’t an autoimmune condition, is it? “I mean,” Peterson says vaguely, “these sort of autoimmune conditions aren’t very well understood — and fibromyalgia is a good example of that. It’s terra incognita.”
Then he starts talking instead about post-traumatic stress disorder. “One of the markers for post-traumatic stress disorder is derealisation. Like when the things around you don’t seem real. And I was in a constant state of derealisation from October 2016 till …” — he checks the day’s date with a mirthless chuckle — “January 12th of 2021.”
Being Jordan Peterson, he explains, has involved five years of untold pressure. “I was at the epicentre of this incredible controversy, and there were journalists around me constantly, and students demonstrating. It’s really emotionally hard to be attacked publicly like that. And that happened to me continually for, like, three years.” In 2017, 200 of his colleagues “signed a petition at the University of Toronto to have me removed from my tenured position. And my faculty association forwarded that to the administration without even notifying me.” When he gave a talk at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ontario, “protesters were banging on the windows. It was like a zombie attack. They arrested a woman who was carrying a garotte, for God’s sake! And I was harassed directly after the demonstration by a small coterie of insane protesters who were in my face for two blocks, three blocks, yelling and screaming.”
Was it frightening? “I guess I’d have to say yes, definitely. I was concerned for my family. I was concerned for my reputation. I was concerned for my occupation. And other things were happening. The Canadian equivalent of the Inland Revenue service was after me, making my life miserable, for something they admitted was a mistake three months later, but they were just torturing me to death. The college of psychologists that I belonged to was after me because one of my clients had put forth a whole sequence of specious allegations. So that was extraordinarily stressful.”
He was — and remains — intensely frustrated that journalists keep casting his work as “fundamentally political”. “I really don’t like upsetting people,” he says. “I’m a clinical psychologist, it’s in my nature to help people. I’m not interested in generating controversy. I’ve been trying to help people [understand] that they need a profound meaning in their life because their lives are difficult.”
His fans’ enthusiasm for his tough-love message quite unravels him. “The response has been continually amazing. I don’t know what to make of it. What should I think of the fact that I have 600 million views on YouTube?” He certainly thinks about it a lot; he references his viewing figures repeatedly, with a kind of awestruck wonder. “So it’s the scale of exposure that’s — well, I mean, it’s not unparalleled, because there is no shortage of famous people, but it’s certainly unparalleled for me! I mean, when all this hit me I was already 55 or something. I’d laboured under relative obscurity. But now I’ve had this incredible view into the suffering of thousands and thousands of people, and I can’t go out without people coming up to me. And they’re usually quite emotional, and I’m …” His voice trembles, then cracks.
“You don’t have conversations like that, that often, outside of the clinical sphere. So part of what’s overwhelming to me is how it’s direct evidence of how little encouragement so many people get.” His face crumples into tears. “They’re starving …” He breaks down. “Sorry,” he sobs, “I haven’t done an interview for a long time.” He gets up to leave and returns a minute later carrying a towel to dry his eyes.
“And things just fell apart insanely with [his wife] Tammy. Every day was life and death and crisis for five months. The doctors said, ‘Well, she’s contracted this cancer that’s so rare there’s virtually no literature on it, and the one-year fatality rate is 100 per cent.’ So endless nights sleeping on the floor in emergency, and continual surgical complications.” He looks shellshocked. “So I took the benzodiazepines.”
Those drugs are notoriously addictive, I point out; he had surely heard enough horror stories about housewives hooked on Valium in the 1960s to be wary? “No, I really didn’t give it a second thought. They were prescribed and I just took them.”
Maybe they really were the cause of all his problems. The more he talks, though, the more I wonder whether toxic masculinity might have been a culprit, too. His family history of depression might tell us something about the price to be paid for his bootstrap philosophy; that when life became excruciatingly stressful, Peterson’s stand up, man up, suck it up mentality didn’t work. At the very point when the most famous public intellectual on the planet was preaching a regime of order and self-discipline, he was privately in chaos. Parallels with Donald Trump come to mind; another unhappy man closed off from his emotions, projecting strong man mythology while hunkered down in a bunker with his family against the world.
Peterson’s critics will undoubtedly point out that he built an entire intellectual philosophy upon the principle that life is all about pain and suffering; that the strong, manly response is to square one’s shoulders and battle through it, not to take drugs to numb the pain. “No, I’ve never said that. Look, if you’re a viable clinician you encourage people to take psychiatric medication when it’s appropriate. What I really encourage in people is to understand that it isn’t useful to allow your suffering to make you resentful. And, believe me, I’ve had plenty of temptation to become resentful about what’s happened to me in the last two years.”
When I watched the podcast he made last June with Mikhaila in Belgrade, I tell him, I thought he looked angry, and wondered who or what he was angry with. “Well, pain will make you angry.” Is any part of Peterson angry with himself for taking benzodiazepines? He hesitates. “I wouldn’t say angry. But it’s not like I failed to see the irony. That was another thing that continues to make it difficult to stomach. You know, should I have known better? Possibly.”
Mikhaila interrupts sharply. “Well …” but he continues. “I mean, I did do my thesis on alcoholism.” She raises her voice and waves her arms. “This is — hold up, hold up! You had a side-effect from a medication. Should you have known better that benzodiazepines can cause akathisia in people who take SSRIs?” “No,” Peterson defers. Enunciating each word, she spells out: “This. Wasn’t. A. Benzodiazepine. Dependency. Problem. This was an akathisia side-effect from psych meds.” Her father nods. “Right. Yes, that’s right.” Mikhaila checks the time. “We have to wrap up.” He glances up. “I’m doing OK, by the way.” “Yeah, yeah, I know. But still.” Is he absolutely sure, I try once more, that what he experienced wasn’t an understandable response to intolerable stress? “There’s no way akathisia is that,” Mikhaila snaps.
Peterson’s wife is making a miraculous recovery from cancer. His greatest source of stress right now is “fear that the akathisia will come back. It’s unbearable. And there’s always this sense that you could stop it, if you just exercised enough willpower. So it’s humiliating as well.” Does it generate a self-punishing voice in his head, accusing him of being weak? “Yes, definitely.” He worries that akathisia must look like weakness to everyone else too. “It’s certainly how it appears. Grotesque, for sure.”
He suffered akathisia for 26 days in November, and five in December — “and those episodes would last five to seven hours.” So far in January he has suffered none, “but I can feel it lurking”. Every morning he takes a 90-minute sauna, scrubs himself in the shower for 20 minutes, walks for between two and four hours, “and then I can begin to have something resembling a productive day”.
One thing that has not changed is his politics. Asked about the storming of the Capitol in Washington, he clicks back into more familiar, self-assured Peterson mode. “I thought that the continual pushing on the radical leftist front would wake up the sleeping right. I saw it coming five years ago. And you can put it at Trump’s feet, but it’s not helpful. I mean, obviously he was the immediate catalyst for the horrible events that enveloped Washington — and perhaps it’ll all die down when Trump disappears. But I doubt it.” Should Trump be impeached? “I think he should be ignored.”
Incredibly, throughout all of this he has managed to write another book — Beyond Order: 12 More Rules for Life — the sequel to his self-help bestseller. I ask how he feels about the prospect of its publication this spring. “Well, I’m ambivalent about it because I can’t judge the book properly. I didn’t write it under optimal circumstances, to say the least, so I can’t make an adequate judgment of its quality.”
Why didn’t he postpone the book until he was better?
“I can tell you why I did it. How I could do it. It was easy. Because the alternative was worse.” He’d lost a year to Tammy being ill, then a year to his own illness. “If I would have lost the book, I wouldn’t have had anything left.” I tell him I’m amazed he managed it, and he looks pleased.
“If you would have seen me, believe me, it would have been more amazing. When I recorded the audio book in November I was akathisic almost the entire time.” His voice raises and fills with pride. “I would go to the studio virtually convulsing in the car. I was moving just frenetically, and then I’d get upstairs into the studio and force myself to not move for two hours.
“If you would have asked me to lay odds on the probability that I would live to finish the recording, I would have bet you ten to one that I wouldn’t have. But I did the recording. And it was the same with the book. Because not to would have been worse. So, to the degree that I can explain how I was able to manage it, I’m not going to talk about willpower or courage, I’m going to talk about the lesser of two evils.”
Except, of course, that he has ended up framing his story in terms of his willpower and courage.
Beyond Order: 12 More Rules for Life by Jordan B Peterson is published on March 2 (Allen Lane £25)
submitted by theweeknd0nly to JordanPeterson [link] [comments]

$AYRO - The Most Underwritten EV Play on the Market

Yeah, I know, another fucking EV. Big whoop. We all know combustion engines are going the way of the rotary phone, what makes this any different from TSLA, NIO, WKHS, BLNK, or even GM and F?
Two words: Outlets and Segway.

Part I: The Market

Ayro is an EV with an economic moat. Ever consider why half of the EV plays are for charging stations? It's because these things need a lot of juice, and it's hard to get filled fast. Nio admittedly has a creative approach, but the additional batteries that need to be produced to functionally expand their business model is doomed when they try to scale up. We all know battery metals are in high demand, and they do not have a solution to this problem. And while the many new, competing charging stations plays may yield some much-needed supply for rapid charging on-the-go, there is a whole gigantic market for EV use that doesn't require this constant full-refueling, and just needs a more convenient down-payment cost.

If anything came from the slow-motion train wreck that was Nikola, it was an awareness for the potential of EV to disrupt the shipping industry. Couple near-zero fuel costs with quick-developing self-driving tech, and we're looking at a future where Amazon could basically offer free delivery. The only problem is, logistically, a network of EVs doing autonomous delivery is going to require a fuckton of cars. You can't have massive eighteen-wheel semis rolling down fifth avenue or up to college campus dorms all day, even with hydrogen fuel cells; the amount of cash you would have to come up with just as down payment on the trucks alone would be prohibitively expensive.

So what does that mean? It means we need last minute delivery. The people who drive the actual vans from the Amazon warehouse to you door? That's the market we're looking at here. And I know you just shuddered at the idea of counter playing the largest business in the world, but that's the beauty of this whole thing: we aren't counter-playing the future of driverless delivery, we're supplying it. There's going to be another Nikola eventually, someone who figures it out properly, and the shipping industry is going to change overnight. Warehouses will be emptied and filled so efficiently that the demand will be on getting from the Warehouse to people's homes. Opinion: The amount of money it will cost for a fleet of EV pick-up trucks/vans, and the amount of time it will take to charge given projections by any of the major charging station plays, cannot compete with the cost and efficiency of Ayro 411 type micro-trucks.

Part II: The Product

What the fuck is a 411 micro truck? It's the god-damn future, that's what. The 411 is a light-duty EV made by Club Car. Yes, Club Car, the golf cart company. The company that has produced small scale electric vehicles for recreational and short distance transport since Nineteen-Fifty-Eight. If you come across any number of bot articles entitled "AYRO is a classic pump-and-dump," just remember they're partnered with the longest-standing, most consistently profitable EV company in the world.

The Ayro 411 is a miniature truck that can be configured as a flat bed, pick-up, or covered van during the purchase process. There are a number of additional customization upgrades, and the process feels quite akin to purchasing a Tesla Model 3. They cost about $30,000, a price tag that will only be going down as of their completion of a new factory in Texas and a new contract with Karma Automotive to produce 20,000 units over the next three years.

So what?
So here's what: the 411 charges on a three prong outlet. No, I'm not fucking joking. This is a truck, a 35 mph, street legal delivery vehicle that requires $0 of additional costs to function. Buy it, plug it in, drive it around. You can't go very far and you can't go very fast but guess what? Ayro doesn't give a fuck! Because that market is already dominated by Tesla, who are years ahead of a dozen other solid competitors. None of them can compete in the short-distance space. The upfront costs of their batteries and recharge stations are too much for the margins of what we're dealing in here. Tesla is only profitable right now because of EV credits; when those dry up, investors better pray they made sufficient preparations to pivot into the solar market with a stiff arm.

But the best part is, because Ayro doesn't compete with Tesla, their success is Ayro's. Consider Tesla's own semi play: if they produced the Hydrogen fuel cell behemoth Nikola promised, someone has to come up with a fleet of last minute delivery at some point. Amazon could do it, but guess what? All their vehicles are still combustion. That will only become less profitable (if not outright banned) in the next 10 years or so. Who will be available? Ayro, with customizable 411s. Tag on the inevitable advent of universally applicable self-driving tech, and you have the future of logistics.

Even without the delivery angle, these things could be massive on college campuses, at vacation resorts, or in large indoor complexes for such as sporting arenas or exposition centers. Anywhere people use a golf cart to get around now, they could be using an Ayro truck that is probably better suited for the task (except maybe an actual golf course). These could also become a boon for the ride-sharing industry, where fuel costs account for a sizeable loss of profit-margin right now.
Side note: did I mention the 411 has a food-cart model? It's made by Gallery, and it's fucking lit. This will change the game for food trucks, mark my words. Once they figure out how to get one of these bad boys with a stove on it, Ayro is going to blow up all over foodies social media, and its gonna be the new hot thing. "Micro-electric van life" influencers will surely abound. Loathsome, I know, but at least we'll get fucking rich, right?

Part III: The Business

Alright, u/y_u_no_mek, I'll admit I'm intrigued. But why should I trust you, a random redditor, with my precious tendies?
You shouldn't. I'm not a financial advisor. I barely have a college degree, more like an adult preschool certificate. But you know who you should trust? Rod "The Iron Cock" Keller, Ayro's CEO and guywhofucks in chief.
If you aren't familiar, in 2012 Big Rod K was already a former VP at Toshiba, Siemans, then DirecTV, before taking over as president of a then little-known and oft-ridiculed company making nifty electric transportation gadgets. Some idiots said they were the future and most people thought they looked pretty fucking stupid. Fast forward three years, and The Rod of God had turned his company into a staple of city-tourism the world over. That company? Segway. What happened to Segway under Rod Keller? It became the largest personal transport vehicle company in the world. Yeah, it's creative semantics. but guess what? He made everyone a shit ton of money. He took one of the stupidest brands/products I can think of, and made it not only profitable, but popular. This isn't an idea that should have failed, it's an idea that DID fail as soon as Keller left the company. Segway may not be the same ballpark as a proper EV, but it is at very least a testament to the man's ability to lead and grow a business. Rock-the-Stock Rod has over 25 years of experience as a tech executive- If you don't trust me, trust him.
The Club Car and Karma Automotive contracts also speak volumes for Ayro's capacity as a serious player, especially in a market where most "competitors" (who are really no threat, as we've established) are brand new startups run by over-eager, over-exuberant leadership with little-to-no experience in a budding sector (See: Nikola).
Which brings me to my penultimate point: Ayro's fundamentals. Yes, they have struggled to turn over strong profit margins in the last few quarters, and even posted some losses as recently as a year ago. But guess what? They have eight quarters of cash to burn. You don't come across that kind of cash-on-hand in the startup space right now, especially not for a company that is aggressively expanding production capacity. You know what I think? I think $AYRO stock is getting hammered by AI traders who see that low profit margin and think "this thing is a load of shit," without realizing that the source of the expense is largely investment in future profits. The company isn't old enough to get us a good sense of their ROCI, but I would venture to guess this next fiscal year will do very well for Rod "the killer" Keller and his three-pronged magic bus.

Part IV: The Stonk

Well if you read Lily's blog, you already know the stock market has nothing to do with fundamentals. So what do we know about $AYRO as an options derivative? Well, for one thing it already has fairly massive short interest for a low volume, a metric which will start drawing a lot more attention in the wake of #gamestonk. But more important than that, Ayro is just straight-up undervalued as an EV. EVEN IF the whole EV sector is one giant bubble, the worst of the worst bear case, Ayro can drop at most $7/share. The upside? Fucking massive. I don't know how the rest of you feel about roulette, but I prefer $5 on on 36 to $150 on black. Every EV has the potential to lose massive market cap right now (including Tesla), but the potential upside for Ayro hasn't been limited by runaway speculation quite yet. Compare, for instance, Ayro, Nio, and Tesla.

Nio MC: $89 Billion
Limits: Requires huge scale of battery production

Fisker MC: $4 Billion
Limits: scale and batteries; market dilution, distance, recharge solutions

Workhorse MC: $5 Billion
Limits: scale, market dilution, debts, recharge solutions

Tesla MC: $807 Billion
Limits: Long/expensive recharge solutions, implementation of recharge infrastructure, impractical at short-distance scale

Ayro MC: $209 Million
Limits: Surge protector


Wait did you say millio-

$209 MMMMMMILLION

That's right, Ayro has a market cap of 0.2% of Nio.


Stop. Take a deep breath. Look at yourself in the mirror. If you could pay $20 or 2 Cents for a bet with a similar payout, which would you take? Neither has shifty leadership. Both have strong growth potential. But one is limited by physical metal in the ground and the other is a functional product. I know which I would take.


TL;DR
Ayro is a beautiful, highly undervalued growth play with fundamentals that would make Warren Buffet himself shed tears of pure value-investor ichor. Short distance, standard outlet charging tech means it does not compete with Tesla, Nio, Fisker, or any other EV play. Solid, experienced leadership means the company has good financial sense. Market cap is wildly undervalued, even in the face of a potential EV bubble.

We like the stock

Obligatory holdings: 777 shares picked up @3.28 (Initially had 1000, sold off a few around $8.00) Purchased 4 Calls @12.50 exp Jan 21, 2022 Sold 2 Puts at 2.50 exp 1/21/2023 Sold 7 Calls @17.50 exp 5/21
EDIT: Today was crazy. I had a feeling this was coming, I just didn't think it would be this soon. I believe the stock still has plenty of room to run, so I will be holding for a while longer. Bought more shares at the start of the morning to being my total to 1000; sold 3 more calls @17.50 5/21 exp. (my whole position). Will most likely exercise my 12.50 calls if we hit that high, then turn around and sell those calls around $30. Hopefully free premium monies. Will update this thread if there are any major price changes/news updates
submitted by y_u_no_mek to thecorporation [link] [comments]

GME valuation

This is not financial advice (maybe we need to change some laws if we have to always write these disclosures)
I’m a former financial adviser that left the business back in 2012 because I was tired of the manipulation by large institutions. The game is rigged but understand the game if you are going to play.
What is GME worth- for all of you that like the stock. I think what you are saying is that you like video games, and the culture around gaming, and you want to support is a company that promotes those ideas. I can fully get behind that. And I can hope the GME management took the run up in stock price as an opportunity to bring some of your new capital in, and continue to restructure and develop a really amazing company around the future of gaming.
At some point though the price of GME stopped being about GME fundamentals or even a restructured growth story and started to be about a short squeeze. A very valid reason to buy the stock. Watching this all play out I noticed there was a point that short interest stopped going down. Institutions are sharks and will sell their grandmothers for a few dollars but many belong to larger entities that are not about to let a small trading arm take down their whole company. When the shorts stopped covering it wasn’t because they were continuing to hold onto their losing bet. But it was because they had already lost. The legal entities and their clearing houses holding these short positions were already theoretically bankrupt. It did not matter what the overnight borrowing costs to short the stock were and it didn’t matter what the price went to if the entity was bankrupt at $300, it is not More bankrupt at $400. You can be right about bankrupting some Wall Street institutions but still lose money if you are paying more for your trade than you will ever get back. My theory on the trading range over the past week is that some long side institutions said it wasn’t worth owning over a certain amount and were willing to buy at maybe $150 but wanted to sell at $300 (these numbers are theoretical). Bankruptcy payouts take a long time, and if your money is tied up waiting for a bankruptcy judge to approve who gets what money... well that can take years. Not ideal for portfolio returns. Summed up there is some value that can be extracted from the shorts but that dollar amount is not infinite. There is an upper bound on the short squeeze price. Also, and this is more speculation, but the longer this goes on, the better Wall Street will be at extracting value out of the bankrupt institutions, and shifting more risk to the bankrupt entities- unwinding risk off of the other entities. If you are bankrupt, you don’t borrow your last dollars from your credit card to put it on black at the roulette table, you put it on fucking 17 and hope the payout bails you out. And if you and your friend are both in financial trouble, you talk your friend who is already bankrupt into borrowing a few more dollars (because no one can save him anyway) and “giving” you that money so you can get out debt.
I bought some GME this morning because it felt like a good gamble and my guess is that there are still some value in the short entities
Edit - grammar
submitted by larkin7788 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

DD - Patience is a Virtu

Well done. Somehow, against all odds, a large number of you autistic fucks have made some life changing gains on GME. This post is in no way encouraging you to sell your positions or even open new ones. Thats because I'm not a fiduciary advisor and know fuck all about what you should or shouldn't do. All I will say is welcome to all the new members out there and if there's one piece of advice I can give you, its to trust your gut.
Now lets get into it. This post is my DD that I wanted to share on $VIRT, not because I am recommending you to do anything, but because I enjoy researching shit because its fun and I figured this would help organize my thoughts.
So lets get into it. I'm sure most of you have noticed the new exposure this sub has been getting on a worldwide scale. If you've been here even since Dec. in 2020, you'd notice this sub has even gained over 6M subscribers in the last month. I'm not going to tell you I've been around since the start, I've just been lurking and a post or comment every once and a while since I started following a few years ago. The sub count really means fuck all to be honest, the real numbers that are important here are the #'s of new retail traders joining the markets while bringing in new money by doing so. Give this Reuters article a quick read (promise it will only take 5 minutes, 10 if you're a true retard): https://www.reuters.com/article/us-retail-trading-numbers-idUSKBN29Y2PW
For those who are lazy fucks who don't want to open the article: with no fee trading, retail traders have flooded the market. To what extent you may ask, and why the fuck does this matter? Well back in Jan 2020, before the March crash, retail made up ~17% of trades on the market. By July/August, this shot up to 25%. Some analyst in this article noted their prediction for 2021 is 30%+ of volume will be made up of retail. THE TREND IS INCREASING for those of you who couldn't pass your 2nd grade math class. So why did i even mention GME to start? Well according to an analyst from Piper Sandler, this past Wednesday set a new record for volume traded for US cash equities of 24.5 Billion . Thats volume traded, not a $ amount. Options volume also hit a record high in volume at 57.1 Million. For both stocks and options, this supposedly is double the record in volume traded in a single day from 2020, or triple in 2019. One last important #, its estimated amongst the top 6 brokers, there are 100 Million+ retail traders. 100 Million thats a fuck ton of regular Joes' and retards joining the game gambling away their $600 stimulus checks.
TLDR: Retail trading #s are going the fuck up, and fast. This in turn mean a fuck ton more volume traded on the market.
OK Cool. Why does this matter? Well aside from Melvin Securities (Melvin Capitals Market Makescum of the earth), there are other Market Makers that do the same thing (provide liquidity to brokers allowing autists like us to buy and sell stocks and options). Companies like $VIRT, Virtu Financial, that are publicly traded. Lets take a look at the breakdown of trading volume across market makers, Brokers, Liquidity providers etc:
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/BjrX0/1/
$VIRT has showed a consistent increase in trading revenue and EPS since their IPO in 2015. This growth is due to various synergies on their platform from previous buyouts, volume spikes (due to volatility) and you guessed it, an increased amount of retail trading. According to their 2019 full year report, they supported approximately ~30% of all retail trading. This is up from 25% the previous year. https://s21.q4cdn.com/422114427/files/doc_financials/2019/aVirtu_2019_AnnualReport_Final.pdf
Ok so why does all this matter, if this trend in increased retail trading continues, that means more trading income for $VIRT. And turn, higher earnings. Why? This is because those Ask/Bid spreads you see when buying/selling are typically provided through market makers. They make money off of these spreads. 1 cent here or there, maybe a little more for wider spreads times millions of trades/day equals out to big money for them. An even bigger wet dream would be if Melvin Securities went under and that portion of the market making sector being open for the taking. Then again, that probably won't happen but regardless Fuck Melvin.
So what else? $VIRT has provided a $0.24 dividend for 22 consecutive quarters and also announced $100 million in buy backs on their Q3 report released in Nov 2020, also making a statement to "meaningfully enhance shareholder returns" with additional buybacks and dividends moving forward. And a shout out to the true gambling addicts who love earnings plays, $VIRT has earnings coming up on Feb 11th. Thats this Thursday. Lets even take a look at their revenue growth. According to their 2019 full year report, Virtu took in $1.5B in revenues. Fast forward to the first 3 quarters of 2020, that totals over $2.5B and we still even haven't seen Q4 results yet. While yes, the volume in March/April played a part in this, Q3 revenues were still over $650M, which is still over a third of the full 2019 year. Their current market cap is only ~$5.4B with a PE of 6.6. Talk about nice returns. Time to bet on the Casino instead sitting down at the fucking roulette table.
TLDR: More retail trading = more $$ for market makers like $VIRT
Positons: https://imgur.com/a/4QJA38m
Planning on converting to shares for long term holding with an eventual PT of $100 by end of 2021.
submitted by TheLevelHeadedGuy to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

No one knows jack about shit!!

Honestly, im a newbie here and I won’t even start to pretend that I know anything about the stock market. Ive been glued to this sub for a week now and have been reading most of the DD posts. And honestly, most of it were purely speculation. They were really compelling and most of it made sense (to a degree) so that I myself bought into it when it was at 80$, averaged UP a lot (i know im a retard), missed the exit point when it was at the top and now Im holding the bag as a reminder to at least take out some cash when its going good. But thats just a side note.
All of you belittling the holders, such as myself, don’t pretend that you know what’s gonna happen next. Bc your guess is as good as anyones. You have as little information as the rest of us. We all might know whats likely to happen but you don’t run up into a casino and laugh at a guy who goes all in on a number on the roulette table. ITS A GODDAM BET. And yes, the odds of this thing going to the moon are not very good. But it could be still possible. (Don’t ask me how or why, I don’t know jack shit, remember?) So how about you take a step back and let the people who have still skin in the game gamble? If you have more skin in this than you can afford get out and get help. Seriously. But the rest of us. Fuck it ill be going through this hellhole right now just to see if there’s maybe a rocketship waiting for us after all to yeet us right up to the moon and beyond.If not. Well it’ll be the same situation as it is now, most of the money is gone anyways. Imagine texas holdem. The price to see the next card is already paid. So you might aswell stick around to actually see the next card.
submitted by koitart to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Do NOT buy Quantumscape (QS) - unless you just want to gamble with -EV

Ok so this post mirrors my post from almost 6 months ago when I posted about Hertz the day it reached its top of 6+ dollars after already announcing bankruptcy (it went from like 50 cents to 6+ dollars). You can see my submitted post history for that. Since this is an options post, I'll talk about something that rarely anyone ever talks about but impacts options pricing - the borrow rate - so that it's an informative post too even if you aren't interested in QS.
For the record I'm posting this as QS is 105 AH 12/21 so I can look back in 3-6 months. First, I'm not short QS so I don't want to hear some comment below saying you are just desperate because you are taking a huge loss. I'm posting this as a warning/advice just like when I posted about Hertz because at this point it's actually extremely negative expected value (EV) to go long QS through call options/shares.
First the IV is ridiculously high. There could be many situations that play out in which you can buy calls, it goes up 10%, and you will end up down. Second, one of the reasons for why anyone would buy QS is to collect the borrow rate, which is insane. However, most brokers don't give the customer this borrow or if they do, don't give the full borrow. For RH, you get none of this borrow, so this alone makes this very -EV at these price points. Finally, the most obvious reason, it's quite clear this stock is overvalued as it won't even have any revenue or sales for a few years. It's similar to NKLA actually (look at that chart when it briefly hit 90 earlier this year).
The stock is undergoing a short squeeze with high borrow rates, which is causing this spike, but historically these stop pretty fast and when it pulls back, all those calls/shares will lose value. There's like plenty of examples of this just this year, and the goal is obviously not to buy at the top. The main issue is also when it pulls back, it doesn't usually EVER bounce back up. See the NKLA bagholders at 90, HTZ bagholders at 6, KODK bagholders at 55, etc.
In the case you just wanted to just gamble, it's actually not a bad stock to purely gamble. However, there are plenty of better gambles out there that should return a higher expected return. Second, gambling is fine but we all know what happens when you play roulette in the long run. Sure you can hit that 23 number you bet on, but the more you push it, the quicker all of that goes away. So that's why this is a fair warning. You can gamble and you might win even for a short time period, but most will be left holding the bag. And when they hold the bag, they hold it all the way down.
I also wouldn't outright short this right now unless you want to sell a long dated call spread/naked OTM long-dated call. As I mentioned, the IV and borrow are extremely high, so a short term long puts strategy will have an extremely tough time printing. Furthermore, it's somewhat hard to short the stock with this high borrow, and that borrow is embedded in puts too. However, longer term, it's clearly a short at these levels, but you have to do it in some more unique ways as I mentioned above.
Finally, if QS spikes up from this 105 AH number, I guarantee you there will be some idiots who are gonna be posting here in the comments section about how they were right/I was wrong (see the HTZ comments). I'm ok with that. That means I didn't call the top exactly perfectly, but as I said, you can revisit this post in 3-6 months. Ironically on HTZ, the day after I posted, it did actually go up that day (to 6+), got a lot of shit comments, and I'm sure 100% of those guys lost money since it has never even seen anywhere close to that price ever again as the next day was the top. So same situation here. Just a fair warning. If anything, at least you learned how borrow rates affect options pricing and short positions.
submitted by infinitelimits00 to options [link] [comments]

TIFU for falling for a guy on Tinder during Covid and got scammed out of life savings

TLDR: Met a guy on Tinder while lonely and depressed. We talked every day on the phone, but couldn't meet because of Covid. He invited me to join him on a Chinese investing app. I didn't question him because I was attached and blindly trusted him. Invested my entire life savings and took debt into the app to invest into "our future". I now can't withdraw that money and also found out I was catfished. Heart-broken, depressed, and will probably be homeless. The guy doesn't know this, and is still taking to me trying to get me to invest more.

I met a guy on Tinder, he seems really nice and smart. We quickly moved to talking every day on the phone. He would frequently send me pictures of himself or what he's doing. We also started talking about hobbies and one of our common ones was investing. He lured me with screenshots of this Usdt investing / betting app, and all the hundreds of thousands of dollars he made.
I wanted in since he said that he analyses the data, and only bets when he has good data. He was very dodgy when I kept asking him what the data he is using is - and only saying he will teach me later down the road. So the betting app (yes he marketed as investing USDT, but it's purely betting roulette) has multiple tiers with min balance requirements - 0,20k,50k,150k. Over time , I made 10-15% principle each time I traded with him, so eventually I invested over 150k into the apo because he convinced me that the larger players have more steady volume for analysis. I'm so dumb, and it was all through bitcoins to an app that has no information other than the customer service whatsapp that takes my questions and deposits. He even encouraged me by continually matching my deposits in order to 'help' me earn more. He was such a sweet talker, painting the future we could have together traveling and buying houses around the world.
A couple hiccups - I tried to outsmart the system and placed bets on 4 different options, and since they had positive odds at the 150k tier, would have been guaranteed profits. This caused me to get flagged for money laundering where I then I had to cough up 3% of my balance as a penalty fee within 24 hours or risk my account getting frozen forever. Fine, I thought it was unreasonable, but my fault. I scrambled, asked for favors, and borrowed money to pay the 17k ransom (yes the amount grew with my and his deposits combined). After that resolved, we were ready to make some big money in Dec - since my tinder date says Dec has historically great data for betting. He also showed me a promotion the app was running where we could wnter as a couple, and win prizes depending on how much we deposited. The only one we were eligible for was the 500k deposit one, and of course, we both just needed 1-200k more to finish the challenge and win "free" money. I never should have agreed to this either, but my tinder date's optimism won me over. Now we are stuck in another drama where my tinder date convinced me to participate in the couples challenge, where if we deposit 500k each, we get rewarded 125k. Too good to be true? Yes, but I was blinded. Little did I know as well, that if you don't complete the challenge by the end of 2020, apparently the penalty is losing 3% of the balance every day until you lose 60%.
I'm at such a lost in trying to borrow more funds, as my tinder date continues to pressure me and guilt trip me as he helps me contribute tens of thousands in as well. It's a scam, I'm pretty sure he can manipulate the numbers. The pivot point that woke me up, was when I was forced to ask friends to lend me money (and that they were also going to get loans to help me out). In order to not screw over friends I decided to do more due diligence again. Then I found it, I finally found some of the pictures he used in our WhatsApp conversations online from a chinese real life people photo bank. I haven't revealed that I know about the scam and am still in conversation, but I'm still trying to figure out how i can possible get my money back on this.
I've literally deposited my life savings as well as took out loans and debt to try to complete the deposit challenge. I'm going to be in debt and living paycheck to paycheck for awhile. This is a good lesson - I was emotionally blinded by a guy that would sweet talk with me every day, asking about me, and caring about me. I so efficiently found money to deposit into this scam app, without doing my normal due diligence because I was blinded by .. love? I feel like crap and am just hoping to resolve this well somehow...
Update: I really appreciate the support from redditors here, and I hope this provides a story that others can remember that getting catfished sucks. I've contacted police, IC3, FTC, and a couple of lawyers. The only advise is to see if police will investigate, but I was told chances are slim to none because the culprit is probably not in the country. I'm still chatting with my scammer, and am so far holding family troubles as an excuse to not have any more money to give. He's very persistent though, and still has that silver tongue. Honestly I'm not sure what kind of outcome I am hoping for by not simply blocking him at this point.
submitted by aspiring-minimalist to tifu [link] [comments]

Anybody kinda sad about doge?

No not the price, not the opportunity. The fact that people who know absolutely nothing about crypto are (more than likely) getting ripped off. There is an infinite supply, they're betting against themselves with inflation since more are produced constantly. It's all FUD. I HAD doge for the fun of it but I can't help but think inflation will take over these uneducated investors and lose them huge amounts of money.
If you have doge I support you. I want to see you make a ton of money, but first please educate yourself about blockchain tech. Then projects and dev teams. Don't just blindly follow others, this isn't WSB and even then they have been wrong before as a group.
At the end of the day crypto is just as much as a gamble as anything else. Some cryptos (BTC, ETH) will give you the best odds possible. Compare it to all in on a hand of blackjack vs all in on one number in roulette (DOGE). Just know what you're getting into.
Felt necessary to say. Mods delete if not allowed.
submitted by randonegus to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Stories from 12 years of Casino Industry

I was asked to make a post about some stories within the Casino grounds so I thought I'd share. I have many so I'll do my best to pick the better ones.
Some back information: I've been a Casino Dealer for 11 years, I've been a supervisor for five years, and I've been a Surveillance Operator for one year. I've worked at three properties, none of which are connected or owned by the same company. I've worked on : Government/Private/Native American owned casinos.
  1. From Hero to Zero.
At my first Casino, I was one of the first group of people who were trained to deal Roulette . After 4 weeks of working 6PM-3AM then doing roulette training from 3AM-8AM (Not paid) , I actually really enjoyed the game and after about six months I became extremely quick at the number game and the pace of the action was steady with very low margin of errors. Young man walks in, cashes in for $500. He buys in for $2 chips and just loads the board. After a few spins and pretty decent hits, he then changes his chips from $2 to 5$ then to $10 and racks his winnings up to $10,000. It was then, five spins in a row, he loaded the board with some pretty gross bets, and every spin I would hit the ONE number with either NO CHIPS on it, or maybe 1 chip , He lost all $10,000 in a matter of minutes. He leaves , and I go on break. After my break I was going back to the same table and wouldn't you know it, the same young man walks in and cashes in another $500. He tells me he just sold his car outside and this is all that he had left. So we do the same deal, buys in for $2 chips, then slowly starts betting $5 chips, $10, $25...and he makes $10,000 AGAIN. Within the next 25 minutes it was straight agony. Every spin, same thing, he would bet $2500 in chips, and win only $250, $400, and after about a half hour he lost it all . Never saw the guy again.
2) Man down
At this property, we are 24 hours for table games. It's currently 5AM , and I'm dealing some $25 Blackjack to this guy. He's probably early thirties , heavy guy. He's sober as can be, but right away I can tell he's been losing. We know how much you've bought in for, how much your down, or up, and I could see he was down $2000+. After about twenty minutes of pure losing, his temper starts to flare.At this point I now have two other guests at my table. Drinking coffee, not saying a word, just losing their money. After losing hand, after hand, this guy looks me straight in the eye, seized up, starts shaking, he can't move. He tries to punch towards me and smashes his stack of chips all over the place and falls backwards to the floor. I call for security, we cannot touch him due to liability . I can't move from my table because, well, liability / casino cash property, all I can do is try to talk to him. As I'm doing so, these other two woman who are sitting at my table just look at me and one says "OK, dealer, cmon lets go " as she taps the table telling me to start dealing and forget about the guy having a stroke on the floor. As security takes him to the ambulance out front, I had to stay behind for a couple minutes and give a statement. I go on break. I come back, and 45 minutes later, he comes right back in with a oxygen tank and keeps gambling for the remainder of the morning.
3) You get a dildo, and YOU get a dildo!
On a late summer Saturday night, we had a large event for these massive muscle guys/strongman competition type thing. After their show, I'm at the roulette table , and five of these boys come over to play. They were absolutely hilarious. They were feeling pretty good, cashed in somewhat large amounts and I could tell this was going to be a fun time. After about a hour of dealing to these guys, it's almost midnight, everybody is pretty hammered , I spin the ball, and all five of these guys take out these god damn (what I can only tell was) two feet purple dildos from inside their pants, and wiping them around in the air. The ladies were just loving it, one of the dildos landed in the roulette wheel and we had to shut the table down to re-calibrate the wheel to make sure nothing had been changed. I just remember that night was so much damn fun, I couldn't believe what I was seeing and I would never forget it.
4) Full Moon
On this day, I was actually training dealers / supervising them on small games like Three Card poker. We opened the table at 10AM, and this older man came and sat down . He played all day. The jackpot was $21,000 and that was pretty high for this table. He played, and played and played. He's one of the players where you know he's wearing a diaper because he's been drinking coffee/pop all day and hasn't moved in eight hours. As the day went on, this man never moved from his chair. Getting closer to midnight, he was aggravated and said "I need to go have a smoke, I'm getting killed in here". He left, and the very next hand, the lady beside him was dealt the jackpot . He didn't say much, but you could just tell he just hated life at that very moment because had he not gotten up, it would of been his hand. The man calmly took his cane , his hat, jacket, coffee, and left. The next morning I found out when he did leave he drove his car straight through his bank and was arrested.
5) Slick Robber
I actually give props to people who can actually pull this off. This story may confuse you so I'll try and explain things as best as possible. A lot of casinos have machines as soon as you walk through the front doors. A man walks up to one of these machines and sticks in HIS $100 bill. He doesn't gamble it, instead he hits the cash out button and gets a $100 TITO ticket where he then takes the ticket to the ATM machine to get his $100. Now remember, his Original $100 is in the slot machine. He then takes the $100 from the ATM and goes back to the same machine, and repeats this process over a hundred times. Essentially he's taking money from the ATM, and loading up the Slot Machine . Now he knows he can't do it too much because if the slot machine gets full of money, the machine will shut down and the slow attendant will have to take all the cash out. So he deposits over $10,000 , then has a small crowbar, he cracks the machine open and makes a run out the front door. To my knowledge he was never caught . But damn, that was pretty smart .
EDIT:
6) Mental Health is a thing.
10PM man walks in to play some high limit BlackJack. This guy knows the game and played well. Dressed nice, drank juice/tea , a little bit of a attitude, cashed in over $10,000. When this man was half way down his buy in, he said something a long the lines of "If I don't win here tonight, I'm going to go set myself on fire." I wasn't sure if he was serious because when people are down, they tend to say a lot of nonsense. I actually left early that night, and from a third party was told he did exactly that in the parking lot. The next day it was clear something terrible had gone wrong in the parking lot .
EDIT:
7) Nothing good happens after midnight
After a busy Saturday night, I was dealing a mix of games, and during this story I was in the middle of Blackjack. I had one young kid (probably 19) sitting in the middle, one older male probably in his later 40's sitting beside him on his right, and I had a really nice couple in their 20's sitting together at the other side. This young kid wasn't playing just sort of watching, and ever time the old man won he would give this young guy some of his winnings. The older man, was a wine drinker, and he had black between all of his teeth, I'll never forget. He's a little drunk but nothing terrible. As the night goes on, the older man goes and uses the washroom, at which point the couple asked the young guy "Oh was that your dad?" and the young guy says "Hah, no I wish!". The couple and I just looked at each other. This old guy, was in complete control over this kid. Absolutely disgusting. The night ends, and I find out the couple called a few of their friends, and they all waited outside by this old mans truck and beat the living hell out of him. 40 years old, sleeping with a 19 year old, completely brain washed . Very weird.
8) That one co-worker where you just wish they would quit.
One of our co-workers, nice guy but had a very big ego and we as employees just sorta left him alone. One day he had enough of the atmosphere and quit. Now usually when you quit, you cannot come back until you paperwork is finalized. How ever, HR was in that day, and he was given the paperwork the very next day. He came in, cashed in $1000, and made $50,000 in about a hour at the Baccarat table. My manager, was extremely annoyed, because now this guy is just mocking the casino and having the time of his life (Thanks for the big tip by the way :) ) and so he decides to call it quits. He wants to ban himself and he wants $50,000 in cash. The casino says Nope, we are going to give you a cheque. Now here's the thing, most business people will take the cheque, how ever you CANT CASH the cheque until the following monday because it's on that day where the funds are available. The casino on the other hand will cash their own check in anytime , because they want you to play. So this guy pretty much said go to hell I want my cash, and he called the police. Police show up, and management promptly gave him the cash.I though it was absolutely hilarious .

9) No good deed goes un punished
I was dealing Three Card Poker, and the jackpot was around $17,000. This old man (a regular) was sitting there all day grinding it out. Super nice guy, always a pleasure to deal to. Well, after hours of playing, he stands up and says "Hey john!, can you come here for a minute?" so his buddy John comes over. He says to John "I need to go take a piss real quick, can you play my card until I get back?" John agrees . John takes the chips and I stop him and explain he can't play his friends chips, he needs to cash in and play his own. And he does. Welp, second hand out and bam, doesn't he win it. The old man comes back and is so happy, he can't believe it. John, took his $17,000, didn't say a word to his "buddy" and walked away. I never felt so much hatred in all my life. Didn't give him a dollar, not a thank you, nothing. The old man sits back down again, the progressive resets to $2500, and he sat there grinding away again.
10) The Top Knot
I had this player , young guy, who was born into a fortune. One of his relatives passed away and left him a pretty big sizable amount of money, so he played poker every single day for the rest of his days. I will add, he IS a good player. I did not enjoy his company just because of the "Know-it-All" attitude, but he was good. We'll call him John. John is 5'10, and well build, with muscle. John also decided today was the day to show off his Top Knot. (google top knot if you're not sure what I mean) So he sits down, and he's absolutely KILLING the table. Every hand, after hand, after hand. And because he's in such a good mood, he's playing any two cards, calling any $500 bet, and he's just dominating. This one guy at the table decided he had enough. He got up, without saying a word and left. A moment later, he comes back in, walks behind John, and takes a pair of scissors , and cuts off his Top Knot. I for one couldn't believe it, dying laughing inside, and it just turned into one big brawl. That was a good day.
11) That one bad seed
One of my best friends who I haven't seen in YEARS ended up being part of the crew. Was kind of nice to catch up. We never really got along as we grew up because he has a very high picture of himself . He wanted that 10/10 woman. A mansion, and a new Corvette. So every month or so we would all go up to the other casino to play. I myself would bring no more than $500, but I couldn't understand how this guy (we'll call him Kyle) was spending THOUSANDS of dollars at the tables. So this wen on for a few months. Well, one day, as we're closing the casino, he and I are in the High Limit room and we're getting ready to close the tables. We are told to take the chips out, count them, put them back, sign this piece of paper and that's it. Well as the supervisor was locking the tray, the piece of paper fell to the floor, so she asked Kyle to grab the piece of paper. As he bends over, a great big $500 chip falls right out of his sock. Kyle was fired immediately , but it all made sense. They offered Kyle a deal where if he replaced all the stolen chips they would not make it public. Not sure how that turned out.
12) If I ever decide to write a book, this will be the last chapter: <3
After working at my first Casino for five years, I met a Indian woman who was visiting from another part of the country. During this time I was explaining a game to her, which honestly I don't think she even cared. She explained she was visiting and sight seeing , and that was that.Well, two years later I ended up moving to the other side of the country and transferred casinos, and low and behold she worked there as a Dealer. We got married , and it's been 5 years.
13) The Tip
One of our tables that we've had for a couple years had a progressive jackpot that had reached $100,000. The dealer at the table was sitting pretty lonely. Nobody really played the game because people knew it was extremely difficult to win the jackpot. My memory is a tad foggy, but you somehow needed to flop the royal flush. This young guy sits down and says to the dealer, we'll call him John. "John, if you pay me that jackpot, I will tip you $10,000" Well John started dealing, and about a half hour into his shift, he F*cking did it. He dealt him the royal. And you know something?This young lad, kept his word, and he made sure there was a audience, and he tipped exactly $10,000. That was a moment right there. That pay cheque was real nice. I think we all got about $500 more than usual. The moment that jackpot was awarded they got rid of the table because the money it was making was not near what the casino wanted. I'm sure there have been bigger tips at other casinos, but that was something special .
14) The Lawsuit
Now this story I'm going to have to beat around the bush a bit due to the nature of what happened. I can't won't answer any questions that you may have on this topic other than what I have to say because it had a lot of publicity . The waitresses at this casino had to wear very thin sexy clothes. Not borderline legal, but it was noticed. One day they called all the waitresses to come in and explained they were changing their outfit to something even more sexier. Now these new dresses were very very borderline legal . The staff said No way. We're not wearing that.So , friday night comes, and the staff work their whole shift, then at the end of their shift were called into a meeting and were all fired. Welp, one of those ladies father was a pretty big time lawyer. Brough the casino to court and won. They won big. Good for them. We had no waitresses for a couple days haha.
Thanks for reading along, I have many more I can add as the day goes on, those were just some off the top of my head. Feel free to ask any questions of the Casino industry. I don't really have many stories about the surveillance department because that's the one area where I can't really say a whole lot due to its privacy and contracts I was and still am under.
submitted by viodox0259 to TalesFromTheFrontDesk [link] [comments]

I live in a small mining town in the mountains of Colorado. Someone is building a massive casino nearby, Pictures Included

I grew up in a small mountain town named Eureka. It was founded in the late 1800s during the gold rush, but after the mines dried up the town began its slow descent into decay. Half the houses are empty or abandoned now.
You can see a picture of the kind of houses here in Eureka:
First house
Second house
When a massive construction project began nearby, it was the talk of the town for weeks. Why would they build something in a sleepy dying town like Eureka? It wasn’t until my sister Selene talked to a few construction workers that we discovered they were building a casino.
A casino up in the mountains, over two hours away from Denver. None of us could understand why they’d chosen here of all places. After a few months of work, the casino was done.
I took a picture of the town with the completed casino in the background to the right. The ten-story-structure sticks out like a sore thumb off in the distance.
Town+Casino
After the casino opened, they hired a few dozen members of the town, offering high paying jobs to work as dealers or cleaning staff. I was already employed as a firefighter, but my sister Selene got a job as a blackjack dealer. She’s a widow with two young kids, so the paycheck was a real lifesaver.
Still, something about the situation seemed too good to be true. The jobs over there paid far too well, and the management was far too accommodating. The fire station where I work is located high on a hill overlooking the town, so I began watching the casino from a distance each day.
I had initially thought that the casino was located in a terrible location, but I was apparently wrong. True, Eureka was hours from any major city, but despite that, a bus full of people arrived every morning and left every evening.
One night I was over at my parent’s house and had dinner with Selene and her kids. I asked her about her experience as a dealer.
“It’s Ok,” she said. “Just a little boring I guess.”
“Boring?” I asked. “I’m surprised you don’t have your hands full.”
“Why’s that?” she asked. “It’s like you said, Eureka’s too small. I never have people playing cards. The casino is almost always completely empty.”
I wasn’t sure what to make of that. If the place was always empty, what happened to the people who I’d seen arriving on buses? “I’ve been keeping an eye on the building,” I said. “A bus full of people typically arrives around 9 AM every day.”
“Really?” she asked, looking confused. “If that’s true, I’ve never seen them.
“I can see it from the fire station,” I said. “If you head out for a smoke break at 9 AM, you’ll probably see them arriving.”
“Interesting,” she said. “I’ll do that. If they’re being processed for their organs or something, I’ll let you know.” She laughed.
“Har har,” I said sarcastically.
The next night she sent me a text calling me over. When I arrived, she was nearly breathless with excitement.
“Orin, You were right,” she said. “A big group of people did arrive, but they didn’t walk into my part of the casino. Instead, they all walked into an elevator at the back of the building. I’m not sure where that goes.” She looked thoughtful. “It was weird. They looked… How can I say it? Desperate? Something about the whole situation was very off. I’m gonna check out the elevator tomorrow.”
I told her to be careful, though, to be honest, I was excited to hear about what she discovered. When I visited my parent’s house the next night, I found her two kids there alone. They told me that Selene had never returned from work.
I called all her friends, then all our neighbors, but no one had seen her since she left for work that morning. Our conversations regarding the casino flooded my mind, then a plan began to form.
Early the next morning I walked across town in my nicest pair of jeans and a button-up shirt. I pushed through the door to the casino and saw that Selene wasn’t lying. The place was all but deserted. Three dozen slot machines crowded the walls surrounding a few tables interspersed throughout the floor of the casino. The only players in the whole building were Bob and Donald, two locals.
I walked up to a nearby table where Bridget, a girl I’d gone to high school with, was shuffling cards. She broke into a grin when she saw me. “Hey Orin, you here for a few rounds of blackjack?”
“I wish,” I said. “No, I’m here to ask about Selene. She never made it home last night.”
Bridget’s expression darkened. “Really? Have you asked around?”
“I already called around. Have you seen her?”
She shook her head. “No, our schedules rarely line up. I’ll be sure to let you know if I--” Her eyes focused on something behind me, and she cut herself off.
I turned around to see the casino’s pit boss watching us both. He was a tall thin man in an impeccably clean black suit. When I turned back towards Bridget, she was looking down at the table and shuffling cards absent-mindedly.
“Well, if you hear anything, let me know,” I said.
She nodded, so I turned around and headed for the pit boss. I stuck out my hand. The temperature of his hand was so hot that I had to pull my hand away after a few seconds.
“Have… have you seen my sister Selene?” I asked. “She hasn’t been seen since her shift here yesterday.”
He smiled. “Sir, this floor is for players. You’re more than welcome to head to the tellers for chips, but barring that I’m afraid I’ll have to ask you to leave.”
I stared at him for a long second before stalking towards the door. When I looked back, he was talking with Bridget.
I checked my watch. 8:55 AM, just as I’d planned. I walked around the back of the building and waited as the morning bus pulled around the building. I waited for the telltale hiss of the opening doors and the sound of people descending before I rounded the corner and joined the crowd. None of them paid any particular attention to me as I walked with them into the casino.
The crowd walked through a side door down a hallway to an elevator. Small groups of people entered the elevator as the rest of us waited for our turn. I shot a glance at the casino patrons, surprised at their diversity. There seemed to be people from all different countries and ethnicities. I heard one speaking Japanese and another speaking what sounded like an African language.
My turn came along with a few other patrons in the elevator. A sickly woman hobbled into the elevator beside me carrying an IV that was still connected to one of her veins. We piled in and rode up to the top.
The elevator rose for a few long seconds. I wasn’t sure what I would find, but I steeled myself for something horrible. The elevator’s speaker let out a TING, then the doors opened.
We all walked out onto what looked like a standard casino. Another few dozen slot machines ringed the walls, but on this floor, they were almost all occupied by customers. I took in the scene, confused at why they’d have a ground floor that was almost completely empty when this place was almost--
Selene was dealing cards at a nearby table.
I jogged over and sat down at an open seat. None of the players around me paid me much attention.
“Selene!” I said. “Are you OK? Did you spend the night here last night?”
Her eyes were glassy and confused. She looked up at me with a dumb expression and didn’t respond to my question.
“Selene?” I asked.
“What’s your bet?” she asked me. “This table is for blackjack players only.”
“I…” I trailed off, looking at the players around me. None of them were betting with chips of any kind. “What’s the minimum bet?” I asked.
“Three years,” she responded.
“Three years then,” I said, not knowing what that referred to.
Selene nodded, then began dealing cards. I shot a look down at my hand. King and a 9. Selene dealt out cards for herself, showing a 9. I stood, then leaned forward again. “Should I call the police? Are you--”
“Congratulations,” she said tonelessly.
An almost impossibly warm hand grabbed my shoulder. I spun to see the pit boss I’d spoken to earlier. He gave an impressed smile. “Orin, was it? I’m impressed, truly. Would you mind if I had a word with you?”
I shot a look back at Selene who was dealing the next round of cards. Then I got to my feet, balling my hands into fists. “What did you do to her?”
The pit boss clasped his hands behind his back. “Nothing more, and nothing less than what I’m going to do to you. That is, offer you the chance to play.”
“What the hell is that supposed to mean?”
The pit boss nodded his head towards a nearby slot machine. A woman in a wheelchair pulled a lever and watched the flashing numbers spin. They exploded in a cacophony of sirens and flashing lights. “WINNER WINNER WINNER!” The machine screeched.
The woman in the wheelchair put her feet on the ground and stood up on a pair of wobbly legs that had clearly never been used before.
“As in any other casino,” the pit boss said, “you must wager for the chance to win.”
“She... won the use of her legs?” I asked, feeling light-headed. “Wait,” I said. “I played blackjack just now. ‘Three years,’ Selene told me. What does ‘three years’ mean?” I asked.
“Three years of life, of course. Did you win?”
My mouth felt dry. “I-- Yes, I won.”
He smiled warmly. “Congratulations. I hope you enjoy them. I can tell you from personal experience that watching the decades pass is a bore. Give it some time and you’ll be back to spend them.”
I watched the pit boss’s face. He couldn’t have been more than a few years older than me, and I was in my early thirties. I looked around at the casino. No one was playing with chips of any kind. “So what?” I asked. “I won years of life. That woman won the use of her legs. What else can a person win here?”
“Oh, almost anything. They can win almost anything you can imagine.”
A cold feeling settled in my stomach. “And what do they wager?”
His eyes flashed with greed. “Almost anything. They can wager almost anything you can possibly imagine. Anything equal in value to the item they want in return.” He nodded towards a nearby roulette table.
A man stood by the table, cradling his hands. “Another finger,” he called out. He only had three fingers remaining on his left hand. As I watched, the ball came to a stop, and another finger disappeared from his left hand.
The pit boss extended his hands. “Feel free to try any of our games. Bet and win whatever you’d like.” He reached out and snatched my hand. A feeling of intense warmth passed up my arm to my chest. “There,” he said. “I’ve even given you some house money to get you started. An extra decade of life, on me.”
I ripped my hand away, staring at him in horror. Then I looked back at Selene. Something clicked in my mind. “You offered her the chance to play. What did she want?” I asked.
“Her husband,” the pit boss said. “Quite the sad story. He died two years ago. She wanted him brought back to her.”
“What did she wager?” I asked.
“She wanted the chance to win a soul, the most valuable object in existence. I’m sure you can imagine what she needed to wager for the chance to win it. What she wagered is unimportant. The important question is: What do you want, Orin?”
I stared at Selene with a flat expression. “I’m sure you can imagine.”
His eyes flashed with greed again. “How wonderful. The casino could always make use of another dealer. Feel free to make your wager at any one of our games; I’ll be eagerly awaiting the results of your night. Oh, and do take advantage of our waitresses. We always supply food and drink for ‘high rollers’.” He walked away.
I spent the next few hours trying to decide which game to play. I was going to be wagering my soul, so I wanted the highest chance possible. Slots and roulette were out. I’d done some reading online about counting cards, so I figured that blackjack gave me the best odds.
I walked up to Selene’s table and sat down. “Bet?” she asked with that same toneless voice. “Three years,” I said.
I spent the next hour or so doing my best to remember how to count cards. I knew that low cards added one to my count and high cards decreased it by one, but the casino used three decks. I had read something about how that was supposed to change my calculation, but I couldn’t quite remember how.
Every time I won a hand, I cursed myself for not putting everything on the line. Every time I lost, I breathed a prayer of thanks that I’d waited. And all the while, I kept track of the count.
I had lost fifteen years of life when the count finally reached +5.
“Bet?” Selene asked.
“I wager my soul so you can be free,” I said.
The table around me fell silent. Selene’s eyes flickered, but she showed no other emotion as she dealt the cards. I watched my first card, punching the air in excitement when I saw a Jack. My excitement turned to ash when my second card was a four. Fourteen.
I looked at her hand. One card was facedown, but the faceup card was a King. I swore loudly, staring down at my hands.
“Hit?” she asked. The entire table was silently watching me.
“Hit,” I said, not looking down. The table erupted in cheers. I looked down to see a 7 atop my two other cards. 21. Blackjack.
I looked at Selene who flipped over her facedown card to reveal a 9. 19. I won.
The glassy look left her eyes immediately. She looked around in surprise, then her eyes locked on mine. “Orin?” she asked, then almost immediately began to cry. The entire casino broke out in cheers.
I grabbed her hand and headed for the elevator. The doors had begun to close when the pit boss reached out with a hand to stop them.
“Congratulations,” he said, beaming. He seemed to be honestly excited.
“Shouldn’t you be upset?” I asked.
“Not at all. Casinos love it when we have big winners. It inspires the other players to make larger bets. I imagine I’ll gain two or three dealers before the night is through from your performance.”
“Great,” I said flatly. “Now let us go.”
“Not yet,” he said. “You didn’t just win, Orin. You got a blackjack. And blackjack pays out 1.5 times your bet. You won your sister’s soul and more.”
I stared, not sure what to say. “What are you saying? I won half a soul extra?”
The pit boss grinned wildly. “Just remember what I said. You’ll find living for decades and decades to be a boring experience. After a few centuries, you’ll be back to gamble that half a soul away. Congratulations!”
He removed his hand, and the elevator doors slammed shut.
I helped Selene back to her house. Her children were relieved. I watched them cry, then moved into the kitchen to start making dinner.
It’s been a few days since that experience. The casino is still out there, and buses full of people still arrive. I… I cut my hand pretty bad a few days later. When I checked it an hour later, it had already healed, no scar or anything. I’m not sure exactly what I won at that casino, but there’s no way I’m ever going back.
X
submitted by Worchester_St to nosleep [link] [comments]

Do NOT buy Quantumscape (QS) unless you just want to gamble with -EV

Ok so this post mirrors my post from almost 6 months ago when I posted about Hertz the day it reached its top of 6+ dollars after already announcing bankruptcy (it went from like 50 cents to 6+ dollars). You can see my submitted post history for that. Since this is an wallstreetbets post, I'll talk about something that rarely anyone ever talks about but impacts options pricing - the borrow rate - so that it's an informative post too even if you aren't interested in QS.
For the record I'm posting this as QS is 105 AH 12/21 so I can look back in 3-6 months. First, I'm not short QS so I don't want to hear some comment below saying you are just desperate because you are taking a huge loss. I'm posting this as a warning/advice just like when I posted about Hertz because at this point it's actually extremely negative expected value (EV) to go long QS through call options/shares.
First the IV is ridiculously high. There could be many situations that play out in which you can buy calls, it goes up 10%, and you will end up down. Second, one of the reasons for why anyone would buy QS is to collect the borrow rate, which is insane. However, most brokers don't give the customer this borrow or if they do, don't give the full borrow. For RH, you get none of this borrow, so this alone makes this very -EV at these price points. Finally, the most obvious reason, it's quite clear this stock is overvalued as it won't even have any revenue or sales for a few years. It's similar to NKLA actually (look at that chart when it briefly hit 90 earlier this year).
The stock is undergoing a short squeeze with high borrow rates, which is causing this spike, but historically these stop pretty fast and when it pulls back, all those calls/shares will lose value. There's like plenty of examples of this just this year, and the goal is obviously not to buy at the top. The main issue is also when it pulls back, it doesn't usually EVER bounce back up. See the NKLA bagholders at 90, HTZ bagholders at 6, KODK bagholders at 55, etc.
In the case you just wanted to just gamble, it's actually not a bad stock to purely gamble. However, there are plenty of better gambles out there that should return a higher expected return. Second, gambling is fine but we all know what happens when you play roulette in the long run. Sure you can hit that 23 number you bet on, but the more you push it, the quicker all of that goes away. So that's why this is a fair warning. You can gamble and you might win even for a short time period, but most will be left holding the bag. And when they hold the bag, they hold it all the way down.
I also wouldn't outright short this right now unless you want to sell a long dated call spread/naked OTM long-dated call. As I mentioned, the IV and borrow are extremely high, so a short term long puts strategy will have an extremely tough time printing. Furthermore, it's somewhat hard to short the stock with this high borrow, and that borrow is embedded in puts too. However, longer term, it's clearly a short at these levels, but you have to do it in some more unique ways as I mentioned above.
Finally, if QS spikes up from this 105 AH number, I guarantee you there will be some idiots who are gonna be posting here in the comments section about how they were right/I was wrong (see the HTZ comments). I'm ok with that. That means I didn't call the top exactly perfectly, but as I said, you can revisit this post in 3-6 months. Ironically on HTZ, the day after I posted, it did actually go up that day (to 6+), got a lot of shit comments, and I'm sure 100% of those guys lost money since it has never even seen anywhere close to that price ever again as the next day was the top. So same situation here. Just a fair warning. If anything, at least you learned how borrow rates affect options pricing and short positions.
submitted by infinitelimits00 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

A History of Glossier: Holiday Launches

Hi guys! This is a history of all of Glossier’s limited edition holiday launches with a little bit of background on how Glossier came to be. I might make a part two focused on their core launches and what put Glossier on the map or something that focuses on their various popups if you’d be interested in hearing about that! Also, most of my information in this post came from their blog Into the Gloss as well as various style magazine articles and I’ll have those sources linked throughout if you’d like to see more.

2014

In October of 2014, Glossier was born as an extension of Weiss’s incredibly popular blog, Into the Gloss. With their core four products - Skin Tint, Soothing Face Mist, Balm Dot Com, and Priming Moisturizer - Glossier’s initial launch was a massive success. This launch was called the Summer Edition Phase 1 Set, with plans for them to launch four new products every six weeks. Fun fact: Emily Weiss herself actually hand delivered many of the first orders on launch day!
That holiday season, the first limited edition set was released on December second: a “liquid foil” eyeliner duo for $28. If you click the link, you can see just how much Glossier’s aesthetic has evolved over the years. The two promotional photos for the liners were edgier and more chaotic, a far cry from the generally ethereal and emotionless photos used today.
Released in the shades silver and gold, the liquid liners were housed in black tapered plastic bottles. In the words of Weiss, she created this product because she was “so over the holiday red lip.” You can see the silver liner in action here from Digital Manager Rebecca Zhou’s holiday party look. Amusingly enough, Glossier’s tweet about their liners amassed exactly one like (everyone should hype them up right now - I bet they’d be so confused).

2015

For their 2015 holiday launch, Glossier had a set of six single use masks in each of their current mask formulas. The current Glossier calligraphy used in this year’s holiday launch was actually made in 2015 to house this set, called the Mask Duo Set. With a plush terry cloth headband tucked in every box, this retailed for $38 and is one of their less known releases. As a side note, if anyone has anything from this set please please please PM me - I want this so badly!!

2016

In 2016, Glossier released their iconic and now highly coveted Black Tie Set. Initially only sold as a set for $50, they later sold each item separately on December 6th. Housed in minimalistic white packaging with their iconic G embossed on the front and the remark “we’re all snowflakes”, the set was wrapped in a black satin bow and contained, in their own words,
The No. 1 Eyeliner in Graphite, a soft black that's universally flattering and easy to use for a flick or a smoky eye, conveniently with a smudging sponge at the end of the pencil ($16)
Haloscope in special-edition Moonstone, an opalescent glaze that's cooler-toned with flecks of pink and blue—glide on to the half-halo from the cheekbones to the brow bone, plus a little on the bridge of the nose and the Cupid's bow ($22)
#glossierpink nail polish ($12)
A lipgloss for a glassy (never gloppy), long-lasting finish ($14)
Here is a link to view the set on the site through the Wayback Machine.

2017

To my knowledge, Glossier didn’t release any special holiday launches in 2017 perhaps with the exception of the Phase 3 Set, which introduced the brand to the Body Hero line in September as well as Glossier You in October, though those weren’t for the holidays in particular.
However, they did release a number of unique sets for the holidays. They came out with the Cloud Paint Quad for $55, Balm Dot Com Trio for $23, Glossier Phase 1 Set for $40, and the Glossier Phase 2 Set for $40 as well. The Phase 1 Set, now known as The 3-Step Skincare Routine, included a full size Milky Jelly Cleanser, Balm Dot Com, and Priming Moisturizer. The Phase 2 Set included a Boy Brow, Gen G lipstick, and Stretch Concealer. Each set was packaged in a translucent pink sleeve with their brand name embossed on the front.

2018

2018 was the year of the infamous Glossier Mirror. The round mirror with a “You Look Good” decal on the bottom was irresistible for many Glossier fans and remains a cult favorite even today. Also [replacing the Phase 2 Set] permanently was the Makeup Set, which is still on the site, and features a Lash Slick, Cloud Paint, and Boy Brow. Also, here are some holiday campaign photos I found!
A sweet, candy colored, fruit themed campaign
Minimalistic florals and light pastels

2019

We probably all remember 2019, but last year, Glossier released the Skincare Edit for the first time, which featured miniatures of their Futuredew, Milky Jelly Cleanser, Rose BDC, Original BDC, Priming Moisturizer Rich, Super Bounce Serum, and headband for $50. With sustainable paper packaging and secured with their signature pink band, the set was a success. Buyers could also receive a BDC Scarf for free with a $60 purchase or buy it alone for $15. Glossier also launched two new sets: The Lipgloss Trio for $44, which remains on the site, and the Colorslide Trio for $47, which is similar to the Colorslide Duo still available.

2020

This year, Glossier has launched their BDC Roulette for $30, which gives the buyer three balms at random in cute gold packaging, the Limited Edition Gold Kit for $75, which features a gold plated G necklace in a pink pouch and a new gold lip gloss in a pink box embossed with the brand embossed in gold cursive, their signature Lip Gloss in Gold, a gloss with gold flecks, and relaunched the Skincare Edit for $50. They also released two pieces of GlossiWear merchandise. They created the bright red G Pal sweater for $40 and its counterpart, the G Pal Scarf for $25. Interestingly, six years ago, Into The Gloss wrote an article about the best gold lip glosses, which emphasized that they loved it because you could see your lips with just a hint of gold sparkle, and that’s exactly what their gloss does.

Some Interesting Things

Raymond Meier has shot a significant number of promotional photos for Glossier. It’s really cool to see which photos were used and which weren’t. Overall, his photography style is much grungier and chaotic than Glossier’s aesthetic but I do think I prefer his eclectic and evocative style, especially with the smeared Gen G’s. He also shot the photo that’s on the BDC scarf. Thoughts?
Another interesting designer is Leslie David, who has graphic, punchy designs from Glossier’s sticker sheets
I really enjoyed looking at Looks Studios take on Glossier Play, especially the video they featured. The website honestly looks like a child made it but the looks are absolutely stunning. I really wish Glossier had used more of their Euphoria-like photos considering Play was a sub launch and could be taken in a different design direction than the more minimalistic Glossier aesthetic.

My thoughts

As Glossier has grown, their holiday launches have seemingly gone from more thoughtful and curated to a ruthless cash grab, as this new gold necklace has shown. Though I don’t think any of their limited edition product launches were particularly noteworthy and seemed like kitsch at best, I feel the prices generally reflected that they were more for the Glossier novelty than anything else. As the years has gone on and Glossier’s cult-like following became more and more apparent, I think Weiss did what Weiss has always done best, which is follow the media. Weiss is an undoubted social media marketing ingenue and seeing a $5 Miami keychain valued at $80 or free postcards and stickers selling anywhere from $10-$20, how could she not feed into it? I don’t blame Glossier at all for capitalizing on their blind popularity, though it is disappointing. Regardless, I’m excited to see what they put out next and how the brand will continue to grow in the years to come. I have the utmost respect for Weiss and how she’s been able to grow the empire she has today.
This was so fun to write and if you guys want to see more about Glossier’s history, please let me know! If I missed anything, please tell me so I can fix it! It was a little hard to find definitive launches at times and I’m unsure if I got everything right. Also, I geeked out a little bit with my boyfriend about the launch of Glossier because they used primarily venture capital funding and my boyfriend’s private equity firm actually was going to work with one of the firms that funded Glossier. Thanks so much for reading!
submitted by syllocue to glossier [link] [comments]

Trading Subscriptions or other Paid Services

I used to be a Financial Advisor for a very brief period almost 10 years ago for Peter Schiff. At the time I was in my early 20s and liked a lot of what he said. He frustrates me a lot more now and fails to adapt accordingly. Anyhow, I now run junkiebonds.com. Mostly a website researching US macro and discussing the worst institution ever created: The Federal Reserve.
Here’s some quick advice for beginners and even further on up I’m sure.
I've seen an unbelievable amount of these advertisements in the last few weeks. I just came across a comment in this room about just beginning and who to trust for paid services.
This may seem counterintuitive but if you're just beginning in the stock market DO NOT buy anything for education or trading. All the material you need is available for free online. Investopedia and YouTube have everything.
If you're just beginning you need to educate yourself and make small purchases. Education is the easiest part of trading in the stock market. The hard part is educating yourself about yourself. I've seen a few beginners that trade frequently and have done very well - in all likelihood they'll eventually lose all of their gains(+95% chance at bare minimum).
Stay away from paid services that claim they can help you trade. 99% are bullshit. Only experienced individuals should use these services because those individuals most likely know the few real people or firms that actually provide value. Experienced traders use these services for insight, education, and to help their process. Beginners have other obstacles to deal with first before these would properly benefit them.
Fuck Tim Sykes, those raging bull fucks, and others. They're full of shit. They are just a salesman using flashy marketing. It doesn't mean they haven't ever done well themselves - I think Tim Sykes actually did - but they realize selling hope, making millions, along with a little education is not just more profitable but it also eliminates risk.
In my opinion, I believe I could start a very “successful” subscription service. It’s aggravating seeing these guys because fooling beginners is almost like shooting fish in a barrel. But I’m not going to start a business where 95% of profits are based off of fooling others with slick marketing.
If anybody comes across a service you may be interested in but aren’t sure of its validity, feel free to send it to me and I’ll provide my two cents.
I’m going to explain trading by summarizing how I go about it. I’m not a day trader - I’m not making multiple trades a day and I recommend you do not do that either unless you want to lose money.
Before joining Euro Pacific Capital I would make a few trades a day. 50% of my portfolio was for long term investments 1+ years and the other for my speculation. I was fortunate enough to begin these investments at end of 2008 and early 2009. The long term side would do well and my speculations did alright too. The problem was I had big goals and desires for more wealth even though I had almost doubled the 12500 in less than a year. This led me to abandon stock speculating/trading because gains were too small and slow. However, stock options provided the leverage needed and I thought I had a trading process that would work.
Btw... “back in those days” I was paying 5.99 to buy and then 5.99 again to sell every trade! In 2010 my commissions were well above 2gs.
Reflecting on it now my process was abysmal and I’m surprised I was able to hold up for time I did. I was making reckless trades but one in particular really boosted my confidence. I bought far OTM calls on VXX(volatility) that expired in a few days. It was only a 100 dollars or so.
The market got slaughtered the next day. My calls were up over 4000%. I was up 4,950 dollars at 1205pm and then 4,150 a few minutes later. I believe I exited with a return of just over 4,300% which was a close figure to the actual dollars I made.
Here’s one of the most important points I’ll make: a PROFITABLE trade does not make it a GOOD trade by any means. That’s still one of the largest returns I’ve ever had and certainly the quickest but it was foolish.
It’s like going up to the roulette table and placing money on any number. The outcome of the spin does not change the fact this is a bad decision. Do not fool yourself by thinking your gains are all good decisions or investments. The only way you can have a good bet playing roulette is if you have knowledge or insight which puts the odds in your favor. And the only way you can do that is through some illegal con I believe. However, the market is not roulette. It can be. It can be worse if you make it that way.
Moving on... A few months after the big gain I had steadily lost money and I was getting a bit frustrated ——-
understanding how your emotions impact your thought processes and decision making is fundamental. There’s no manual for this part because every tradeperson is different. Happiness can and will influence your decisions. For some people it may cause them to be less disciplined or open to taking a risk and for others it will do the opposite. Traders create a process to eliminate the effects emotions can have - a simple example is to set a stop loss on a trade so you aren’t trying to guess when or if should prevent further losses or risk it. It’s important for beginners to do this. Do not enter trades where the losses cause worry and stress and you have no idea whether or not to sell. I don’t always have pre determined actions when I trade these days but I’ve also been doing this for over a decade and there are trades where it’s not as important or just not a good strategy. Again, if you’re a beginner please do not do this.
Back to my frustration... I entered an abnormally large call option order attempting to make up some losses - another stupid and beginner mistake. Unfortunately, the next day my parents needed help moving to Florida from Iowa. I had a 5g option that expired in 4 days and I wasn’t at my computer so I put in an order to (stop)sell if it so happens to fall quite a bit. This stock was amazon and it just so happens a negative headline came out right before opening bell. I had no idea bc I was still sleeping and dealing with moving.
The option price was around 5.20 and I had 10. My stop was at 4.
At 1030am we were going out for lunch and I went to check my position.
I was down 4,700 dollars.... because I put a LIMIT at 3.85.
You see, On this trade I went through ETRADE for whatever reason and I knew these sleezy guys sell their order flow - oh, btw Robinhood also sells their stock option orders but it’s really only important for a very small% of ppl - basically ETRADE profits from selling orders to other brokers who then complete your trade. So if these guys can see a price quickly drop and pop back up they’ll execute your order at worst price and then sell it for a profit a second later. Free money.
I was trying to limit any excessive scalping by putting a limit but amazon dropped quickly so E*TRADE of course did not get my order executed. If they were an honest and customer first company the order would’ve been executed and I wouldn’t have lost thousands of dollars. However, ultimately it is my fault and once again a stupid trade.
Trading is different from investing. Being an advisor certainly doesn’t make you a good trader. Advisors are typically there to plan long term investments and get to know their client so they’re able to adjust the risk in their portfolio accordingly.
A year or so after amazon I was working for Peter Schiff. He had really exploded in popularity because his predictions about the housing bubble all came to fruition. As an advisor you can’t trade. I was only there for a year because my mother was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer and I left to be with her. I had to save funds and for a few years after didn't trade either.
These days I'm back trading but its much different. I enjoy macro research and writing so i use this to my advantage. In 2020, I made around 40 trades total. Some of these are still open. Most of my trades are options and last a few weeks to months but two open positions don't expire until Jan 2022. Last year I made a return of 135%. I made a few huge mistakes and one out of laziness. Earlier in the year I was up 200%. I believe my process is solid but also needs improvement.
I try to limit my trades and find areas I'm most confident in. I also recommend you do not make hasty decisions. MISSING TRADES can be hard but it's a much better result. 135% really isn't that great of a gain considering how well the market did and the style of my trading. I missed many trades I was really confident in and thought were easy bc I have a strategy that may require 100% of my proceeds into Few positions. It sucks knowing I should've and could've easily had a 400/500% year if I chose to be aggressive. But I stick to my game plan because I'm confident later this year or next my returns will be multiple 1000s of percent. Maybe I'm wrong. We will see. I do best when Im unbelievably confident in an outcome and yet able to remain patient. I find I can do better or much worse if I change these.
My friend that's a girl did better than me because she bought her first and only stock this year which was Tesla. Does it suck underperforming your beginner girl friend having been in this trade for 10 years?
Absolutely.
But all of that noise must be drowned out lol. Everybody has to find their own way and what works best for them. I don't use reddit too often but for some reason I received an invitation to this board and joined tonight. I figured I'd share my thoughts and story and I hope this helped. I didn't proofread this.
My website is junkiebonds.com and you can find me on @Twitter at @junkiebonds - I started both in 2020 but am just really beginning to take off.
I'm always willing to help anybody with questions. Thanks for reading
submitted by 9Basel9 to MoonGangCapital [link] [comments]

[OC] The Overly-Long and Probably-Wrong list of the Top Draft Prospects

As a basketball fan, it's always fun to speculate on the NBA Draft prospects. That said, I'd stress the speculate part of that statement. As an outsider with no real access to these players, it's hard to be arrogant and steadfast in our opinions. We're working with about 10% as much information as actual NBA teams. If you feel confident in your analysis based on some highlight tapes of James Wiseman dunking on South Carolina State or LaMelo Ball jacking up shots in the Australian League, god bless you. And if you want to read my amateur analysis, god bless you too. But before you do, remember to check your sodium levels and take these picks with a grain of salt.
BEST PROSPECTS in the 2019-20 NBA DRAFT
(1) SG Anthony Edwards, Georgia
Based on pure stats, Anthony Edwards would be one of the least impressive # 1 picks of all time. We're talking about a player who just averaged 19-5-3 on bad shooting splits (40-29-77) on a bad Georgia team. In fact, the Bulldogs didn't even crack .500 (finishing 16-16). All things considered, this isn't the resume of a top overall pick. It's like a kid with a 2.9 GPA applying to Harvard Law.
Still, the "eye test" helps Edwards' case in the same way it helped proud Harvard alum Elle Woods. Edwards has a powerful frame (strong and long with a 6'9" wingspan) and a scorer's mentality. He's going to be a handful for NBA wings to contend with, especially when he's going downhill. And while he hasn't shown to be a knockdown shooter, his form looks better than the results suggest. I'd project that he can become an average (35-36%) three-point shooter in time.
It may be unfair to label Edwards with the "best case scenario" comparison -- Dwyane Wade, for example -- but it may be just as unfair to liken him to "worst case scenario" comps like Dion Waiters as well. One of the reasons that Waiters is such an inefficient scorer in the NBA is that he's allergic to the free-throw line; he averages 3.1 FTA per 36 minutes. Edwards didn't live at the FT line, but he did get there 5.3 times per game. With more encouragement from an analytical front office or coaching staff, Edwards has the potential to get to the line 7-8 times a game and raise his ceiling in terms of efficiency.
The key for Edwards' career is going to be his work ethic and basketball character. As a prospect, he reminds me of Donovan Mitchell; in fact, he's ahead of where Mitchell was at the same age. That said, Mitchell is a natural leader who made a concerted effort to improve his body and his overall game. If Edwards can do the same, he has true All-Star potential. If he walks into the building thinking he's already a superstar, then he may never become one.
best fits
Anthony Edwards has some bust potential, but he also has true star potential. Given that, it'd be great to see him go to a team that's willing to feature him. Chances are he won't last this long, but he'd be a great fit for Charlotte (#3). The Hornets desperately need a signature star, and Edwards has the chance to be a 20 PPG scorer within a year or two.
worst fits
If Edwards falls in the draft, he may end up clashing with the talent on the teams in the 4-5 range. Chicago (#4) already has a scoring guard in Zach LaVine. Meanwhile, Cleveland (#5) has already doubled up on scoring guards with Collin Sexton and Darius Garland. Adding a third would be a potential headache, both offensively and defensively.
(2) C James Wiseman, Memphis
A true center? Gross! What is this, 1970?
Traditional big men tend to get treated that way these days. In some ways, they've become the "running backs" of the NBA. They once ruled the draft, but now they have to scrape and claw to climb into the top 5.
Still, let's no go overboard here. Even if centers aren't as valuable as they used to be, there's still some value here. Some of the best centers in the game (Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert, Joel Embiid, etc) have helped make their teams staples in the playoffs. Wiseman can potentially impact a team in the same way, especially on the defensive end. He can get beat on switches now and then, but he's about as agile as you can expect out of a kid who's 7'1" with a 7'6" wingspan. Offensively, he has an improving face-up game in addition to being a devastating lob threat.
Another reason that I'm comfortable with Wiseman in the top 3 is because he appears to be a smart kid with the will to improve his game. He intends to keep stretching out his range towards three point territory. Even if he can be a passable three-point shooter (in the 33% range), that should help make him a consistent 18-12 player and a fringe All-Star. And if not, then he'll still be a viable starting center.
best fits
We mentioned Charlotte (#3) as a great fit for Anthony Edwards, and I'd say the same for Wiseman here. His game complements the more dynamic P.J. Washington well; between the two of them, they'd have the 4-5 spot locked up for years. While Wiseman's best chance to be a star may come in Charlotte, we don't know if he truly has that type of aggressive upside. The more likely scenario is him being a pretty good starting center with an emphasis on defense. In that case, he makes some sense in Golden State (#2) and Atlanta (#6).
worst fits
Apparently James Wiseman doesn't want to go to Minnesota (#1), which makes sense given the presence of Karl-Anthony Towns. If he slips, Chicago (#4) may also be an odd fit. Wiseman is a better prospect than Wendell Carter Jr., but they're not terribly dissimilar. The new Bulls administration didn't select Carter, but it still feels too early to give up on a recent # 7 pick.
(3) PF/C Onyeka Okongwu, USC (HIGHER than most expert rankings)
Another big man? I may be showing my age here.
Still, I'm going to stick to my guns and suggest Onyeka Okongwu is a top 3 prospect in the class for some of the same reasons we ranked James Wiseman so highly. In fact, Okongwu is arguably an even better defensive prospect than Wiseman. While he doesn't have the same size (6'9" with a 7'1" wingspan), he's more switchable. He projects as a prowling, shot-blocking panther, not dissimilar to Bam Adebayo on Miami. Offensively, he flashes some solid skill here and there, although it's unlikely he'd get to Adebayo's level as a playmaker.
Another aspect that should help Okongwu is his selflessness. In high school, he played for Chino Hills alongside stars Lonzo and LaMelo Ball. While there, he blended in and did the dirty work for the LaVar Traveling Circus. It's likely that Okongwu will play a similar role in the NBA, complementing a star perimeter player.
While Okongwu may not have All-Star upside, I don't see much downside here. I'd be surprised if he's not a long-time starter at the center position (with the potential to play some PF if his shooting range improves.)
best fits
The most natural fits for Onyeka Okongwu mirror the best fits for James Wiseman. There’s a chance he may slip further than Wiseman too. Washington (#9) should be salivating if that’s the case.
worst fits
As a low-usage player, there aren't a lot of terrible fits for Okongwu on the board. However, Detroit (#7) already has Blake Griffin on a long-term deal and may re-sign Christian Wood as well. Given that, there wouldn't be much room for Okongwu barring a Griffin trade.
(4) PG LaMelo Ball, U.S./Australia. (LOWER than most expect rankings)
Every draft pick is an inherent gamble, but there's a difference between gambling in blackjack and gambling in Roulette. To me, LaMelo Ball is more of the latter.
No doubt, there's a chance that you may get lucky and "win big" with LaMelo Ball. He has great height for the position at 6'6"/6'7", and he makes some exceptional passes that illustrate a rare court vision. ESPN's Draft Express team ranks him as the # 1 prospect overall, and I take that seriously. Those guys were way ahead of the curve on calling Luka Doncic a transcendent talent at a time when most others were still skeptical.
At the same time, I'd say there is a sizable downside here as well. In fact, I'd estimate that there's a greater than 50/50 chance that Ball is a "bust" based on his current draft status.
LaMelo Ball put up good raw numbers this past season in the NBL -- 17.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, 6.8 assists -- but he was in a situation specifically designed for him to put up good numbers. The efficiency tells a different story, as his shooting splits (38-25-72) look worrisome. Yes, height helps on defense, but it doesn't matter much if you're not locked in on that end. And yes, highlight-reel passes and super-deep threes are fun to watch, but they're not a path to consistency on offense. As Ball makes the jump to the NBA, he may smack hard into a wall and crash into the water like was on Wipeout. There's a chance he'll be among the worst players (from an advanced stats perspective) as a rookie.
So what? We expect most rookies to struggle, right? That's true, but I'd be nervous about how LaMelo Ball and his camp would respond to those initial struggles. Again, I've never met the kid and have no real basis for this, but media interviews make him seem a little immature. That's totally understandable for a 19 year old, but it's not ideal for a 19 year old who's about to get handed the keys to an NBA franchise. If he struggles out of the gates, will he start to lose confidence? Will LaVar Ball start to make waves? Will the media gleefully tear him to shreds? No clue. And if I'm picking in the top 3, I'd prefer to have more confidence than question marks.
best fits
If we treat LaMelo Ball as a developmental project, then I'd prefer he land with a team like Chicago (#4). New coach Billy Donovan is a former PG himself, and spent decades working with young kids at the college level. If they slow play Ball's development, we may see the best of him down the road. Detroit (#7) also makes sense. Coach Dwane Casey has a pretty good reputation in player development himself, and he has a solid bridge PG in Derrick Rose to help buy Ball some time.
worst fits
Cleveland (#5) is an obviously wonky fit based on the current roster. I'd also assert that Charlotte (#3) is a poor fit as well. While the team desperately needs a signature star, they don't have the type of supporting cast that would be conducive to him right now. And if he struggles as a rookie, then coach James Borrego and the whole front office may be cleaned out. If that happens, a new administration would be inheriting a franchise player that they didn't pick in the first place.
(5) SF/PF Deni Avdija, Israel
The NBA tends to be reactionary when it comes to the draft, which can be particularly impactful for international prospects. Their stock tends to swing up and down more violently than a ride at Action Park. There was a ton of skepticism about Euros when Dirk Nowitzki came along. When he hit, the NBA got so excited they drafted Darko Milicic at # 2. Eventually that excitement wore off as the busts started to pile up again. But when Latvian Kristaps Porzingis looked like the real deal, it helped reverse that narrative and helped Dragan Bender go # 4 the following year.
In terms of that up-and-down timing, Deni Avdija stands to benefit. He's coming into the NBA on the heels of an incredible sophomore campaign from Luka Doncic. No one thinks that Avdija can be a superstar like Doncic, but teams aren't as wary of international wings (specifically white wings) these days. Avdija should go somewhere in the top 10 if not the top 5.
In my mind, that's justified. He's 6'9", which should allow him to play either the SF or PF positions. He hasn't shown to be an excellent shooter yet, but he should eventually be solid there. He's better suited as a playmaker and passer, and he can also use his size and skill to convert on slashes around the rim. I've seen some comparisons to Lamar Odom before, although that may be optimistic. More likely, he'll be a 4th or 5th starter. His experience as a pro should help toward that end, as he's used to working hard and fitting in on a team of vets.
best fits
If you project Deni Avdija to just "fit in" and be a solid starter, then he'd make sense on a team like Golden State (#2). He could effectively play the role of Harrison Barnes or old Andre Iguodala for them. If the intention is to make him more of a featured player, then the Knicks (#8) would be interesting. In that market, he has real star potential.
worst fits
I don't love the fit for Avdija in Charlotte (#3), where he may duplicate some of P.J. Washington's talents. Atlanta (#6) and Phoenix (#10) have also invested in young SF-PFs recently, so Avdija may find himself scraping for time there.
(6) SG/SF Devin Vassell, Florida State (HIGHER than most expert rankings)
Every single NBA team needs 3+D wings. They thirst for them like a dying man in the desert. And then, when a legitimate 3+D wing comes along, they often ignore them in favor of splashier players at other positions.
Part of the issue is that low-usage 3+D wings aren't going to put up monster stats. That's certainly true of Devin Vassell, who averaged a modest 12.7 points this past year. Still, you have to go deeper than the pure numbers alone and consider the context. Florida State had a stacked and balanced team. In fact, Vassell's 12.7 PPG was the highest on the roster (and came in only 28.8 minutes.) There's more in the tank here than we've seen so far. He can hit the three (42% and 42% from deep in his two years), and he shows a good feel for the game (2:1 assist/turnover ratio.)
Vassell shows even more potential on the defensive end. He's currently listed at 6'7" with a 6'10" wingspan, but he looks even longer than that to my eye. He's tenacious and disruptive (1.4 steals, 1.0 blocks) without being out of control. Presumably, he should be a good defender at either the SG or SF spot.
In a sense, Vassell's the prototype for a 3+D wing. To be fair, I don't anticipate him being a great shooter at the next level. His FT% was iffy, and he's apparently been tweaking his shot during the draft process. Still, if he can be a viable shooting threat in the way that Josh Richardson is (an inconsistent shooter who averages around 36%), then he should be a solid starter for an NBA team. That may not sound like something worthy of a top 5 pick, but the high "floor" helps him in this case. He also appears to have a strong character and work ethic, making him feel like an even safer bet.
best fits
Devin Vassell's skill set would fit on virtually any NBA roster -- but his perceived lack of upside may keep him from going as high as my personal ranking. If he does, then Cleveland (#5) would be a nice fit given their lack of big wings and their lack of defense. Defensive-challenged Washington (#9) would also make sense; Vassell tends to be listed as a SG but he should have enough size to play the SF for them.
worst fits
You can never have too many 3+D wings, but it may be a duplication to put Devin Vassell on the same team with Mikal Bridges in Phoenix (#10).
(7) PG Tyrese Haliburton, Iowa State
One of the reasons I'd have to be specific about a fit with a player like LaMelo Ball is that he needs the ball in his hands to maximize his potential. That's true for most lead guards.
Given that, it's a nice change of pace to see a prospect like Tyrese Haliburton come along. He's listed as a PG and he can perform those duties. This past season, he averaged 15.2 points and 6.5 assists per game. But he ALSO can operate as an off-the-ball player. As a freshman, he did exactly that, effectively working as a wing player and a glue guy on offense. His three-point shot looks wonky, but he converted 43% as a freshman and 42% as a sophomore. If that translates, he can be an effective spacer as well.
Haliburton's versatility also extends to the defensive end. He's 6'5" with an incredible 7'0" wingspan, allowing him to guard either PG or SGs. Like Devin Vassell, he also puts those tools to good use. Either one is an incredible athlete, but they're disruptive and locked in on that end. I'd expect Haliburton to be one of the better guard defenders in the NBA.
All in all, you may ask: why isn't this guy ranked HIGHER? The skill set would justify that. At the end of the day I don't see elite upside here (maybe George Hill?) because he may have some trouble getting his shot off in a halfcourt offense. Still, he's one of the safer prospects overall and a kid that you'd feel good betting on.
best fits
The New York Knicks (#8) may bring in a big-name guard like Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook, but if they stick with the rebuild then Tyrese Haliburton makes loads of sense. He can share playmaking duties with R.J. Barrett, and he can help Tom Thibodeau establish a defensive culture. He'd also make sense for Detroit (#7) and even Atlanta (#6). While the Hawks have Trae Young locked in at PG, Haliburton can play enough SG to justify 30+ overall minutes.
worst fits
Obviously any team that doesn't have room for a PG OR SG would be a problem here. Cleveland (#5) and Washington (#9) are the clearest examples of that. While Haliburton could theoretically guard some SFs, it's not the best use of his talent.
(8) PG Killian Hayes, France
If NBA centers are like NFL running backs, then point guards / lead playmakers may be like quarterbacks. There's positive and negatives to that comparison. Obviously, a good lead guard can immediately boost your team. At the same time, you don't really need more than one. And if you're not "the guy," then your impact is going to be limited.
Given that, there's a high bar to being a starting PG in the NBA. You have to be really, really friggin' good. According to many experts, Killian Hayes is exactly that. Physically he's what you want in the position, with a 6'5" frame. He averaged 16.8 points and 7.8 assists per 36 playing in Germany this year for a team that had a few former pros like Zoran Dragic. The Ringer has him # 1 overall.
Personally, I haven't completely bought into that hype yet. I can't claim to have season tickets to Ratiopharm Ulm, but when I watch highlights I don't really see ELITE traits here. He's not incredibly explosive, he's not a great shooter, he's over-reliant on his left hand. I have no doubt that he has the upside to be a good starter, but I don't think we've seen enough (or at least, I haven't) to make me confident in that projection.
best fits
Chicago (#4) and Detroit (#7) appear to be the most obvious fits for a potential star guard like Killian Hayes. And while the Knicks may have been underwhelmed by a French PG before, he would make sense for them at #8 as well.
worst fits
Teams with lead guards locked in -- Golden State (#2), Cleveland (#5), for example -- would be obviously problematic fits for Hayes. While he has the size to play some shooting guard defensively, he has a ways to go before he's a sharpshooting spacer.
(9) SG/SF Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt (HIGHER than most expert rankings)
Back when I was single, I dated a girl who presumably viewed me as a "developmental prospect." She'd always tell me how cool I'd look if I got some new jeans. How hot I'd be if I lost some weight. After a while, reality set in. It ain't happening, honey. What you see is what you get. The whole transformation idea may have worked with Chris Pratt, but it's not going to work with schlubby ol' Zandrick Ellison.
Sometimes it feels like NBA teams view prospects in the same delusional way. Josh Jackson can be a superstar -- if he develops his shot! Isaac Okoro can be a great pick -- if he becomes a great shooter! IF IF IF. We tend to forget that it's not that easy for a leopard to change his spots or for a player to suddenly develop a shooting stroke. It may have worked with Kawhi Leonard, but it's not working with most players.
Given that, we should value players who already have developed that skill. Aaron Nesmith is one of the best shooters in the draft -- right here, right now. He shot 52% from three and 83% from the line this past season. There's a sample size issue there (he only played 14 games prior to injury), but his shooting form looks fluid and suggests that he should be a legitimate 38-40% shooter from deep. While Nesmith isn't a great athlete or defender, his 7'0" wingspan should help him hang at either the SG or SF spots. All in all, we're talking about a player who should be a starter, or at the very least a high-level rotational player.
best fits
Aaron Nesmith isn't going to put a team on his back, but he can help carry the load offensively given his shooting ability. That should make him a good fit for a team like New Orleans (#13) as they look to replace J.J. Redick down the road. He'd also be an excellent fit with Orlando (#16) as they eye more shooters/scorers.
worst fits
It's hard to find a bad fit for a good shooting wing, but there are a few teams that may not have starting positions available. Phoenix (#10) already has Devin Booker and a few solid young SFs. Sacramento (#12) already has Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic (presuming they retain them.)
(10) PG/SG R.J. Hampton, U.S/N.Z. (HIGHER than most expert rankings)
After that rant about delusions of grandeur with development prospects, let me try and talk you into a raw developmental prospect.
Like LaMelo Ball, R.J. Hampton went to play in the NBL during his gap year after high school. They were both top 10 prospects going in, but their stocks diverged from there. LaMelo Ball put up big numbers and locked himself into top 3 status. Hampton didn't showcase much (8.8 points per game on 41-30-68 shooting splits) and may drop out of the lottery altogether. But again, I'd caution us to consider context here. LaMelo Ball went to a bad team where he could jack up shots. Hampton played on a contending team that didn't spoon-feed him minutes.
Given that limited sample, I'm falling back on the "eye test" here. No doubt, Hampton's shot is a problem. He's a poor shooter now, and it may be 2-3 years before he straightens it out. At the same time, his size and explosion jumps out at you, particularly when he's attacking the basket. He also appears to be a mature and charismatic young man. That combo -- physical talent + basketball character -- tends to be a winning formula. There's some chance Hampton turns out to be a genuine star as a scoring lead guard. There's also a sizable chance he busts. Still, it's the type of gamble that teams in the late lottery should be considering.
best fits
In a PG-rich class, it'd be bold for Detroit (#8) to reach on R.J. Hampton. Still, he would fit there, as the team could groom him behind Derrick Rose for another year or two until he's ready to take over for major minutes. Any team that can afford him the luxury of patience would be a nice landing spot, even if it means going later in the draft to places like Boston (#14, #26) or Utah (#23.)
worst fits
I'd be less bullish on R.J. Hampton in situations where he may have to play early and take his lumps. The N.Y. Knicks (#8) have struggled to develop point guards Frank Ntilkina and Dennis Smith already, and a new coaching staff doesn't make those concerns go away. Hampton would also have lower upside on teams that already have scoring guards locked in, like Sacramento (#12) or Portland (#16).
(11) PF Obi Toppin, Dayton (LOWER than most expert rankings)
When Obi Toppin sees the list of names ahead of him, he should be stewing with rage. He's arguably the most productive player on the entire board. This past season at Dayton, he averaged 20.0 points on 63% shooting from the field. He's a good athlete and dunker, and he even hit 39% of his threes. At 6'9", he's a natural PF but he could theoretically play some SF or C too if need be. What else does a guy need to do to go in the top 5??
But while Toppin checks all the boxes on paper, I'm a little more skeptical. In fact, he reminds me a lot of Arizona PF Derrick Williams, who went # 2 in the 2011 draft. Many pundits thought Williams was the best player in the class, fresh on the heels of an awesome sophomore season that saw him average 19.5 points per game on 60% shooting and 57% (!) from three. The trouble is: Williams benefited from a small sample size from 3 that year (74 total). And while he was athletic in the dunking sense, he didn't have the hip movement to guard 3s or 4s effectively.
We see some of the same traits play out here with Toppin. He dominated this past season as a (22 year old) sophomore. Still, I'm doubtful that his three-point shooting is as good as the numbers suggest. I'm doubtful that his run-and-dunk athleticism translates to the defensive end, where he often looks stiff when changing direction. I can see a scenario where Toppin is a scoring big in the mold of a John Collins, but it's more likely to me that he'll be a scorer off the bench instead.
best fits
While I'm cool on Obi Toppin myself, I fully admit that I could be wrong and he may just end up being Rookie of the Year. That may happen if he plays on a team like Washington (#9) where his guards will be able to take a lot of pressure off and give him good opportunities to score. Cleveland (#5) would also make some sense if they trade Kevin Love.
worst fits
If Toppin's defense is going to be bad, then he'd be a poor fit with Atlanta (#6). I also don't see much of a fit with Sacramento (#12) given the presence of Marvin Bagley III. In the long run, both may end up being smallball 5s.
(12) SF Isaac Okoro, Auburn (LOWER than most expert rankings)
We've all had this experience before. You'll go see a movie that you hear everyone rave about and you come away... underwhelmed. It's fine. It's OK. But you just don't get all the fuss about it.
Right out of that Silver Linings Playbook comes Isaac Okoro. His stats don't jump off the page: 12.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 0.9 blocks. He's allegedly a great defensive player, but his dimensions (6'6" with a 6'8" wingspan) don't suggest "stopper." Worse yet, he's a poor shooter from distance (29% from three, 67% from the line.) The last time I got this sense of "meh-ness" was Jarrett Culver last year. I didn't understand how he went in the top 5, and I'm not going to understand how Okoro goes in the top 10 this year.
To be clear, I don't think Okoro (or Culver) is a BAD prospect, just that they're both overrated by the community. Okoro is definitely a strong kid who is active around the rim. He's a live body. He could theoretically improve his shooting and become a starter. Still, "potential starter" is not something that I want in a top 10 pick.
best fits
While I don't love Isaac Okoro myself, I can see some good fits on the board. Washington (#9) could use some thicker wings who can play solid defense. Portland (#16) is incredibly desperate for capable wings themselves.
worst fits
With Okoro, I don't necessarily think the worst fits are a matter of skill set as much as expectation. If he goes as high as Chicago (#4) or Cleveland (#5), I suspect he'll disappoint in terms of the returns and garner some resentment from the fan base.
(13) SG/SF Josh Green, Arizona
As oddly overrated as Isaac Okoro is (in my mind), Josh Green is oddly underrated. Okoro tends to go about 10 spots higher in mock drafts, but they seem nearly identical in terms of a head-to-head comparison. In fact, I had to go back and forth about which I'd rank higher. They're both good athletes for their position and should be backend starters at the next level. Okoro is thicker and better around the rim, while Green is further along as a shooter. Overall I leaned to Okoro because he had the size to match up with bigger SFs and has a little more of a bullying scorer gene in him, but it was a close race.
In fact, you can argue that Josh Green's selflessness will actually benefit him in the NBA. He's a "team guy," with an underrated passing ability and basketball IQ. The stats don't jump off the pages in that regard (2.6 assists, 1.6 turnovers), but he was also playing with a good college PG in Nico Mannion. As he moves to the NBA, he's unlikely to have the ball much either, but he projects to be an all-around glue guy who can help on both ends.
best fits
As with Isaac Okoro, Portland (#16) could be a nice landing spot for a solid wing player. And while New Orleans (#13) has a lot of athleticism already, it never hurts to have another viable wing. They tended to play small at the SG-SF spot, which hurt their defense overall. Playing Green could help them when they slide Brandon Ingram over to the 4 and Zion Williamson at the 5.
worst fits
I don't see many "bad" fits for Josh Green on the board, but you'd prefer that he went to a team that intended to make him a part of the future. Minnesota (#17) may not be able to do that if they already have Jarrett Culver and Josh Okogie. Brooklyn (#19) may not be looking for long-term projects since they're in a "win now" mode.
(14) PG Tyrell Terry, Stanford
Tyrell Terry is rocketing up draft boards on account of his stellar shooting ability (41% from 3, 89% from the line) and his better-than-expected measurement of 6'3". It's only natural that pundits would start comparing him to stud shooters like Steph Curry.
That said, not every stud shooter is Steph Curry. Some are Seth Curry. Some are Quinn Cook. There's a slight chance Terry breaks out as a good starter, but there's a better than average chance he peaks as a rotational player instead. Still, he should be an asset to a team as a spacer, particularly if they run their offense through a playmaking forward (like a LeBron James).
And in case you're wondering, no he is NOT related to Jason Terry, although some of their skill sets do overlap as scoring guards with deep range.
best fits
If we presume that Tyrell Terry can be a Seth (not Steph) type player, then adding him to Dallas (#18) makes sense. He can develop behind Seth for a year or two as he gains weight, and then help complement Luka Doncic as a spacer after that. Similarly, he makes sense for Philadelphia (#21) as well. We'd still lock Ben Simmons into the starting PG role, but Terry could play alongside him in lineups or be used as a sparkplug off the bench.
worst fits
Teams that may be eyeing Tyrell Terry as a surefire starter will have to be careful. For example, Phoenix (#10) needs an heir apparent for Ricky Rubio, but a Terry + Devin Booker combo may be problematic on the defensive end. Some other teams -- Brooklyn (#19) and Denver (#22) -- already have sharpshooter guards, so they don't have as strong of a need for this type of player.
(15) PF Aleksej Pokusevski, Serbia
We mentioned that LaMelo Ball may be the biggest boom/bust prospect in the class, likening him to gambling on Roulette. Enter Aleksej Pokusevski. "Gambling" may not even be doing it justice. This is like risking your family fortune on a bag of magic beans.
But hey, that worked for Jack, and it could work for an NBA team as well. I have a friend who works in coaching who raved about Pokusevski and considers him a top 10 prospect overall. After all, this is a legit 7'0" player with true perimeter skills. Playing for Olympiacos' development team, he averaged 16.7 points, 12.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.0 steals, and 2.8 blocks per 36 minutes. He hasn't even turned 19 years old yet, giving him an enormous amount of upside.
Still, he scares the hell out of me. He's listed at 7'0" and 200 pounds, with narrow shoulders that make you doubt how much weight he'll be able to carry in the long term. His body type doesn't remind you of any current NBA forwards; it reminds you of two kids wearing a trenchcoat.
All in all, Pokusevski seems like a great prospect to invest in, presuming you don't have to withdraw from the bank until 2023 or 2024. To that end, teams should only consider them if they feel confident in their long-term job security.
best fits
If the goal is to send Aleksej Pokusevski to a good, stable organization, then you can't do much better than San Antonio (#11). Even if Gregg Popovich retires from coaching, R.C. Buford should be around to help the next coach (Becky Hammon? Will Hardy? R.C.'s son Chase?). And if the goal is to find a good stable GM, Sam Presti and Oklahoma City (#25) would be a great home as they prepare for a long-term rebuild.
worst fits
Orlando (#15) always values length, but they have limited space left in the frontcourt and limited leg room left on that poor charter plane.
I wasn't kidding when I said this post was "overly" long. The rest of the top 20 got cut off because of a length limit. I'll try to include them in the comment section.
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can i bet on all numbers in roulette video

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You can bet on the first, second, or third dozens of numbers (1-12, 13-24, 25-36), or on the first, second, or third column. The winning odds for those bets is 32.43% in European Roulette, and 31.58% in the American version. As a result, this bet can bring you more winnings as the payout for Column and Dozen is 2:1. Odds & Payouts for Inside Bets How many numbers should you bet in roulette? Well, it depends. All numbers on the roulette wheel each have their pros and cons It would help if you decided whether your position in the game calls for betting few or many numbers in the game. Roulette is an incredibly well-balanced game, so you might find it very difficult to exploit “holes” in the game. if you decide to bet more numbers, it ... Longer answer: You are evidently betting on a roulette wheel with 38 numbers (1 - 36, 0, 00). If you bet on 35 numbers then if any of those numbers come up you win a net $1. But if none of those numbers come up you lose $35. So your net win is. or, on average, a net loss of per spin or almost $2 per spin. Betting on single numbers is a bad idea. You can place bets on the lines between the numbers (these are called “street bets”) and on lines at the corners of numbers (these are called “corner bets”). But even though you get pretty good odds (payoff) you’re still covering too few numbers. How Bets Work in Roulette All numbers on a roulette wheel have the same chance of winning, and are subject to the same house edge. There is literally no difference between 0, 36 and every number in between. Some roulette players feel they have to play their lucky number as they would feel sick if they saw it come up and hadn’t bet their casino chips on it. Others prefer to back hot or cold numbers as they believe the ... Roulette table odds change according to which bet you make, for example, inside bets including single roulette numbers have lower winning odds than outside bets, but higher payouts. Outside bets, like colour bets (red/black), have almost a 50/50 chance of winning but a 1:1 pay-out. Making them some of the best numbers to bet on roulette. In such a case, you simply bet on the numbers that are biased. On a typical biased roulette wheel, this can be between 6 to 12 different numbers. In some cases, it may only be one or two numbers. Keep in mind though that hot numbers are very different to genuinely biased numbers. Just because a number one more frequently in the past 100 spins, doesn’t mean the trend will continue. Absolutely. Just remember there are 37 or 38 numbers depending on what type of roulette you are playing. (Single or double zero) A straight up bet pays 35 to 1….meaning a dollar bet makes 35. So you will lose no matter what. The roulette game is the one, where everything is non-predictable, because you cannot make the ball land in a specific pocket. So, we suppose that you can bet on any number you want or like. If you do not have your lucky number, you can use a Lucky Number Generator Roulette numbers. The European roulette wheel has 37 compartments (pockets) featuring all numbers from 1 to 36 and one zero (0). The main difference with the American roulette is that the latter has 38 divisions, including a double zero (00) as well. Taking in mind that the payout for a winning bet is 35-1 for the correct number, it means that players betting in the European roulette have more winning chances! Now let’s see the roulette numbers sequence in the different wheels.

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[index] [4645] [7249] [936] [7984] [8439] [5761] [8721] [651] [6950] [8663]

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can i bet on all numbers in roulette

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