Bet prediction for today, tommorow, weekend. Bet numbers ...

This fuckup didn't happen today, it was back in 1992. But there’s a lot of stories about medical professionals and their quiet acts of often invisible heroism in the news right now. I thought that this week, I would share one of my own stories about them. Because while they are absolutely heroes in our midst, some of those life-saving stories and incredible acts come with a laugh or two along the way.
These laughs, as they often do, come at my expense. It’s a price I gladly pay to give you a much needed moment to breathe in all of the hell we are enduring together throughout the world right now.
Enjoy, Chris
Yes, I know, I’m a complete fucking idiot. Let’s just get that out of the way from the start. My only defense was that I was a teenager in the 90's at the time, and my dick was doing most of the thinking for me. On the whole, I’m a reasonably intelligent guy. My dick however, is much like one of those morons you meet who is all balls, no brains. Despite the fact that thinking with my dick got me through highschool at the top of my class, it has proven itself repeatedly to have no memory, no conscience, and what I will simply classify as “questionable moral fiber”.
An obscure, late 20th century English philosopher known for his ballistic dentition once said “Dicks have drive and clarity of vision. They’re not clever.” and he was correct. But like most people who are all balls and no brains, that kind of decision making invariably leads to collecting good stories, and occasionally being scarred for life.
This is one of those good stories, and it’s about a scar.
I was sixteen, vacuously stupid, and the world as I knew it revolved entirely around my radiant affections for one hell of an awesome girl. She was short, beautiful, built like a soccer player, and had curves in all the right places. Miraculously, she was also my steady girlfriend. We had a magnificent system that involved a standing weekly date. This almost always consisted of exactly three things: dinner, a movie, and the furious, passionate, awkward sex that only inexperienced young lovers can have in the contorsionistic confines of an automobile.
Good times.
On the right day of the week you could catch a 2nd run movie at the Alpine Twin for just a couple bucks. Urban sprawl hadn’t reached far enough yet to consume all the best spots for privacy, and we knew every one of them. It was a great time to be young and in love.
God is not without a sense of humor, however, and one particular week fate would throw me a curve. A movie had just come out that her father wanted to see. In a tormentative moment of parental schadenfreude, they decided it would be a great idea to join us on our weekly movie night for a wholesome double date.
I was trapped. I couldn’t say no, her dad was a towering giant of brooding scowls who instilled the fear of God in me. He was an incredibly kind and funny man, but he commanded my respect and there was absolutely no doubt he held the fate of my love life at his whim. I was a nerdy, country kid from the wrong side of the tracks and he made it very clear that I was dating his daughter only so long as both her and him deemed that acceptable. She adored me, he tolerated me, and it was my lowly position to be grateful for the opportunity.
I was fine with that. I was spending every Saturday night with her sowing my wild oats, and going to church every Sunday with him praying for crop failure.
So we all met at her house, the whole family piled into their car, and off we went. We didn’t go to our comfortable, low-budget, second-run theatre out on the north end of town with the thin crowds that encouraged sitting towards the back well away from anyone who could see wandering hands and notice the whispers of young lovers. We went out to the fancy first-run theatre, the gigantic cineplex and shining star of the lower west side, Studio 28, where we would be packed side by side with strangers and held to much higher standards of socially acceptable behaviour.
Studio 28 was massive. Thousands of people filled its acres of parking lots and watched the latest movies on twenty different massive screens with reclining seats in air conditioned comfort. One movie cost more than what we would spend for a month's worth of dates at Alpine - including food. But her dad was funding the entire expedition and I was happy to just be with her.
My lovely girlfriend however, was a hormone-driven, devious genius, and happened upon a simple idea that changed my life forever. She noticed that they list not only the start times of the movies, but the duration as well.
It had never for a moment crossed my mind that we didn’t all have to go to the same movie. Studio 28 was so massive that not only did they have a ton of different movies playing, many of them shared the same start times. She found a completely different show to catch, sorted out the details with her dad, and off we went on our own. She had stared into the bleakness and brilliantly wrought forth for us the greatest commodity of young lovers who live with their parents: privacy.
For such a monumental day in my life, I don’t even remember what the movie was. But I do remember spending an hour and a half in the dark getting each other as worked up as we dared. The lines of socially acceptable behaviour were a lot tighter back then, but we were enjoying them to the best of our youthful ability.
Our movie got out, and we made the long walk to the back-forty of the parking lot hand in hand and hopped in the car. We had no concrete idea when her parents' movie would get out, so we were just hanging out, waiting, and of course sharing only the most chaste and pure of good Christian thoughts.
Just her, me, and our collective sexual tension that burned with the power of a supernova. It really was only a matter of time before it all reached criticality.
Because sitting in a glass bubble in the middle of a thousand cars is totally the best possible place to be doing such things. I was a little on edge, but that didn’t stop her. It certainly did, however, limit our options.
The good news was that I at least had a clear line of sight all the way up our row, and would easily see anyone approaching from the theatre. I kept a watchful lookout, and she decided to take action.
In a matter of a few seconds, she was sucking my dick like it was filled with her father’s acceptance. Not a moment later, I saw the crowd of people start pouring out of the theatre doors. It didn’t take me long to spot her parents, hand in hand. Her dad’s bright blue shirt stuck out in the crowd, even though they were still a quarter-mile away.
And then, at that exact moment, is when I fucked up.
That’s when I did one of the dumbest things in my entire life; I made a split-second trivial decision that would leave me scarred forever.
Now, what I could have done is simply reach down, gently pull her head out of my lap, and have a mildly disappointing end to some fun, gone on with my day, and been just fine. Hell, given how far away they were, the hair-trigger of a teenage boy, and her skillful abilities we could have likely finished without pushing our luck.
The problem with wisdom is that you don’t get it until five seconds after you need it.
What I did, in a moment of youthful stupidity, was say “Your dad’s coming!” and sit up straight in my seat.
And that, my dear reader, is the exact moment that shit got real.
Please understand that what I’m about to describe is much like a car crash. It will take me far longer to describe it than it took to actually happen. All of this transpired in just a moment, but that moment is burned into my brain forever. I apologise now, that it shall be burned into yours. When you share this story with your friends, you’ll know they got to this part when you see them adjust themselves in their seat. No man is immune to this effect.
In one smooth powerful movement driven by pure reflex and fear, without a moment’s conscious thought, she snapped her head up, bolted upright in her seat, and while making that transition from laying on me to sitting next to me she stuffed my dick back into my jeans and ran that fuckin zipper all the way home with the power of an angry linebacker.
The problem is I had never unbuttoned my pants, and it was a lot smaller when it came out ten minutes ago than it was when she decided to cram it back in through, what was now, much too short of a hole. She fought it in there in half a second, it just wasn’t situated as well as it needed to be.
Then, with the delicate touch of a bricklayer she had yanked that zipper though several inches of my most delicate sensitivities and made me one with my Levi’s.
It happened in the blink of an eye.
I was absolutely convinced I was going to die.
The pain was far worse than what you imagine right now. It was radiant and consuming. She had caught roughly…very roughly...the entire front of the most sensitive skin I own and interlaced it down nearly the full length of the zipper. I could glimpse a thin line poking out the front, and there was nothing I could do about it but sit there with tears running down my face and her parents approaching.
She immediately knew what had happened, subtlety is not a skill I possess even on my best days. I think it may be when I levitated, shooting to the ceiling, howling in pain that she got her first hint that something was wrong. She was mortified, I was in agony, and the shitshow had just begun. I untucked my shirt to cover the obvious injury, and wiped my tears.
It was hard travel across the great prairies of the parking lot. I heard they lost five good men, and at one point had to start eating the horses to survive. But eventually, months later, her parents finally made it to the car.
The first battle was the parking lot. Several hundred people had all gotten out when we did and had to find their way to the exit. It took half an hour of stop and start agony while we all shuffled into place and trickled out onto 28th street - a bustling busy main thoroughfare of the lower-west side.
And the fun was just beginning.
Florida makes oranges, Idaho makes Potatoes, and Hollywood makes movies. But Michigan, we make potholes. Northbound 131 is a washboard of suspension testing craters that can knock your teeth loose. Because of the complicated interaction of freeze-thaw cycles, capillary action of water retention in asphalt, and the fact that we run snow plows for a third of the year there is a regular pattern of patched sections on the highway spaced at predictable intervals for miles on end.
And I felt every one of those sonsabitches as we launched and bounded from pock to pock, all along my dick.
It took about thirty minutes to get from Studio28 to their house. That was the longest half hour of my life. I felt every bump in the road in between my own heartbeats as I throbbed in agony sitting awkwardly in the back seat. The only saving grace was that her and her mom were making small talk about the movies they had each seen and my opinion didn’t matter. I sat there sniffling and rubbing my swollen, red eyes. When her mom asked me if I was okay I uttered the only word I could manage on the entire ride home.
“Allergies”.
We made it to her parent’s house, said our goodbyes, and she walked me across the street to my car. It took more work to get into my mom’s old boxy beige Pontiac Grand Prix than it did to get out of her parent’s SUV, but I made it, tenderly.
Mission two accomplished, her parents had no idea. So that crisis was averted.
Now, I had to choose. I was on the edge of The City. If I went East, I could fight my way through traffic to the giant gleaming state-of-the-art hospital located right downtown and wait in line in the emergency room. If I went West, I was heading towards home and in my own small country town was a little Med Center staffed with only a handful of people whose main job was helping people with minor bumps and bruises, and keeping the critical patients alive long enough for the ambulance to get there and haul them off to one of the much larger neighboring cities.
I headed towards home. It was farther, but faster. I hopped on I-96 and blasted into the night more scared of hitting a deer than being pulled over for speeding. I figured if any cop pulled me over, all I had to do was show him my situation and there wasn’t a man in the world who would fault me for being in a hurry. I had a much higher chance of getting a police escort to the Med Center than getting a ticket, so off I went as fast as Mom’s old Pontiac would carry me.
I arrived without incident and walked gingerly through the front door. I’d never been to the Med Center before. My parents were on the rescue squad of the local volunteer fire department so anything short of a sucking chest wound in my house was dealt with by someone running for the jump-bag in Dad’s truck. Any sort of injury was handled on only the best of equipment: the kitchen table.
Life’s different in a small town.
That’s why I wasn’t even slightly surprised when I walked in the front door and the triage nurse at the front counter stopped typing, looked me straight in the eye with genuine concern on her face and said “Chris, are you ok?”.
It was my mom’s friend. Not only did this woman know me, she’d known me since I had training wheels on my bike. I knew she was a Nurse. Half the women in my world were Nurses, my mom was a Nurse. She worked at a nursing home filled with other Nurses. How the hell was I supposed to remember that one of her best friends just so happened to work at the Med Center.
I should have gone East.
“No Ma’am” I said, and quickly added, wincing, “please don’t tell my Mom”
“What happened, show me what you did”
Now, I grew up around trauma and emergency medicine. Back then they were dispatched with one-way pagers the size of a brick that looked like walkie-talkies. There was only one channel for the whole county, and every department had its own unique series of musical tones that told us who the message was for. It squawked and whistled all day and night and you never even noticed it.
But when the BEEDEEBEEDEEBEEDEEBEEDEE-DOOOOOOOOO-----DEEEEEEEEEEEE sound that designated our unit came over that radio, it would take you out of a dead sleep before they got to the “COOPERSVILLE UNIT TWO-OH-FIVE” part of the message and Mom, Dad, or sometimes both, were headed out the door on a dead run before it stopped talking.
If this happens while you’re out somewhere with Dad in the truck, you’re along for the ride. It was somewhere around age twelve when “stay in the truck” just didn’t work for me anymore. I’d learned where babies came from by watching a screaming Asian woman have one on the tailgate of a Subaru in the McDonald’s parking lot. I’d seen bodies mangled and I knew first hand why they called the people who ride crotch-rocket motorcycles “Organ Donors”. I’d learned the smartest and most heroic humans alive fly in AeroMed, and I knew that rescue crews have no problem working up to their elbows in your blood and then going out for pizza half an hour later. It’s just meat.
I was also well aware that the strongest, hardest, most stoic, most unimaginably un-fucking-fazed woman you’ll ever meet, is a Triage Nurse.
So I lifted up my shirt.
And, for just a moment, I saw her humanity crack through her professional stoicism.
I pray that you go your entire life and never once hear a Triage Nurse say “Oh Dear” when she looks at whatever injury you have. It’s up there with getting a prostate exam and hearing the Doctor behind you say “Aw, fuck!”. You don’t want any part of this situation.
There was no paperwork, and my ass never touched one of the beige plastic chairs in the tiny waiting room. She stood up and walked me through the door behind the counter and ten seconds later I was sitting on the crinkly butcher paper of an examination table with my legs dangling over the edge.
A Nurse who was only ten minutes older than I was came in just a moment behind me. Thankfully, I didn’t know her at least, but I’d have liked to under different circumstances. She held a BP cuff in one hand and a clipboard in the other and asked me how I was feeling and if I had any allergies. We chatted for perhaps a whole minute before she asked me what was wrong.
I lifted my shirt.
She took it well, just a tiny gasp before she got her shields back in place. But her blush betrayed her. She held tight to her professionalism and assured me that the Doctor would be right in as she stumbled gracefully backwards out of the room. However, I did notice that she never did get my BP, temp, or anything else.
The Doctor was indeed, right in. I had been sitting there less than five minutes when he strolled into the room and said “So, I hear you’ve had an interesting evening.”
He pulled up a little rolling stool, put on a pair of gloves, and scooted up for a front row seat between my knees as I sat sideways off the edge of the table. We discussed how I had gotten myself into this situation, and he surveyed the damage. I found it ironic that the one person who had shared this experience with me and who could truly appreciate what I was going through was the one person who was completely at ease with the situation. Of course…..it wasn’t his dick.
It was also the first time I’d gotten a real look at things myself, and it was worse than I’d imagined. The skin on the bottom of my shaft was peeking out through the golden teeth of the zipper all the way from about a half inch above the bottom of the zipper to the top. There was way more blood than I had noticed at first and it had stained my pants several inches in every direction. The total zipped length was nearly five inches, and it was under tension on the inside because the standard response to pain is for your dick to shrink up like a stack of dimes.
The added effect, because my brain is an asshole, was that the pain just intensified once I got a look at it.
He pulled out a pair of trauma shears and we discussed what he was going to do about half a second before he did it with a running commentary. He planned on cutting my pants off around the zipper. I was fine with this, off is good, let’s get this off - free me from my golden restraints good Doctor!
Deftly, gently, and with surprising ease the shears sliced right through the seams and folds of my jeans. He cut the bottom through several layers of denim and seams straight up to the base of the zipper, and sheared off either side about four inches away, leaving me with two flaps joined only by the teeth of the zipper and the button on top. He spun on his wheels, reached in the third drawer behind him, pulled out a pair of cutters like I would have in my toolbox, and snipped off the bottom half-inch of zipper entirely. It fell to the floor and landed with a wet plop.
He gently unbuttoned what was now a much smaller piece of my pants, and examined it closely for a couple minutes with a flap held in either hand.
Then he said something you never, ever, want to hear any manner of medical professional say to you.
“We’re gonna go on three...”
We’re…..WHAT!? Where? Whatthefuckare...
“One”
There was no motherfucking Two. Three was an outright lie.
The way out was as blindingly fast and traumatic as the way in. The entire process was loud, a wild blur of motion, and terrifying. In what I have absolutely no doubt was a process he had experienced before, he tore apart the two halves of my zipper with the haymaker strength of a farm boy and kicked himself away from the side of my examination table with both feet to send himself rocketing backwards across the tiny room well clear of the wild reflexive punch I swung through the space his head had occupied a split second before. He landed in a heap, half fallen off his rolling stool, with a piece of my jeans in either hand and an accomplished smile from ear to ear.
That all happened in less than a second. It took exactly the amount of time it took me to say “MOTHERFUCK-....eh?”
The good side is, it didn’t actually hurt all that much when he did that. The bad side was, the blood was now rushing to my dick and it was throbbing with every heartbeat. It hurt like all hell.
We both took a moment to compose ourselves and both spoke at the same moment, saying the exact same thing.
“Are you alright?”
I looked at the sad strip of hamburger laying in my lap, surrounded by a terrifying amount of dried blood in matted black hair. It looked like Edward Scissorhands had given me an old fashioned.
“No?”
I had visions of sutures, staples, and all forms of Spanish Inquisition cock torture that I was about to endure and was blissfully thankful that all he needed to do was clean everything off and tape a strip of gause to it. After the most unpleasant experience I’ve ever had involving my dick being cleaned, complete with being hosed down with Betadine, now it I just looked like I’d fucked an Oompa Loompa.
I asked what would happen if I got a hardon, would I bleed to death or something? He assured me that the last thing I was going to get in the immediate future was an erection. After a few days it would be fine all on its own.
I thanked him for saving my manhood, secured my pants with my belt, hid the giant square hole in front under my shirt, and headed home. I tossed my shredded jeans in the trash, took a shower that involved the creative application of a baggie and a rubber band that moments before had been holding the wing on my model airplane.
He was right, I didn’t have any danger of getting a hardon for over a week. The throbbing pain became a dull ache that would hover just on the edge of being actively conscious of it. Sleeping was complicated, but I managed. After a few days it didn’t hurt at all, and a couple weeks later I was back to normal. In the third week a full operational test proved that all repairs had been completed and that all systems were operating within nominal specifications.
But it’ll be a cold day in hell before I let a woman zip me up again. I’ll take care of that on my own, thank you.
The scar is considerable, tapering to half an inch wide at the base and running front and center along the bottom of my shaft up to the tip. It’s been the topic of more conversations and won more stupid bets than I want to think about. But it’s part of me, a part of my life, and I’m just thankful that despite the relentless abuse and poor decisions my dick has endured, that all in all, things are working just as they should thanks to the compassionate care of a young country Doctor and a small team of Nurses.
Thank you to everyone in the medical profession, of any rank and stripe, for enduring all that you do to help us fumbling idiots live to see another sunrise. You are awesome.
With my kindest regards, cb
---------Addendum Edit, Because holy shit my inbox.
In the end, like all good stories, things actually worked out alright. Her and I resumed our weekly Pontiac wrestling match and eventually as we gained wisdom, experience and the seasons turned warmer, found several much more comfortable places to explore each other’s bodies. All in all we dated for a little over a year in total. Our relationship ran the natural course of typical highschool lovers, and ended just as it should have. We both ended up dating each other’s friends, such is life in a small town, and went on with our lives.
Her Dad never really did like me all that much, and that’s ok. I was a shitty teenager and certainly didn’t have the best of intentions for his daughter. That’s ok, she wasn’t nearly the good little girl he thought she was. But we were, on the whole, decent kids and we came out alright. He was a good and righteous man and was worth my respect; though I wouldn’t learn the true depths of that until I gained a lot more maturity. He died years ago, far too young, from a heart that wasn’t worthy of the love he carried for so many people.
She’s married now, with a couple kids and what I hope is a good and happy life. I haven’t talked to her in decades, but I sincerely wish her well.
I healed up just fine. This all happened back in 1992. Over the years the scar has faded to being something that’s still there, but hardly noticeable. It looks more like a shadow now, or a slight discoloration. You can still spot it, if you look, but it’s something that doesn’t get mentioned by anyone unless we’ve been together for several months and they’re really exploring my cock. I have to think it’s fine now, as I’ve been complimented many times on it’s appearance.
I’d like to thank the many people who have read this and commented on my writing. I’m just starting out on the path to being an author, and I’ve been posting my stories here on Reddit to see if anyone liked them. It turns out, you really do, far more than I imagined. With all of my heart, thank you. Your support and enjoyment of my dopey stories means far more to me than I can adequately express. I’m still learning how to find my voice, but you’ve certainly helped me along on the path.
If you enjoy my writing, there’s much more of it out there, and even more coming. Check my profile and you’ll find half a dozen other stories scattered about the Reddit universe. You're welcome to follow me or friend me on here if you wish. I would be sincerely honoured and I'm working to earn an audience, and even someday a paycheck. You’ll also find my YouTube channel (I make science and technology educational videos as my day job), and my Patreon if you’d like to support my work. I’m a full time YouTuber now, and for the past year. Though after your responses to my stories lately, I think I’ll add Author to that as well.
And for the ridiculous number of people who have begged for a goddamned pic, fine. Go to Imgur, it's /a/WbCHtEw it's VERY NSFW
Yes, that’s really me. Yes, it’s real. No, I’m straight, but thank you.
TL:DR - A bit of adventuresex at a movie theatre resulted in a blowjob and I get zipped up epicly. Had to go to the Dr and learned my mom's best friend worked there. I was scarred for life. It's a long story but worth your time, read it, you'll like it.

Managed to reach rank 40 just in time! And I’d like to mark the occasion by reviewing every single event!

I love this game. I’ve played for about 50 hours and achieved 23 victories at the time of writing. Judging by the stats on Steam I suppose that I'm a little bit above the average, but since I can only play during short periods of time, I do think of myself as a rather casual player.
However, I have very strong opinions about the game because of my past experiences as a competitive player in other videogames. So, now that the season is almost over, I’d like to share my thoughts and hopefully provide some honest feedback.
I’ll do my best to cover the mid-season changes and compare both versions of the events whenever possible. Keep in mind that these are just my opinions, and even when I say something very deterministic such as “it’s not fun” or “it doesn’t work”, it only applies to my own experience and I understand that everyone else had a different experience.
Let’s go.
Dizzy Heights
This course is very well made. It manages to combine what I consider the two most important factors when it comes to having fun in this game: rewarding good luck, and rewarding skill. Even better, the stage allows you to minimize luck once you’re experienced and skilled enough.
The first section, with the spinning circles and the yellow bumpers, is a nice introduction to what Fall Guys is about. I like that you used to be able to learn an optimal route before the mid-season update (rewarding dedication), and I enjoy that it now awards being able to adapt (rewarding skill).
The second section, with the uphill platform and the cannonballs makes sense too, and it’s fun that it encourages a bunch of different strategies (hiding, diving, changing lanes) regardless of skill level.
The third section is very similar to the first one, but I really like that the course keeps on going with an alternate route even if you fall. I feel that we don’t have enough alternate routes on the game as a whole.
The updated version of the third section has two variations, the one with the wrecking balls is great, but I’m not sure I understand the purpose of having the whole upper section disappearing in the second version. Why?
Don’t have a lot to say about the last section, but I think it’s fine as it is, and the addition of BIG YEETUS adds a fun twist when available. Taking a bet is fun when it’s a choice.
Hit Parade
This one I have a problem with. The first section is fine, either you fall or you don’t, which may not be that inspiring but I think that’s fine, not everything needs to be flashy.
The second section, however, the one with the revolving doors, doesn’t work at all. I imagine that the idea behind it was having the players working against one another by navigating a route of their choice, and probably having to deal with other players pushing from the opposite side. That’s a cool concept, but in practice all that players actually do is just running in a straight line, without anything else going on other than first timers walking against the current, learning immediately to never ever do that again. Maybe a different layout could help solve this.
For that reason, I don’t think the bottleneck at the end of such section work either, because instead of having multiple choices on how and when to exit, the decision is made for you by the physics engine, whether you are pushed between the doors, or to the sides.
The updated version (the one with the rotating bars) is much better because it rewards skill while luck is still present in the form of players bumping against you and ruining your day. It’s a vast improvement.
The third section is great, but I have to say that the wrecking balls going side to side work much better than going towards you, because they are much easier to doge that way. The last section is fine, not a lot to say about it, other than I find the hammers’ version way more fun.
See Saw
This one is great. It just is.
Sure, it’s frustrating to suffer dumb decisions made by other people, and it’s infuriating when others take advantage of your hard work while leaving you behind; but in the case of See Saw I feel that those scenarios exemplify the game’s main strengths.
This race rewards skill, understanding of game mechanics (not to say, common sense), and being able to read the situation, which makes for a great event.
I don’t have anything to say about the mid-season update. Variety is good and I don’t think that any of the new patterns ruin the experience, so that’s fine.
As a side note, I really enjoy that this event is fun to spectate after you cross the finish line. Most other races are decided within seconds from the first few players qualifying, but the nature of See Saw allows players to recover after a couple mistakes, and it’s fun to grab a drink and laugh at the misfortune of others after crossing that line. It’s great.
Door Dash
This one is far from my favorites, but I understand the idea behind it and I think it works fine for what it is. I appreciate that there’s a way to find the real doors at the last three lanes, which allows the strategy of playing patiently at first and making use of your experience later. That’s good design, and I don’t think that I would like it as much if it was 100% luck.
Once again, the addition of BIG YEETUS is great. However, I don’t feel like the moving pillars from the update add anything to the race, since bumping into players pushing through the door is enough to drive you insane, and plays as the “luck” factor.
Gate Crash
Most of what I said about Dizzy Heights applies here too. The game rewards skill, experience, and allows to strategize in order to minimize luck. All sections of the map serve their purpose and I like that there’s a difficulty curve to it, with each layer of doors moving slightly faster, or in a stranger pattern.
The mid-season update was pretty good, since it’s now impossible to develop an optimal route without assessing the situation first, which means the event never gets boring.
Tip Toe
To be honest, I don’t find this event that fun. It’s my least favorite race, but I wouldn’t say it’s boring either. I’d classify it as a stressful experience, more than anything.
I’m not a fan of how punishing it is whenever you’re pushed out of the right path, especially while being closer to the finish line. And, don’t get me wrong, I’m fine with having other players deciding over your destiny, but I feel that most of the time those decisions are not made by the players, but by the physics engine.
I do like that it’s not pure luck, since you’re able to read the map somewhat, and it’s possible to work the crowd in your favor by virtue of being patient. However, I think that the idea behind this game would benefit greatly from being closer to the first events of the show, rather than being a semifinal.
I think I’d like a version of Tip Toe that is more forgiving by allowing more players, but within a much bigger map. Maybe even divided by sections and checkpoints? Like in See Saw? That sounds fun, actually.
Or maybe, it could stay as it is (second to last event, few players, fewer winners) but with an alternate route filled with obstacles for those who fall, allowing the lucky players to secure their spot, while the rest (of us) have a fighting chance by means of perseverance.
The Whirlygig
Another masterpiece. I don’t want to repeat myself too much with the whole “skill/luck” speech (see Dizzy Heights), but this race is another great example of what I think is fun in this game.
Onto specifics, I enjoy that there are a lot of ways to tackle every section, such as letting yourself be hit in order to get pushed ahead, or timing each jump perfectly, in hopes of not being knocked down by players turned into bullets.
In that regard, I feel the race works best because of the fact that it’s always the first or second race, which means lots of players trying their best, and lots of leniency because of it. This leniency provides room for experiments regardless of skill level, and I like it. And just like it was with See Saw, the game is fun to watch after you cross the finish line.
As for the mid-season updates, I feel they work very well. Changing the direction of the whirls at random means that you have to stay on your toes regardless of your experience with the game, and that’s good.
Slime Climb
This is it. The race of all races. The World 1-1 of Fall Guys, and the level that will most definitely come back for the anniversary season with a compilation of the game’s best races. At least that’s what I think.
This is my favorite level and I get all giddy whenever it shows up. I have fun in it even when I lose, because every victory feels earned, and every lose feels like a lesson learned.
I’d like to praise the difficulty of Slime Climb by pointing out that, yeah, falling to your death is harsh, and the level of urgency can sometimes be nerve-wracking. But at the same time, the level is designed in such a way that falling down from an obstacle (most likely the yellow cylinders) means that all you have to do is try again.
No matter the obstacle, you have enough time to try and fall from each section about 2-3 times before the slime catches up, which makes the event a learning experience to all skill levels and I think that’s fantastic.
The fact that you can learn and practice shortcuts, and strategize when and how to fight with other players, makes this race one of the best levels to reward dedication and decision making too, which is good.
I wish I could dissect every section of the race like I did with Hit Parade, but I’m trying to provide new info for all levels rather than keep repeating myself. In that regard, I don’t think there’s a single section of Slime climb that is not fair, fun, and exciting. Yes, even the yellow cylinders can be learnt to be dealt with. And this is true for all the mid-season changes too. This race just works.
If I had to write anything negative about Slime Climb, it would be that the camera can sometimes get a little funky around the corners, specially before the yellow rectangles that push you down. Other than that, I wish to get Slime Climb on my next show because I like it so much.
Fruit Chute
This one is fine for what it is, but I think it could be better. However, most of the changes that I’d like to see would make for a more complicated event, and I suppose that having simpler games is fine too.
My main complaint about Fruit Race is that, when you’re lucky, all you have to do is to press up in a straight line. It doesn’t take long to discover that pushing through the center is a bad idea, and since hugging the sides is not that difficult, it all comes down to not getting hit while jumping down to the conveyor belt (patience is key!), and hoping that players in front of you get hit, which is mostly luck.
In my mind, the concept of Fruit Race should be more like a struggle, having players traversing a mazelike layout, and taking for a fact that you will most likely get hit by the fruit at some point. But, since all players should be having a hard time, everyone should have an equal chance of winning as long as they don’t get too far behind.
To me, the winners of an event like this should be the ones with the best strategy, the ones with the most mechanical skill, and the lucky ones. The way it is now, getting hit means you’re done unless you’re among the very first places. It’s mostly down to luck and that’s fine, but I wish there was more room for decision making.
Jump Club
This one is fine. Don’t change anything.
I wish I had more to say but this event is fun and fair. That’s it. I mean, I’m here to provide feedback, not to nitpick, lol. Not to mention that I always wanted to be on Wipeout, so this game is like a dream come true.
If any, I’ll use this space to praise the controllers. Despite how easy it is to get pushed mid-air or to trip after landing, controlling a fall guy feels responsive and tight (before losing control of it, I mean), and that’s the reason a game like Jump Club works.
Roll Out
Same deal as Jump Club. The level is well designed, the concept is clear, and it’s fun. I wouldn’t change a thing.
Having walls dividing sections of the cylinder was a genius idea, because it provides a way for clutch plays and unexpected saves. If any, I wish the mid-season update changed the layout a little bit, because there is an optimal path, and once you see it it’s very hard to lose.
Block Party
Have you guys noticed how most games in the survival category are quite solid? Block Party is fun, challenging and fair. Heck, even when it feels unfair it’s mostly due to players working against you, be it intentionally or due to bad luck.
I like that you can see the blocks coming from a distance far enough that it’s possible to strategize in advance, but they appear close enough to remain a constant threat, especially near the end of the trial and when other players are trying to make you lose.
This one didn’t need an update because it came with different versions right from the start, and I think all of them are great, especially because each of them provides a different type of challenge: running, jumping, or not getting trapped. More like this in the future, please.
Perfect Match
Okay. This event was fun during the game’s early days, especially because it felt like a free win in comparison to the other levels and their respective learning curves. However, it has become increasingly boring over time, to the point that it now feels like a complete chore.
Thing is, I don’t think I would have done anything different. The game works fine for what it is, but unlike the rest of the events, the strategy for beating this level hasn’t changed one bit since day one.
And I’m not sure that adding hammers or wrecking balls would improve the experience either, because the way I see it, the problem with this game is rooted at its core concept: it’s a game of memory, and you can’t improve your memory in the same way that you can improve your mechanical skill with a videogame. (I mean, you can, but the processes are different).
And don’t get me wrong, the game is not easy. I’ve failed many times because I didn’t even see any banana, let alone remember where it was. Rather, I think my boredom has to do with the fact that Fall Guys is a competition, and yet you’re playing this event all by yourself.
In fact, the most fun I’ve had lately in Perfect Match has been by trying to trick players into standing over the wrong tile. Sometimes I spam the “over here!” emote on the wrong answer and have 5-6 players fall to their deaths. That’s amazing. And sometimes I die with them, but I have to do it in order to keep it interesting.
I’m all up for having more logic-based games, by the way. I wonder if any sort of math would work. Maybe having players splitting into groups? Maybe punishing wrong answers by slowing the player’s speed instead of losing? Maybe mazes? Manipulating railroads to run over others? I don’t know.
Tail Tag
I think this is, by far, the best one out of all three variations of Tail Tag. And the reason is simple: the layout of the map.
The hammer with the tiny “safe” zone at the center of the stage is genius. It’s such an obvious hideout that it’s not as safe as it seems, and that opens the door to fun mind games.
But most importantly, the bottom level below the center is perfectly crafted to play hide and seek. No only you can run in circles with the camera as your ally (not sure if that’s intentional), but you can also use the multiple exits to get in and out of the inner circle as you see fit, confusing the hell out of your pursuers. It feels like playing an old school cartoon and that makes the event quite funny.
I don’t think the rest of the layout is as interesting, but having a circular map was a great choice in general. It allows you to close your distance to others by walking in a straight line, and that provides room for strategy whenever you don’t have a tail.
Egg Scramble
Most of the team games involve pushing giant objects around, which results in an added layer of unpredictability on top of playing with strangers. And that’s what I like the most about Egg Scramble: you’re in control of everything you do, at least until another player grabs you, which is intended.
The map itself it’s ok, I like the way the hammers near the goal work both as allies and enemies depending on the situation. The tiny map works best for this, too.
However, while I think that sabotaging the losing team is and should be a perfectly valid strategy, it feels horrible when you are on the receiving end of both enemy teams because there’s NOTHING you can do about it. Going back and forth against another team is manageable, but when both of them decide to sabotage you, it’s over.
I don’t think it would hurt to have additional eggs appear on the stage during the course of the event. I’m not sure if this would solve the issue, but it would at least provide all teams with something to focus on rather than ransacking the losing team. It would also provide something to do in the middle of the map, which goes unused after the first few seconds of the match.
Rock ‘N’ Roll
This is my favorite team game, and I think it’s because it provides a clear objective for the whole team to work on: push the ball, win the race. It’s a task in which everyone can focus on, with very little room for sabotaging your own team either by accident, or due to poor decision making. I mean, it does happen, but humans are unpredictable, what can you do?
I haven’t put much thought into the first two sections of the map, but I think they work fine for what they are, by providing a slight learning curve, and by forcing the team to adapt and split tasks in order to steer the ball by the end of the second section. I like this sort of cooperative gameplay, and I wish this section was a little longer.
Despite everything of what I just said, I love the third section (the huge ramp towards the goal) because it allows the most experienced players to strategize in advance, and look for ways to sabotage the other teams whenever you notice that your own team is falling behind. It’s great and I like that it provides very tense and funny moments.
I think the last section works because the winning team disappears from the map after reaching the goal, which means that the fight for second place is always just between two teams, unlike the unwinnable scenarios of Egg Scramble. That, and the fact that the ramp goes down, which makes it easier to push the ball down, rather than stopping it.
The moving pillars and bumps added with the mid-season update are great, because they provide additional tension and strategy even for the team in first place. Before them, it was clear sailing if you were the first team to the ramp, but having the bumps means that your team needs to keep working together until the very end. I like that.
I’m not a fan of the hammers, since getting stuck is way less punishing that having your ball go backwards forever. That’s horrible.
Fall Ball
I won’t try to discuss what works and doesn’t work in soccer as a team game because that’s way out of the scope of this post. What I’ll say it’s that it took me quite some time to reach the point in which I felt as a valuable member of my team, because it took me a while to get a better understanding of the ball’s physics.
For the longest time I couldn't figure out if jumping gave better results than jumping and diving, diving, or just pushing the ball on the ground. To be honest I’m still not sure, and sometimes it feels like I’m punching a balloon, or trying to throw an unfolded sheet of paper. Do you know the feeling?
I think my confusion has to do with the fact that every single ball in this game seems to have a different weight to it, which means that you can’t practice for this event outside of the event itself. That may not seem like a big issue, but every second spent playing Fall Guys is a second spent practicing running and jumping, which makes you better at every single event, other than Fall Ball.
The mid-season updates were a hit or miss for me. I like the spinning circle in the middle, because it stops a more coordinated team from farming goals one after another. Having four balls on the court is a blast too; it makes for closer games and I wish the event was always like that.
But, I’m not a fan of the hammers and wrecking balls acting as goalies, since they add an extra layer of random on top of playing with strangers, and most of the time they are frustrating to play against, rather than fun.
Team Tail Tag
This one is fine and I think that they nailed the number of tails available on the field, because I’ve never felt that I’m way behind any other team, or so ahead that I can take a break. It always feels like your team should keep on fighting up until the very last second, which is good.
However, I think the map is not as clever as the one for the individual Tail Tag. It doesn’t have enough hideouts or “routes” for playing Tom & Jerry, or at least I haven’t found them to be as effective and fun as the ones in individual Tail Tag.
It’s rather hard to outrun your pursuers (at least without doing some fancy jumping tricks), and there aren’t many places to hide to try to surprise anyone. I feel like the map could use more hazards, or more corridors splitting from the central area. Most of the map outside of the conveyor belt are ramps, and they are not as fun to traverse while chasing people since they naturally slow you down.
To be honest, though, I’m not sure how I would improve the map because I think it works just fine as it is. There’s no section of the map that I particularly dislike, but I don’t have much praise for it either. I just think that the individual version of Tail Tag works much better, for the reasons explained above.
Jinxed
This may sound rather harsh, but I’ve never had fun while playing this game. Not even once.
The whole event feels like a coin toss. I’ve tried to follow strategies I’ve seen online, and I’ve tried to develop some of my own with various degrees of success; but at the end of the day, this game feels like I could just let go of my controller and let the (Fall) Gods decide over my destiny.
I think it has to do with the event having too many players for the relatively small size of the map. I wonder if this could work better with fewer players per team, and possibly by having 3 teams instead of 2, which I think allows for interesting decision making.
Also, the map is boring. The middle section with the underground corridors and the wrecking balls is a cool idea, but it goes unused after players discover that it’s mostly a death trap. You go in, and anyone can jump in to catch you. Maybe having the same corridors, but covered by a translucent floor could be a cool idea, opening the door to mind games.
I think the idea of having hazardous corridors works best when skillful (or lucky) players can actually take advantage of them. Maybe, the corridors and the wrecking balls could form a second floor above the level, working as a relatively safe hideout from the players below, until the hazards of the map force you to go down.
Closest thing we have to an interactive hiding spot are the spinning circles on the edges of the map, but the ramps that lead up to them are way too step, making for some really awkward gameplay. Most players miss the jump to the spinning platform, not because the jump is an actual test of skill, but because the physics behind jumping from an upwards ramp are deceptive, rather than interesting.
Yeah, not a fan of this one, but the idea has potential.
Hoopsie Daisy
I like this one. I especially enjoy that, as the player base is getting better, Hoopsie Daisy has provided me with the closest matches out of all the other team games. I’ve had games where the final score is something like 52-48-47, and that’s very exciting to play.
The game works because it does a good job at balancing both luck and skill. Some of the rings require a little bit of practice in order to reach, and that provides players with both short term and long-term goals for this event, which is great.
Luck is provided by not knowing your teammates, and by not knowing where the rings are going to spawn. However, the more you play you start to get a better idea of the best spots for farming rings, and that opens the door for having both a teamwide and individual strategy, which is good.
I like the that, unlike most other team levels, the layout of this one has a certain verticality to it, which I think is key for rewarding dedication, skill, and luck. When you’re able to go up and down the ramps farming rings left and right, it feels good.
The only reason I'd put Rock ‘N’ Roll above Hoopsie Daisy as the better team game, is the fact that the latter can be played in practice as an individual event, while Rock ‘N’ Roll requires actual cooperation. However, both styles of gameplay are good, and this non-issue can be solved by playing with friends and strategizing together. Good stuff.
Hoarders
I'm not too fond of this one because I seem to have an issue understanding the ball physics behind this game (see Fall Ball for details), but I can admit that the game works as intended, the map is well executed, and the number of balls available provide what I’d call “the sweet spot of fairness”, in which it’s very hard to lose hope unless your team is really, really bad.
Having three teams instead of two is one of the event’s great successes, because it reduces the dangers of landing in a poorly coordinated team, and makes it worthwhile to fight until the very end.
The map is well designed, too. Unlike most of my complaints about the other team games, this one doesn’t need to be more complicated, in fact, I’d say that being simplistic is another a great success. The mechanics of Hoarders do not need more hazards or verticality, since player interaction is enough to create interesting dynamics.
On that note, I didn’t like the mid-season updates. The moving pillars are fine, since you can mostly work around them, but the spinning hammers add a layer of luck that wasn’t needed (nor wanted) before.
Fall Mountain
Finally, we’ve reached the final events!
Unfortunately, I’m not very fond of Fall Mountain and I think I can summarize my feelings about it within the next sentence:
In Fall Mountain, it takes you 30 seconds to win, but it takes you 10 seconds to lose.
That’s it. By the time you get past the first spinning door you already know whether you have a real chance at the crown, or not. From that point on, the first player to make the smallest mistake is out of the competition, and everything happens so fast that the winner is pretty much decided at random by the falling balls.
I think Fall Mountain can and should be more like Slime Climb, in the sense that, yes, it should be rather difficult and somewhat unforgiving, but its layout should provide means for the players to make mistakes without losing instantly.
For example, I imagine a section near the middle of the climb, in which moving platforms, or the usual hazards (hammers, falling balls, etc.) make it most likely that you will fall out of the main path. But rather than falling into the slime or being disqualified on the spot, you are able to take an alternate path to go back at the beginning of the section and try again. Both Whirlygig and Hit Parade have sections like this.
If the whole race had two or three “filters” like this, it would make it for a very dramatic experience and a real struggle between players, since you could easily lose your first place by constantly messing up, and the straggling players would have a reason to keep on fighting, with catching up being a real possibility.
In that regard, I’d like to point out that Fall Mountain is the only final game that could be played just as well as a single player experience. You run in a straight line hoping not to get hit, and you’re rarely affected by whatever other players do. In comparison, every other final game requires people to compete against.
(The end of the race is the one exception to this, but even then, having the first place failing to catch the crown only benefits the player right behind him, and that’s it).
In that sense, I think adding sabotaging mechanics to a race could be a very interesting idea. For example, let’s say that there was a section in which there’s an upper level, and a lower level right under it (similar to Slime Climb). It'd be interesting if the actions taken by players on the lower levels could affect the hazards in the upper levels. Maybe, stepping on buttons could make the upper platforms disappear, or pushing through spinning doors could make door traps open up on the upper levels.
This sort of mechanic would add a lot of physical comedy, provide means for the players to fight each other regardless of skill, it would maintain the luck factor (since humans are unpredictable), and it would be extremely rewarding for the players that are good enough (or lucky enough) to avoid all of those hazards regardless of other players. A little bit like Mario Kart, I guess.
So, yeah. Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk on Fall Moun... Oh right, the mid-season updates. Yeah... well, the additional hazards and BIG YEETUS definitely improved the experience, but it could be even better.
Hex-a-gone
This is tied with Jump Showdown (spoiler alert) as the very best final event. Ive talked so much about rewarding luck and skill, that I don’t think I have to explain how beautiful and rewarding Hex-a-gone is.
I think it’s incredible that Hex-a-gone allows players to tackle on the challenge with a diverse set of strategies. Some people drop on purpose to the lower levels, some always try to stay on top, some start clearing hexagons from the center, while others prefer starting from the edges. And I find it admirable that each approach is capable of providing results, depending on the actions of the other players.
Hex-a-gone is perfect as it is and whoever came up with the idea deserves a raise. It deserves a spot along with Slime Climb for the All-Stars-Season of Fall Guys. I do have to point out, though, that having more than 10 players doesn’t work as well as it does with smaller numbers, since the game devolves from being about luck and strategy into mostly luck.
Royal Fumble
Go read what I said about Tail Tag, Team Tail Tag, and Jinxed, and you can pretty much guess what I think about Royal Fumble.
In summary, I love the idea of having one player versus the world for the very last event of the show. It’s always a struggle and it makes for a very exciting final. However, all of that is due to the players’ natural interaction, because the map itself is incredibly boring.
I swear that I can’t tell you about a single exciting moment that happened in Royal Fumble that was due to the layout of the map. The event would be just as exciting if it was played on the mostly plain court of Fall Ball. In fact, playing on the Fall Ball court would be kind of dope since the teleportation that happens between the goals and the center would provide some awesome interactions.
I feel that the developers played it way too safe with this map. I’d love to have this concept in a much crazier setup. Let us have verticality, levels, corridors, moving doors, mazes, dead ends, dead ends that change with time, teleporters, fake doors, heck... make us chase one another in an infinite Hex-a-gone, I don’t know.
I’m not saying that an ideal map needs all of the above to be fun, but as it now, the map for Royal Fumble doesn’t provide enough mechanics to make it an interesting chase.
Jump Showdown
What do you want me to say? Jump Showdown is perfect. Having this or Hex-a-gone show up for the final event is always a thrill. Timeless concept, perfect execution, ideal number of players. Love it.
Now... I have no clue how to end this after all of that, but thanks for reading and I wish you all good luck in Season Two!
Pic: https://imgur.com/a/nzoKZZJ

Covid-19 update Tuesday March 17th

Good morning from the UK. Happy St Patricks day. It'll be a woeful one for many Irish people around the world with pubs and bars shut in multiple US states, several European countries, several Asian countries and worst of all, Ireland itself. Here in the UK you can still go to the pub, although as of late yesterday afternoon the UK government advised against it says the BBC.

Virus statistics
Several comments from redditors in past days complained the WHO stats I C&P'd did not come very close to reflecting stats being quoted by national media wherever they lived. As a result, I'm abandoning the WHO stats and going back to the John Hopkins University tracker stats for all countries. If it's good enough for the likes of Forbes, Business Insider, FT, USA Today to regularly cite it then it's good enough for me:-

Region	Today (John Hopkins Stats at time of writing)	Yesterday (John Hopkins stats not the WHO's)	% daily change
Global	182,424	169,387	+7.7%
China	81,053	81,020	+0.4%
Italy	27,980	24,747	+13.1%
Iran	14,991	13,938	+7.6%
Spain	9,942	7,844	+26.7%
South Korea	8,320	8,162	+1.9%
Germany	7,272	5,813	+25.1%
France	6,655	5,437	+22.4%
USA	4,661	3,774	+23.5%
Switzerland	2,330	2,200	+5.9%
UK	1,553	1,395	+11.3%
Netherlands	1,414	1,136	+24.5%
Norway	1,347	1,256	+7.2%
Sweden	1,121	1,032	+8.6%
Belgium	1,058	886	+19.4%
Austria	1,018	860	18.4%

All other countries with under 1000 identified infections not listed (sorry Denmark), yesterday's threshold was 750. Total countries infected worldwide = 155, an increase from yesterday of 9. Source for all countries (as discussed above): the John Hopkins University dashboard (Link). (Personal note: Western countries infection counts are increasing each day much faster than Asian countries but that may be due to cultural differences or it may be that they're doing my testing, if anyone can shed light on this please do).
Reminder, these are identified case counts and medical experts are reporting this virus has a long incubation period with people being infections despite displaying no symptoms; the true infection figures are likely to be much higher. Note that some countries are reporting shortages of test kits which further skews the data available; assume true cases are much higher.
Finally, no, I don't believe China's official statistics either.

Selected Virus news

Warnings of shortages of regeants (ingredients) to make test kits in the US - the Fool (a high quality finance website despite the name) reports that FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn stated last week in testimony before a U.S. House of Representatives appropriations subcommittee that there could be supply chain issues with reagents needed for novel coronavirus diagnostic kits. He noted that the supply issues specifically apply to RNA used in testing for coronavirus disease COVID-19.

Shortages in US supermarkets likely to continue until panic buying eases - The LA Times says that shortages will continue until people calm down in their shopping habits. The major chains usually get shipments overnight, or perhaps twice a day, to restock essentials such as paper towels, toilet paper and water, but “manufacturers in some cases are having trouble keeping up, and that’s where the void is, they’re not able to keep up with demand,” said Bob Reeves, vice president for the West at the Shelby Report, a research firm that tracks the grocery industry. “We’re seeing shipments coming into the stores sometimes without any of those products, and it will be like that until people calm down a little bit,” he said. In some cases, chains are sending their delivery trucks directly to manufacturers — bypassing warehouses and distributors — to get the items to the stores faster. (Personal note: the same applies for all supermarket supply chains globally)

Pa. hospitals are rationing protective gear as the number of coronavirus cases grows - (Personal note, this is an example, there seems to be a general global shortage of medical PPE (personal protective equipment) - The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that hospitals across Pennsylvania are drastically limiting the use of key protective gear out of fears that a dramatic increase in coronavirus cases could diminish reserves and cause a dangerous shortage. The rationing comes as the state Department of Health maintains that it has personal protective equipment available and is working with health systems to make sure they have what they need. The gear includes eye protection, gowns, and N95 respirators, which are essential in preventing a health care worker from breathing in infectious particles when in close contact with someone who has COVID-19. In Philadelphia, two doctors who work at the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania said it’s barring the use of N95 respirators “except in extraordinarily limited situations.” Penn Medicine declined to comment. Another city doctor, Daphne Owen, said in a tweet Thursday her clinic “for uninsured and undocumented patients” was out of masks. Two days later, the clinic, Puentes de Salud, said it was closed due to the pandemic.

Other Virus news in brief
- The Scottish courts and tribunals announced today that no new criminal jury trials would be commenced or new juries empanelled until further notice.
- Iran has temporarily freed a total of 85,000 prisoners, including political prisoners, a spokesman for its judiciary said on Tuesday, adding that the prisons were responding to the threat of a coronavirus epidemic in jails.
- Britain had “no time to lose” in changing tactics in order to prevent thousands of deaths and the NHS being overwhelmed, scientists providing guidance to the UK government have said. The Imperial College Covid-19 response team – which is one of several scientific teams advising UK ministers – published a paper (I've put it in the addendum below) showing that 250,000 people could die if efforts were focused only on delaying and slowing down the spread of Covid-19.Separately, England’s deputy chief medical officer, Prof Jonathan Van-Tam, could not rule out the strict measures having to last for a year but predicted they would last at least “several months“.
- Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs has advised Australians to return home as soon as possible by commercial means because overseas travel is becoming “more complex and difficult” as countries impose travel restrictions and close their borders.
- Leaders of EU states were expected on Tuesday to suspend all travel into the passport-free Schengen zone by non-EU nationals for at least 30 days in a bid to instil uniformity across the bloc after some member states, including Austria, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland, unilaterally began imposing border checks.
- China has issued an angry reaction (by diplomatic standards) to the US president Donald Trump’s characterisation of the disease as “the Chinese virus.” (he tweeted late last night "The United States will be powerfully supporting those industries, like Airlines and others, that are particularly affected by the Chinese Virus. We will be stronger than ever before!"). China’s foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said the US president should take care of his own matters first and not seek to “stigmatise” China.
- The postponement of soccer’s Euro 2020 Championship may already have been decided after Uefa last week cancelled its hotel bookings in Copenhagen.
- The UK just advised its citizens against all non essential travel worldwide in the past 10 minutes
- Mobile phone networks are struggling in some areas of the UK with significantly increased demands according to down detector. For sure a lot of people seem to be home working, my commute in this morning was like it was the middle of August and everyone else was on holiday.
- Alitalia, the Italian airline flag carrier is to be renationalised by Italy
- Cinema chains are closing in multiple countries due to shutdowns
- Kazakhstan is closing down its two largest cities (despite only having 32 cases so far)
- A preliminary calculation by a US expert suggests that tens of thousands of premature deaths from air pollution may have been avoided by the cleaner air in China, far higher than the 3,208 coronavirus deaths.
- Jordan: the army has said it will deploy at entrances and exits of main cities in the kingdom in a move officials said was ahead of an imminent announcement of a state of emergency to combat the spread of coronavirus.
- In a joint statement, Facebook, Google, LinkedIn, Microsoft, Reddit and YouTube said they would help ensure people could stay connected to each other during isolation as well as fight any misinformation and fraud linked to the outbreak. “We are working closely together on Covid-19 response efforts,” the statement said. “We’re helping millions of people stay connected while also jointly combating fraud and misinformation about the virus, elevating authoritative content on our platforms, and sharing critical updates in co-ordination with government healthcare agencies around the world.
- Almost all Germans shops are about to close by government decree; supermarkets, pharmacies will remain open (including on Sundays when they are usually closed). Separately, government press briefings there have gone online only.
- Olympic organisers in Japan are asking people not to create crowds along the route of the Olympic torch relay and not to gather near the route if they feel sick. A Boeing aircraft flew to Greece on 15 March to bring the torch to Japan.
- France: No movement allowed except for essential work or health reasons. “There can be no more outside meetings, no more seeing family or friends on the street or in the park. We must slow the spread of this virus by limiting the number of people we are in contact with each day to the strict minimum. If we do not, we endanger the lives of those we hold dear.” said the French President Macron.
- Israel’s government has approved emergency measures to track people suspected or confirmed to have been infected with the coronavirus by monitoring their mobile phones, immediately raising privacy concerns in the country. The cabinet unanimously approved the use of the technology, developed initially for counter-terrorism purposes, in the early hours of Tuesday morning. The Association for Civil Rights in Israel said providing the country’s internal security agency, the Shin Bet, with new secretive powers was a “dangerous precedent and a slippery slope that must be approached and resolved after much debate and not after a brief discussion”.
- Indonesian president Joko Widodo said on Saturday that he had withheld some information about cases to prevent the country from panicking, the Jakarta Post reported. He has rejected calls for a lockdown to be imposed on hard hit areas.
- Malaysia has announced it's closing its borders prompting neighbouring Singapore's citizens to panic buy (90% of their food is imported from Malaysia).
- New Zealand on Tuesday deported its first unruly traveller flouting the country’s mandatory 14-day self-isolation rule for almost all arrivals, the health ministry said. The tourist, who had checked into a backpackers hostel in the city of Christchurch, was removed from the accommodation by the police after officials learned she did not have clear self-isolation plans.

Economics

Goldman Sachs doesn't think the stock market drops have finished - BusinessInsider says that Goldman Sachs thinks that the S&P 500 might plunge as low as 2,000 before recovering through the rest of the year, the investment bank wrote Friday. The level is the benchmark index's lowest since early 2016 and implies a 20% decline from Monday's open. Such a tumble would also place the index more than 40% below its February 19 peak. The coronavirus outbreak is responsible for "unprecedented financial and societal disruption," the analysts said, and equities have so far served as accurate leading indicators before the release of relevant earnings or macroeconomic data. That said, the analysts pointed out that "The lesson of prior event-driven bear markets is that financial devastation ultimately allows a new bull market to be born,".

U.S. factories are likely to close because of the coronavirus’ supply-chain shock - Marketwatch reports (link) that there is a very real chance that companies from auto makers to electronics manufacturers will soon begin to cease or limit production. With a downed China as the headstream of global manufacturing, mercantile America simply can’t function as it’s accustomed to. We’re starting to see this happen in official reports: The New York Fed’s Empire State business conditions index, released Monday, plunged by a record 34.4 points to minus 21.5 in March. And Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Sunday he expects a contraction in GDP in the second quarter. (Personal note: I expect similar problems across all G20 countries). The article goes on to explain that many supply chain directors may understand their first tier suppliers but often do not have full visibility of the status of their 2nd or 3rd tier suppliers

Supply impact of the coronavirus outbreak is waning, but demand shock will linger, economist says - CNBC says that in January and February, industrial output fell by 13.5% from the same period a year earlier, the weakest reading since January 1990 — when Reuters' record began. China's industrial production is likely to improve in March over a slump in January and February due to the coronavirus outbreak, but consumer demand will take longer to recover both in the country and globally, an economist said Monday. "We will see some recovery, but this recovery, I think, is being undermined by the global spread as well," said Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard. Meanwhile, retail sales in January and February shrank 20.5% from a year ago, compared with a 8% growth in December as fearful consumers avoided crowded places like malls, restaurants and cinemas. "We were worried about supply-side issues, but now it's becoming a demand shock issue," said Zhuang. Smaller outfits like restaurants and service-oriented businesses have "resumed work but there are no customers," said Zhuang. "I think we are going to see a delayed V-shape (recovery), and this V may be a tilted V or W, or even U. We are not sure," he added.

Coronavirus Impacts Every Sector of the Supply Chain - Supply and demand chain executive reports that the global supply chain continues to experience disruption. "We have seen that in the way that it’s spreading across into different hubs where we see alternative routes to be overly burdened, such as the rail system,” says Koray Köse of Gartner. “Now with the crisis and the hubs being closed and product movements are still active to some extent, but not necessarily from those regions, will become crowded and impacted. This means that there’s an additional strain on the overall network to move material.” Some products have experienced significant upticks including Chicken noodle soup (+37%), Hand sanitizer (+65%), Disinfecting Wipes: (+353%) and Cold & Flu medications (+197%) amongst others.

Coronavirus pandemic worse than 1997 financial crisis, Malaysian ex-PM Mahathir warns - The Strait times reports on Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, the former premier who steered Malaysia's recovery from the 1997 Asian financial crisis, expects the current coronavirus pandemic to hit the global economy even harder. "This is worse than the financial crisis," he said in a Bloomberg Television interview. "This is really a terrible blow to the economies of the whole world." Dr Mahathir joins other world leaders in warning that the virus impact may be worse than past periods of upheaval (Personal note: I pointed out yesterday the NZ PM also saying this).

Supply chain news relating to Covid-19

For Global Supply Chains the Worst Is Yet to Come - Supply Chain Management review says (Link) that most industrial companies have 30-60 days of parts and raw materials either on hand, in-transit, or obtainable on short notice. After these supplies run out, we will start to see shortages of finished products as well as parts needed to produce other goods. Shortages will start to become more evident toward the end of March and beginning of April. Production in some non-Chinese factories will have to be put on hold for lack of parts. Partially finished products will remain in suspension until all parts are available to build finished products. Some companies are pressing their engineers to redesign parts that can be sourced in the U.S., or at least outside of China. Other companies are giving 3D printing a serious try for the first time. The article goes on to point out delays in sea freight ex-Asia and extremely high airfreighting costs are exacerbating the situation.

U.S. Suspends Truck-Driving Limits to Speed Coronavirus Shipments - The Wall Street Journal reports as of 2 days ago that maximum working hours for truck drivers in the US have been suspended. This applies to truck drivers moving emergency supplies such as medical equipment, hand sanitizer and food in response to the nationwide coronavirus outbreak. It comes as hospitals report shortages of medical masks and as retailers and manufacturers are straining under surging demand for everything from hand sanitizer to staples such as toilet paper and rice. As anxious consumers stockpile goods, grocers have turned to rationing, imposing purchase limits on disinfectant wipes, cleaning supplies and other high-demand products. The move is the first time the FMCSA has issued nationwide-wide relief from hours-of-service regulations, although regional declarations have waived those rules in response to disasters such as hurricanes. Federal regulations limit most commercial truck drivers to 11 hours of driving time in a 14-hour workday, restrictions intended to reduce accidents caused by highway fatigue.

For supply chain companies, U.S.-Mexico border closures could be catastrophic - Marketplace points out that Mexico’s deputy health minister says he’s worried about people coming into Mexico from the United States; currently the U.S. has far more cases of COVID-19 than Mexico. The Mexican government even said it might consider restricting access at its northern borders. For businesses that operate on both sides of the border, any shutdown could be catastrophic. The article gives a case study of a manfacturer employing 150 people in Texas. The company president says before anyone considers closing the border, President Donald Trump and Mexico’s president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, should discuss a coordinated response to the virus. As for now, he says all of his people can work from home, if the situation calls for it. Everyone here has a laptop, he said. But he says the independent truck drivers and contractors who work on the loading docks, they have to be on site to run things. Those people also only get paid if they show up for work. So, for now, they’re glad the COVID-19 hasn’t shut this part of Texas down, yet.

It won't be long before Coronavirus shuts down local African supply chains - The major Kenyan newspaper daily nation reports that there are imminent difficulties facing Kenyan pharma firms due to the industry importing 70% of its ingredients from India and China, both of whom have restricted exports. Studies show that the Kenyan pharmaceuticals market is worth Sh100 billion ($965m USD), 80 per cent of which is prescription drugs. Although Kenya exports 50 per cent to the COMESA region and 75 per cent to East African Community, most of these exports are re-exports from India and China.

European automotive factories shutting down - Ferrari and Lamborghini have both suspended almost all production (says the Express and Star) whilst Yahoo Finance reports that Fiat Chrysler said in a statement on Monday 16 March that it would halt operations at most of its European plants, from now until 27 March because of an “interruption in market demand.” The Italian-American automotive group said the manufacturing stop includes six factories in Italy, the EU country worst hit by coronavirus. Italy has had over 24,700 infection cases so far, and more than 1,800 people have died from the virus. The PSA group, which includes Peugeot, Citroen, and Opel, said today it will close all its European plants, including in the UK, France and Germany for the remainder of the month too. German car giant Volkswagen is also suspending production at a number of manufacturing bases in Europe, including in Slovakia and Spain. VW-owned Seat has shuttered its main factory near Barcelona for at least the rest of the month. Meanwhile, according to the Financial Times, Volkswagen may also be forced to curtail production at the main factory in its home town of Wolfsburg, because of running low on parts.
Useful parcel courier current operational status links for anyone else in eCommerce:Canada Post, DHL Express, DPD, Fedex, Parcelforce, USPS. If anyone has any other major courier links for service status, please let us all know :)

Good news section
Amazon to hire 100,000 more workers and give raises to current staff to deal with coronavirus demands - CNBC says that Amazon is hiring an additional 100,000 employees in the U.S. to meet the surge in demand from online shopping amid the coronavirus outbreak, the company said Monday. The company is looking to add extra full-time and part-time positions for warehouse and delivery workers. Through the end of April, it will raise pay for these employees by $2 per hour in the U.S., £2 per hour in the UK, and approximately €2 per hour in many EU countries. Amazon currently pays $15 per hour or more in some areas of the U.S. for warehouse and delivery jobs. Amazon encouraged employees in other industries whose jobs were "lost or furloughed" as a result of the coronavirus to apply, including members of the hospitality, restaurant and travel industries. "We want those people to know we welcome them on our teams until things return to normal and their past employer is able to bring them back," the company added.

Educating in denial older relatives anecdote
Personal story time; my 69 year old Aunt is very grumpy because despite me telling her for well over a month, it is finally dawning on her that her dream guided coach bus tour of the West USA national parks in 10 weeks time is rapidly going up in smoke whilst my 75 year old Dad has realised his third cruise of the year (this time around the med) in 5 weeks time is also about to be toast. My Aunt complained on Facebook yesterday that nobody is mentioning the 46,000 people who have recovered from the illness and that "it's just a bit of flu". It isn't, otherwise governments around the world would not be reacting as they are.
If you have an elderly relative like mine who relies far too much on social media anecdotes rather than good quality fact based mainstream media, maybe point them at this businessinsider article here where it points out that 1) flu mortality rates are 0.1% vs. Covid-19 is 3.4% and 2) for 70-79 the mortality rate is 8% and for over 80's it's 14.8%. Hopefully they might just realise the seriousness of the situation; my Aunt dismissed it as "a website I've never heard of and won't believe" despite the article clearly citing CDC figures.

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Donations
Several asked if they can send me $/£/€ via Patreon (in some cases because I've saved them time or money, others for no reason at all). I don't need the cash (that's lovely though) but food bank charities are getting really hit hard with all this panic buying. Please consider giving whatever you'd have given me to a foodbank charity instead:
UK: https://www.trusselltrust.org/
France: https://www.banquealimentaire.org/
Germany: https://www.tafel.de/
Netherlands: https://www.voedselbankennederland.nl/steun-ons/steun-voedselbank-donatie/
Spain: https://www.fesbal.org/
Australia: https://www.foodbank.org.au/
Canada: https://www.foodbankscanada.ca/
USA: https://www.feedingamerica.org/
Thanks in advance for any donations you give. If there's foodbank charities in your country and it's not listed above, please suggest it and I will include it going forward.

EDIT: Missed out virus news in brief, added as of 12:45. EDIT 2: Added in the Dutch foodbank link (hat tip siliconfrontier)

Road to Taykhoo - This is the beginning of my realistic fiction story set in the fictional country of Teegia - let me know what you guys think!

Road to Taykhoo
Yegyar Beiraghan started hearing noises. A weird swishing sound and a tapping at his window. Tinkerings of music that didn’t seem to have a melody. Then, he woke up.
Yegyar was a 15 year old boy with a wiry build, dark brown wavy hair, gray eyes, and olive skin. Drowsy, tired, and frustrated from the short, six hour nap that was supposed to be sleep, he slowly turned his head to the electric clock on his nightstand, praying for it to be too early to get ready for the horrendous experience that was school. To his dismay, the bright, glowing red numbers on the black screen showed 7:41. He quietly cursed, making a mental note to himself to try to go to sleep earlier in the day. He knew he’d just end up staying till two in the morning anyway. Yegyar got up slowly; his whole body seemed to be in a mild malaise. Moving to the dresser, he pulled on his school uniform: navy chinos and a white polo with the school seal sewn on. Now dressed, he trod over to the heavy maple door of his bedroom and turned the brass handle.
Walking, or rather creaking, through the corridor, passing framed portraits of himself at two, at the pumpkin patch next to a scarecrow, at seven, holding a violin, and at twelve, in his soccer uniform, he thought of the day to come. Would Sengin, his crush, finally ask him out to the Winter Formal? He smiled to himself at the thought. It was supposed to be girls asking guys, but he wondered if he should try and ask her anyway. Trodding down the walnut stairs, he suddenly felt a sharp pinprick on the sole of his foot.
Wincing from the pain, he picked up the injured foot to survey the damage. He found an inch-long strip of hardwood lodged in. Gingerly, he tried pulling it out. He struggled to hold on to the tip of the splinter with his thumb and forefinger. He knew the right thing to do was to walk carefully to the bathroom and sort through the cabinet for a splinter-pulling instrument, but for some unknown reason, perhaps the thought of taking too much time locating the tweezers, he didn’t. Thumb and forefinger securely attached to the piece of wood, he pulled. Nothing. He pulled harder. It wouldn’t budge. Now he was using both hands to try and dislodge the wooden invader, and, to his delight, it finally came free. He picked it up, and felt giddy. He started to chuckle at it, the chuckle turning into a hearty laugh, and the laugh turning into a maniacal cackle. Suddenly, he realized he sounded like a psychopath. And a psychopath at this time in the morning! He looked around, behind him, in front of him, and listened for footsteps.
Good.
The coast was clear.
He tumbled down the rest of the stairs, all eight of them, and landed on the icy, frozen chill of the linoleum. A vague sense of dread and misty terror filled the foyer where he stood. There was nobody around. Yegyar ambled to the kitchen, and opened the cupboard. As usual, a musty, half-rancid, half-perfumed smell of clove, cinnamon, paprika, and stale crackers entered his nostrils. He rustled around for the box of granola bars, his favorite, and came upon it where it always was, behind the beans and next to the rancid crackers. Those expired squares of ground wheat were his father’s favorite, although he couldn’t figure out why. He reached in the box and felt a bar. Extracting it, he realized it wasn’t a bar, and rather just a wrapper. Puzzled, he stuck his head in the cardboard enclosure of the box and was shocked not to feel the cascade of granola bars on his nose.
“Hi, Yegyar. You’d better hurry up. It’s already 8:03.” Drat, he thought to himself. He shaved off twenty minutes just dressing and splintering about. He turned around and saw his mom with a cup of tea and the newspaper.
“Sorry, I’d thought I’d better throw those granola bars out,” she mentioned. “They have way too much sugar. I never noticed when buying them.” Something didn’t seem right to Yegyar. He thought of the empty wrapper in the box and felt a burst of anger well up inside of him.
“Then, why was there a wrapper in the box?” Yegyar asked. He instantly regretted it. His mom erupted into lecture mode, putting down the tea she was about to sip.
“Don’t talk back to me like that, young man. Do you see this roof over your head? Your father and I work very hard to support you. The least you could do is be grateful. Is that understood?”
“Yes, ma’am,” Yegyar murmured, but inside he was seething. His mom, relieved by the respectful tone of voice, relaxed and turned back into the pacific side of her demeanor.
“Good, I made you some oatmeal, but you’d better eat it quickly.” Yegyar chugged the ceramic bowl, the gloopy, bland oatmeal scorching his throat. It had a weird taste. What was it? Garlic? Yegyar had no time to ponder what his mother put in the oatmeal. He rushed to the door, pulled on his shoes, threw on his backpack, and out he went.
“Have a good day!” his mother screeched.
His legs pounding on the pedals of his MX-830 Falcon road bike, Yegyar felt the cruel, wintry bite of the early February air on his face. Squinting his eyes to protect them from the wind, drops of moisture froze on his eyelashes, turning himself into a part-snowman. He was cycling as fast as he could manage on the gravel-topped road connecting his house with the city. Spruces, weighted down with snow, bare birches, wide oaks, and lofty beeches with brown leaves clinging to lower branches, survivors from last spring, surrounded him. The land in Karsh-Gaiga would be frozen until Mid-April, when streams would come to life, buds on trees would give way to new, chartreuse leaves, and snow would be almost fully melted. In the distance, he saw Lake Aibashar, the largest in Teegia, frozen with indigo blue ice reflecting the vivid sky. The drone of a car flew past him and he thought how lucky the people in it were to be in the heated, cozy interior with warm light and comfortable seats. It was a pleasant enough journey in September, but right now he felt betrayed by his parents as to why he had to ride his bike in the -20 degree air.
The woods cleared out and he turned onto the bike lane on Provincial Road 104, or Raibenghan Avenue at this stretch of it. He passed Toghan Bookstore, whose owner was always kind to Yegyar and once in a while let him have a free book, Darkhin grocery, a small family-owned business run by a couple in their 60s, Lakeside Cafe, a high-end bistro, and Baibaran Bakery. He would’ve loved to have stopped by and picked up a warm almond bun there, but he didn’t have time.
Turning onto Yarankhan Street, he went by the Chalet-style houses, with their fluffy caps of snow and tall elm trees lining the street, coming together to form a tunnel that would be beautiful in the summer, but now was just a reminder of the deadness and brutality of winter, a cage of bare branches. In the distance, Yegyar could see his school, Taibarag Chaishenkhu High. It was named after a Teegian king who defended his homeland from the invading Chuffians. Supposedly, he also was extremely ruthless to his own subjects, ordering anyone who spoke against him to be executed, but they didn’t teach that in history class. The stone-clad building was two storeys, with a red corrugated tin roof, and engravings of snakes at the entrance, a fitting design for the teachers of the school. Yegyar screeched to a halt and locked his bike. He was relieved to see the throng of zombie-like students entering the building. He was one of them, joining the crowd. Seeing his friend Egun, his face lit up a little.
“What’s up, Yeg?” he greeted Yegyar. “You ready for the English test?” Yegyar almost paused in his tracks. He had totally forgotten about studying for the vocab test for English. It was like he was never informed of it. The vocab list was tucked away deep in his backpack between science lab reports and math homework. He cursed, sending a teacher’s scornful eyes his way.
“That’s today?” he asked. He hoped the answer was no.
“Yeah, you studied?” Yegyar told him he forgot.
“Don’t worry man, you can study at study hall,” Egun reassured him, and he was off to his first period. Yegyar knew that wouldn’t do anything for him as he stepped inside Mrs. Hainakhan’s English class.
Ch. 2
Yegyar entered the classroom, with helpful posters about synonyms, frequently misspelled words, dimmed lighting, and a lavender scented candle infusing its flowery scent. He grabbed a cardboard privacy fence at the table next to the door and made his way to his desk. He propped the fence on the fake plastic varnish of the plywood desktop. He knew he was doomed. Quickly, he grabbed a dull pencil from his backpack pocket and waited for the test to begin.
“I don’t want to see any vocab papers out. We’re going to start the test in two minutes,” Mrs. Hainakhan announced. She walked to her bureau and pulled out a stack of papers. Licking her finger every so often, she started passing out the tests. He saw his tablemate Chaigaran get his test and then he saw in front of him a slowly falling white piece of paper careening toward his desk. Dread filled him. Hopefully, the words wouldn’t be too hard. He read a lot, so maybe he saw most of these words before. He took a peek at the paper and saw:
Define these words and use in a sentence:
Adumbrate
Ebullient
Scurrilous
Probity
Inchoate
Vituperate
Turpitude
The dread that filled him grew deeper. He didn’t know any of them. They sounded like a different language and he desperately tried to decode anything that looked slightly familiar. His parents were strict on grades, and if he received anything below a 90, they would scold him. He didn’t know what would happen if he failed.
“You may start,” Mrs. Hainakhan notified the class. Three ominous words. Yegyar started to define adumbrate. “Useless or idiotic” he wrote. He saw the word “dumb” in it and thought that might’ve had something to do with the word. “The adumbrate man tried to erase his writing with his pen cap,” he wrote for the sentence. That was ironic. Yegyar was making a fool of himself; he could’ve just put “Yegyar was being adumbrate by forgetting to study for the vocab test.” Oh well, it probably wasn’t the right definition anyway, he thought. Yegyar turned around and saw a couple of students turning their papers in. Frustration and stress filled his mind. He forced himself to calm down, but he struggled with the rest of the definitions and moved on to the multiple choice. He did a little better there and thought he might just pass the test. Now most students had their privacy fences down and only a couple of them still were answering questions. With a heavy heart, Yegyar got up from his seat and stumbled to the collection tray, putting his test in. Mrs. Hainakhan assembled the papers and put them in her gradebook.
“Okay, everyone finished? We have five minutes left in class. I’ll pass out the Atokhen Bridge projects from last week. I was a little disappointed by the grades, you guys really need to work harder and focus on the story,” Mrs. Hainakhan said. Receiving his project, Yegyar was astonished at the large, crimson 75 circled on his project folder. He thought he had worked hard on his project and had expected at least a 90. He knew Mrs. Hainakhan was a tough grader, but he didn’t know she was that tough. He listened to the other student’s reactions. He was surprised to hear Teitengar, who usually struggled in school, get an 85.
“Bro, I got an 85! Let’s go!” Teitengar punched the wall in excitement.
“Nice job, man. I got an 87, not bad!” Nondraighan said. “Hey Yegyar, what’d you get? You’re really smart, I bet you got a 100.” Yegyar winced at his desk, turning away from the two boys. He didn’t want to ruin their expectations.
“No, Nondra. He’s probably sad. Hey Yegyar, a 95 is nothing to be ashamed of. You can tell us what you got!” Teitengar said reassuringly. They were used to Yegyar being low-key about his high grades.
“75.” Yegyar mumbled the grade. He was really ashamed.
“What was that, Yeg?” Nondraighan prodded.
“75.” Yegyar spit out the grade a little louder this time.
“What’d he say, Nondra?”
“He got a 75. Wow, that’s low. I feel bad for him,” Nondraighan told Teitengar.
“75? Wow, I’m smarter than Yegyar. What the heck, is this an alternate reality?” Teitengar questioned. Yegyar thought the same. Everything was going horribly so far, and it was only 9:30!
The bell rang, and Yegyar got up slowly, trekking to the door.
Math was pretty uneventful. Yegyar was good at math, and the class was doing two-step equations, so it wasn’t bad at all. Still, he felt put off and unmotivated by the day’s events. Feeling a little better after math, he made it to history. Mr. Wenyep was droning on about the Reforms of 1877 and the transfer of power from royalty to a democracy. Yegyar, and indeed about half the class were about to fall asleep in the beige room, with its maps of Aibashar and Teegia, posters of motivational sayings, and famous figures. There was a bobblehead of Eshkan Hencharkhei, a highly regarded man who helped found the national school system of Teegia, on Mr. Wenyep’s desk.
As Yegyar was drifting off into daydreaming, thinking about moving to a warmer place in this cold part of the year, suddenly he heard his name in a loud booming voice.
“Yegyar, can you tell me who was the first person to sign the Reformation Accord of 1877?” Yegyar tensed up, and it dawned on him that he didn’t listen to a thing Mr. Wenyep said. The stolid look Mr. Wenyep gave him wasn’t giving anything away, but Yegyar had an idea that he knew he wasn’t paying attention. Well, if he didn’t know the answer, he might as well add a little humor to the situation.
“Um, Mr. Hunyarkhui?” he said, serious in tone. Mr. Hunyarkhui was the principal of the school; many students joked about how old he was. The classes erupted into a giggle. Rashar, a large boy with round glasses who found everything funny, was on the verge of tears, his resounding chortle making the whole class laugh harder. Mr. Wenyep wasn’t laughing, he wasn’t even giggling. He didn’t find it funny at all.
“Mr. Beiraghan, you have disrupted my class and caused everyone to lose their focus. Detention. Tomorrow after school,” he reproached.
Yegyar sunk in his seat. Egun, sitting across the room, gave him a knowing glance. For the rest of the class, Yegyar felt humiliated and sensed his cheeks burning. After the bell rang, he got up and made his way to his homeroom. Egun caught up with him
“That was hilarious, Yeg. Too bad you gotta go to detention,” he said.
“It would be too bad if I went to detention,” Yegyar answered. The ideas of leaving this town were already forming in his mind.
In Ms. Leikhurun’s homeroom class. Yegyar sat at his desk listening and reading the announcements on the smartboard. As Ms. Leikhurun went on about track meets, food drives, fundraisers, bake sales, and the school musical, he thought about asking Sengin to the dance. He saw the announcement flash on the screen for ten seconds, and he knew he had to do it.
“Okay, that’s that” Ms. Leikhurun said, and went to grading papers. Yegyar caught a glimpse of Sengin, with her light brown eyes and black hair, and started to get up. As he was walking to her desk, he thought of what he should say. Hey, Sengin, what do you think about going to the winter formal with me? Simple, but it didn’t sound bad. He was two desks away when, Gaishenur, a tall boy with freckles and straight medium brown hair turned around and said in a half whisper,
“So, hey Sengin, the winter formal’s coming up, I was wondering if you’d like to go with me, if you haven’t asked anyone yet.” Blushing, she said that sounded great. Yegyar’s heart shattered. It felt like he was punched in the stomach. He turned around and went back to his seat, about to cry. He desperately maintained his composure. Still, the blow to his confidence was devastating. That tears it, he thought. First the splinter, then the test, then the bad grade, then the detention, and now this?
“Oops, guys, I almost forgot. I gotta hand out your report cards.” Oh no, Yegyar thought. Something’s bound to go wrong. Ms. Leikhurun went around the class handing cards first to Iduran, Cheigin, and Atanga and now making her way to him. The 7x5 envelope fell to his desk, holding the potential to ruin or repair his school life. He didn’t want to look at it, so he slipped it into his backpack.
Lunch was his solace from the brutality of the day. He unpacked his lunch and ate the delicious barley and beans with chicken in silence. He thought to himself, I need to get out of here, everything’s been going wrong. But where should I go? He thought of the cold, barren wasteland that was Karsh-Gaiga for half of the year. He wanted life, warmth, and energy. Taykhoo, the nearly tropical megacity in the south of Teegia where oranges and pineapples grow, beckoned to him.
The rest of the day was as crummy as the part before it. In Ancient Teegian class, he spoke in English while he wasn’t supposed to. In chemistry class, the teacher yelled at him for breaking a beaker and spilling toxic fluid on the lab table. In orchestra, he couldn’t stay together with the rest of the group. He biked home utterly exhausted and angry.
Ch. 3
Yegyar entered the red wooden house in no mood to talk.
“Hi, Yegyar, how was school?” his mother asked. She couldn’t even begin to understand how horrible it was.
“Jim-dandy.”
“That’s good, Yegyar. I heard from your homeroom you got your report card today.” How did she know that? He pondered it for a while and came to the conclusion that she must’ve gotten an email.
“We’ll open it after dinner, okay?” his mother said. He agreed and continued to his room. Inside he was fearful. It shouldn’t be too bad, right? He had been getting less than perfect grades recently, especially in English.
Now in his room, with its white walls, posters of the periodic table and the Ikhai Ice (a basketball team), the Teegian flag, a globe, a bookshelf to the right of his bed, and his nightstand and dresser to the left, Yegyar sat on his bed and opened his backpack. He went through it, taking everything out: projects, homework, forms, tests, quizzes, bellwork, pens, pencils, erasers, notebooks, folders, and binders. And his report card. He weighed it in his hand, worried. He got into a panic, pacing the room. He thought, what will happen if the grades are bad? Should I care? He had such a bad day that not very much mattered to him anymore. His mind became increasingly nihilist as he paced. He turned on his laptop and searched “Taykhoo.” He read up on it, reading about the climate and people. It sounded great. There were trendy and cultural areas in parts of the city that he would love. Not like bland old Karsh-Gaiga. The weather was great, warm for 10 months of the year and cool for 2 months. Palm trees lined the streets and cafe culture presided everywhere. There was a great public transportation system, with metro, ferries, light rail, bus, commuter rail, and high-speed rail. For the next two hours, he watched videos and played games on his laptop (the phone he had was his mom’s former phone, which was at least as old as he was). Settling in to play another round of Battleground X on his laptop, his mom burst into his room, sending a shock wave of cold wind to his face.
“Hey, Yegyar, dinner’s ready.” She glanced at Yegyar playing his computer game. “Oh, and you know I don’t like you playing those games. I hope you did your homework. Come on, it’s bean pods and beef pancakes.” That didn’t sound too bad after a long day at school. He trundled down the stairs, careful not to step on any splinters, and met with his father at the dinner table. His dad was helping himself to a few bean pods, making loud crunching and slurping noises like a pig. It hurt Yegyar’s ears, and every so often he would make fun of his dad’s chewing by imitating it. His mom clanked a red porcelain plate at his place, and he took a couple pancakes and a ladleful of beans. He ate quietly, mulling over the day’s events. How could it get this bad?, he thought. He drank some water, letting the cool, smooth trickle hydrate his parched mouth. His parents were drinking hot cinnamon tea. It smelled good, but Yegyar was never a fan of it. They continued eating for the next twenty minutes. Yegyar, relishing the food as relief from the day.
“So, Yegyar, how ‘bout that report card?” his father probed. “You have it here?” Yegyar shook his head and ran upstairs to fetch it. His eyes traveled around the room and he spotted it on his bed. Picking it up, he walked back slower than when he came, his heart rate increasing. His parents coming into view from the foyer, he started getting nervous, his palms becoming clammy. He handed it to his dad.
“Let’s see here,” his dad said. He ran his thumb under the seal, tearing it open. Picking the card up and holding it out a couple feet from his face, his eyes widened. Shock, then anger flooded into his face, which turned as red as a freshly boiled lobster. He sort of looked like one too, with tiny round eyes like black orbs set in his bowling ball shaped head.
“What is this, Yegyar?! A 79 in English, a 83 in Science, and a 88 in Orchestra! In Orchestra, Yegyar! How is that even possible?! I thought we raised you better! Oh my gosh-” and his father held his face in his hands.
“Look at your father, Yegyar! Look what you’ve done! See how he feels, you made him that way! Unbelievable, a 79 in English!” Yegyar turned around, angry tears forming. It was impossible. It never occurred to him that his grades were slipping. Anyway, who cared? His parents didn’t care about his livelihood, only about his grades! Is that what parents are for? It’s not even what teachers are for! He stormed up the stairs and ran down the corridor into his room. Turning on his laptop, he started to pound on the keyboard in frustration when he heard footsteps come up the stairs.
“You should be done with your homework by now, Yegyar. I’m very disappointed in you. You let this family down. What a shame, our only son!” his mom said with a heavy sigh. If it was supposed to make Yegyar ashamed of himself, it wasn’t working. In fact, he was angry at them. Just as he was about to unpause the movie, he heard a slam of a door and loud arguing for his parents room. Although muffled, he could make out most of what they were saying.
“God, what a disappointment! You should’ve really raised him better, Maigin!”his father yelled.
“Me?! where were you when I was trying to take care of him?! He’s abominable, and he’s getting worse!” his mom retorted.
“You know, you’re right, I don’t even want him! What a disgrace, sitting around in his room all day! How about some recognition of our care! The spoiled brat!”
“You don’t want him?! I don’t want him either, you take him!” his mother hissed.
His father sputtered in exasperation. “No, you! You’re the one who “raised” him!” he said in a mocking tone. His father’s inflection sent an icy grip of anguish that felt like the Ross Ice Shelf was collapsing on Yegyar.
This was too much for Yegyar. It was unbearable to hear. If they didn’t want him, then he didn’t want them either.

Let's talk about what went wrong with the Battle Pass

This is going to be a complaint thread, and I apologize ahead of time for that. I understand that for thousands if not millions of people, the Battle Pass is a fun way to engage with a game that they really love. I don't think the basic concept of a Battle Pass or Compendium is inherently a bad thing. Many other games have copied Dota's system, because it's fun to have a time-limited event where you can purchase access to additional content. However, there are some serious flaws with the system as it stands, and I think we all need to take a closer look at the horrible design decisions Valve has made with the 2020 Battle Pass.
FLAW NUMBER ONE: Exponential Leveling Experience
The primary way to level up your Battle Pass is by paying for it directly. This is a great system, and I have no complaints with it. But there are other ways to get Battle Points. Here is where we run into our first and most glaring design flaw: The higher your level is with the Battle Pass, the more levels you get for free.
Many people claim that it's greed that drives Valve to stretch out the Battle Pass rewards to greater tiers and levels, but it's actually this effect, which I'll call "exponential leveling." While each level is a static 1000 battle points (good), each level becomes easier to gain than the previous, due to things like additional treasures, additional portals, additional spins, higher points cap, more tokens for betting on match outcomes, more token multipliers, etc.
Exponential leveling creates a bad experience for two reasons. The first is that players who buy a lot of levels quickly run into a situation where they are spoiled with far more levels and rewards than they could ever need or want, and the second is that players who buy no levels quickly run into a situation where grinding the battle pass for free points feels like a chore. It's not fun either way.
In the 2021 Battle Pass, I hope to see level-up content be available to ALL players at level 1. NO battle points from treasures, NO high roller point increase, NO aghanim's labyrinth point cap increase, NO tip increase, and NO point tribute bonuses.
FLAW NUMBER TWO: Obligate Grinding Experience
This one might be specific to me. The Cavern Crawl system is fun, and justly beloved, and this year's system was a marked improvement on the previous, thanks to the inclusion of categories like female, nice pecs, bad teeth, and fuzzy. I would certainly like to see it return (though I hope they rename it appropriately for 2021). But even so, it still represents a massive win-grinding experience, in a game that regularly takes over an hour from "Find Match" to the results screen. This year's Battle Pass, in my opinion, had an inappropriate focus on winning hundreds of games in order to engage with the Battle Pass in a way that most people would find satisfying. From the pre-match betting system to the Guild quest system, the Battle Pass demanded 1 high-quality win per day, with additional restrictions on that victory that might require you to start the queue up again to try for another win.
Alongside the time-locked guild quests and weekly betting tokens, the Aghanim's Labyrinth weekly point cap created a strange perverse incentive to interact with the mode. Rather than simply play the game in an attempt to win, players were encouraged to stop playing once they'd reached their weekly point cap and resume their attempts next week. A similar incentive exists with high roller and guild quest rewards, to a slightly lesser extent. The 2020 Battle Pass forced you to play the game on its terms, and that's not necessarily a good thing.
In the 2021 Battle Pass, I hope to see a removal of time-limited rewards that disappear at the end of the week/day/month. High Roller tokens that don't disappear when the week ends. Quests that are available whenever, to be completed at a player's leisure. I think these systems really contribute towards making the BP feel fair and rewarding, instead of a constant grind to get as many points as you can before they disappear.
FLAW NUMBER THREE: Accessory Reward Experience
The consumable system was once again...pretty scuffed. On top of the exponential leveling experience listed above (players who bought levels felt oversaturated with consumables, while players who didn't quickly ran out), portals felt inappropriately important and nothing else mattered. The soccer and pepper minigames were okay, and the disco ball was occasionally interesting, but at the end of the day, the consumables didn't interact with gameplay OR the Battle Pass in a way that players find satisfactory. Of the four consumables, only the portals granted rewards if you don't count the soccer achievements. Only the portal and the pepper were usable outside of the pregame. The entire experience of the consumables and the side shop was lackluster and frustrating, particularly for people who bought a lot of levels and thus had HUNDREDS of these stupid things lying around. (This is another example of the exponential leveling/reward experience I listed above.)
In the 2021 Battle Pass, I hope to see an equalization of consumables across all battle pass levels, especially if they're going to give points and rewards. Something like +35 per week. I also hope to see better integration of consumables into gameplay and Battle Pass rewards, though not in a way that encourages people to get in lobbies to grind them out. For example, all consumables could have an equal chance of granting levels or treasures when they're placed, and they could be designed in such a way that using them when making plays would be considered style points.
I know that's a big ask, but I personally believe that the consumable system is FAR more important to people's enjoyment of the Battle Pass than anything else, even the quality of the rewards you get.
FLAW NUMBER FOUR: FOMO Arcana/Persona Experience
The FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) flaw is well documented above, but I believe it to be particularly egregious in the case of Arcanas and Personas. It is one thing to offer something to Battle Pass owners as a bonus for purchasing and interacting with the Battle Pass. It is quite another to not only lock permanent content behind a Battle Pass but also to lock it behind a level that could be considered an extreme investment. The Windranger Arcana will never be available, ever, to anyone who didn't buy the Battle Pass and level it up to 575. A similar problem exists for the Invoker persona and Io arcana.
Exclusive rewards are definitely not a bad thing. But demanding over a hundred dollars for the Windranger Arcana is enough to make anyone cock an eyebrow. It doesn't matter that you also get the QoP and WK arcanas and the AM/Pudge personas, because you CANNOT get the WR arcana without paying that money.
This is my one and only direct address to Valve: Put the arcanas and personas on the market. $35 each. I know that some people will be frustrated that they shelled out for an exclusive set only to find that the set became non-exclusive, but that number will only increase with time and you have to fix your mistake ASAP while it's still fresh. Make them "not tradeable, giftable, or marketable," make their only point of access be your store directly as a direct skin purchase (or purchase-as-gift), and make that your precedent going forward. Please.
FLAW NUMBER FIVE: Ending the Battle Pass/Moving Forward
Listen. I know this is a lot of complaining. I do want to say here that I really enjoyed the Battle Pass. Even though there is some stockholm syndrome, quarantined all summer with nothing to do but play video games, I had a ton of fun and the rewards from the Pass were very high quality. Voice lines, taunts, sets, seasonal effects, achievements, even the fun little ping upgrades were all great to use and just made this summer feel different and exciting. And I understand to a degree why stuff like the voice lines aren't available year round. But it's extremely jarring to have content just...disappear forever. Especially paid content. Especially especially paid content that's just going to pop back up next year, at cost.
The Guild system and Aghanim's Labyrinth both represent content that should be a permanent part of Dota. Removing it once the Battle Pass ends is evidence of a certain kind of myopia from Valve. I'm not going to sit here and bullshit to you that "Valve doesn't care about their game" or "It's all greed" because I can tell that the amount of love, time, and energy put into the Battle Pass is enormous. I have zero doubt that the devs and designers work extremely hard to bring us a fresh new Battle Pass every single year that they hope will be worth the money we spend on it.
Many people complain that the BP "isn't worth it" or "provides less every year," but that's not true. If anything, the Battle Pass provides too much. Hundreds of hours of time from devs and artists goes into creating and balancing these alternate modes and systems at scale, and they all disappear forever once the Battle Pass ends. It's disrespectful to the hard work of these skilled professionals for Valve to remove their content from the game completely. Granting Battle Points for playing these alternate modes is one thing, but surgically joining them to the Battle Pass is quite another!
I hope to see a return of alternate modes and systems from previous years (perhaps SiltbreakeUnderhollow/Aghslab/Diretide and the like can go into a separate tab on the Arcade page for "official" modes? Or a new "Arcade" tab above "Custom Lobbies" in the Play Dota menu?).
I also hope to see Guilds become a permanent feature. I don't want to distract too much from the main point of this post, but Guilds was a fantastic new-player-experience system. It's shocking and frustrating to see it leave, as if meeting new Dota players to befriend is a premium feature that is unimportant to the health and staying power of the game. If this is how the year of the "New Player Experience" ends, it's hard to feel optimistic about the future of Dota.
CONCLUSION
These are my complaints. There is certainly more to be said about the Battle Pass system, but I think a lot of that veers into personal opinion and very minor quibbling (ex. I didn't know the BP was going to hard-end yesterday lol, I thought that you just weren't going to be able to buy points for the last week - ended up level 556). I think the flaws I listed are both serious enough to merit discussion and specific enough that you could reasonably expect Valve to address them with improvements to the 2021 Pass.

ZCode System Reddit - Review and Discount

I am about to post the 3000 most common words in the English lexicon. Wish me luck...

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Inplay Model results update

TIFU by getting half my dick caught in my zipper on a double-date with her parents and meeting my mom's friend at the doctor's office.

Managed to reach rank 40 just in time! And I’d like to mark the occasion by reviewing every single event!

Covid-19 update Tuesday March 17th

Road to Taykhoo - This is the beginning of my realistic fiction story set in the fictional country of Teegia - let me know what you guys think!

Let's talk about what went wrong with the Battle Pass

ZCode System Reddit - Review and Discount

So just what is Zcode System anyway?

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I am about to post the 3000 most common words in the English lexicon. Wish me luck...

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